Clown's 2007 outlook is work in progress

[De starter]

@ Clown : Thanks, my "hekjes" are doing the job

I'll watch the red line..... Might close the hekjes there if i see confirmation

 

[cold or warm]

Entry until proven otherwise ?

Maybe this was a entry allready.

KvKd

Edit day hold above 50 RSI ( not end of day ! )

 

[albee]

Have a nice weekend
Cheers

@ Clown and all of you: hope you have a nice weekend too,
(with Mamaloo..)

 

[Pacito]

Unmeasurable indicator

We have a lot of indicators to choose from. The draw back of most indicators is that they come from the same source: price, volume, time. What we need are indicators that come from different sources. If you have a reliable indicator on price and time, for instance the RSI, Stochastics, MACD or DMI, it's not necessary to use them all, because the source they come from is the same. What you need is an indicator from another source, or at least partly from another source. It would be nice if you can do some calculating with them. That's the reason we have Elliot Wave. It has price and time alright, but also human behavior. Calculating can be done with Fibonacci, a method totally derived from nature. For the same reason we have Gann. Also price and time, but with a correlation that's quite different from the other indicators. Combining those different indicators should bring us to a more educated guess of what is going to happen.
I suggest another indicator. I find it hard to calculate with it, but in my opinion it adds to the overall view. Headlines or news or publications, whatever you like to call it, in combination with price reaction. We all know about the tradedeficit in the US and worry about it. We all know about the shrinking housing market in the US, and are worrying about it. We all know about the immense amount of dollars being printed, and are worrying about it. Oil is getting more expensive, interest rates are moving up, reverse long versus short interest rates. And so on. The market must go down, only it doesn't.
What I'm reffering at is the reaction in price following such headlines. What we see most of the times is a very short reaction, if at all, and a continuing price. As long as those publications are neglected, the mood is up. You can see the same when prices are going down. How good a publication may be, it is neglected. Then the mood is down. I know that Elliot Wave is based on the same principle, but it doesn't really take those effects into account on a short term. We all see those things and it disturbs us. That's why the saying is: the markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Turn it around and say: as long as irrationality is going on, the trend remains the same.
Are we the only one's that feel that way, because we are so much smarter than the rest? No, it's just the mentality of the herd. Climbing a wall of worries. Will there be a change? Of course there will be a change. The beginning will be the negative interpretation of good news. I know that's a point of discussion. For me, more jobs and less jobless claims are good news, while................ I haven't found a way to quantify this, but maybe someone with enough courage to read my sundayafternoon thoughts, can find a solution for this.
What we saw last week was a reaction on publications, which was wiped out the next day. So, bad figures were neglected again.
In the AEX you can see that in the price, candlesticks or whatever you like to use. In the DMI there was a crossing due to this. In my opinion, just fear, the next move was up again.
Have a nice day,
Pacito

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Week 20.

If you care to look back a few weekly’s ago, the wave 4 now seems to be completed at the last Friday low 521,10. Yes Sir I know we still require some form of confirmation as the intraday chart left us with a page 58 and a Technical Analysis New School signal. And the indicators show that the run up was a bit too much within the given time so think of it in the sense that we are offered an other excellent trading opportunity.

The dynamic intraday short term fractal range trend mode has changed from negative into positive late Friday afternoon, so the above mentioned signal needs to unwrap within the positive trending modus of operandi in order to become obsolete. So that’s going to be our toy to play with in this weeks trading roadmap.

As I have been putting quite some time into the Astro Finance Analysis you probably can imagine that last week I had a blast with my moment of “the festivity of Astro Finance recognition”. All the hard work seems to be going in a direction where it will contributing positively to the Analysis package. I realize there is skepticism all over as it comes down to using Astronomy in trading and reading the known chips publications you can’t be blamed at all. Be realistic most Technical Analysis publications are chips from the bull as well so don’t give in so easily.

Recently I read a book on some trading stuff and my attention was drawn to a more psychological approach. When markets are at multiple year highs (like the AEX) or even all time highs (like the DJIA) you should be aware of the mindset of the participants. Think about it for a minute. There is literally no trader or investor who entered the market who has had any serious loss to deal with. Okay if you want to be a nag I can think of one or two as well, they are gathered at the local country website having tea. Generally spoken the mindset is clear and you should use that mindset to look for clues to back-up an uptrend rather than a down trend.

Have fun.

 

[albee]

@Clown:
Yes sir, i agree
I've got something with a five , a six and a zero point xx.
Youre question about new schole ta: you teached me yourself sir.
About the entry: maybee 524 will be right, but i wonder if we'll see this again before the next fourteen days.
Have a good trip.

 

[The Dutch Clown]

De Kipjes zijn rustig in het Kot

@ Albee,
Just one bird in the sky does not make it…. Something like an encouragement to find the rest of the signals as well; like the one with a five , a four, and well and even the one with the five, the one and yes you know the drill. There is more information available to you in your charts that together form a puzzle.

When your puzzle does not provide a picture that you can trade the P ones on maybe an other one might help.

 

[Pacito]

picture talks >1k words

Keep in mind that the actual turn might be delayed 2-3 weeks.
Pacito

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Dinsdag 15 mei

The more knowledgeable one becomes the more information needs to be processed and one of the phases in the evolution is that you get the feeling there are only conflicting signals in your Analysis. The Technical Analysis New Signaling provided both P and N signals so in order to get some grip on the actual situation you will be needing something additional to answer if it’s going to be the P or the N that wins.

The easy way out is to turn to the Elliott Wave Analysis and have a closer look at the wave internals. The 521,10-533,72 is an impulsive wave up and we should therefore be looking at the 533.72 piece as a corrective wave down. To help yourself through this wave you can use the Fibonacci retracement levels.

The Derivative Oscillator has come of it’s relatively high value compared and has arrived to the make or brake area where decisions will have to be made. The dynamic intraday short term range fractal trend modus continues positively trending and my indicators showing the relatively high value last Friday now allow some movement upwards.

Have fun trading to WIN.

EDIT:1
The dynamic intraday short term range fractal trend modus has changed its modus from positive into negative and the AEX Bulls now will have to start delivering. The Fibonacci retracement levels show us that there remains a negotiating margin for the Bears.

EDIT:2
Once again I basically don’t look at the fundamental stuff when trading for direction since nobody seems to be able to tell what the action/reaction game is and even the “specialists” find it perfectly normal that the identical facts produce totally different action\reaction. The one thing I do consider is the potential volatility increase caused by the publication of economic data.

My toolset indicates we are in for some of that trading chips however it’s a bit early as the data is not yet available.

 

[Blinker]

Schermindelingen

There are many way's to identify a trend. Thats for the direction, it says nothing about the strenght of the trend. Luckely there are also a few indicators which give a glimp of the strenght.

I'm trying something new. First picture is my "old" screen, second my latest.
The old one is the fti with the AEX. Second is only the AEX. The blocks may give an answer where the support and resistance can be found. We are nearby daily support....

Edit:
The daily support (3th picture) did it's work. We are in a new (intraday) up-trend. Enjoy the ride.......

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Woensdag 16 mei

This morning it was impossible to get on the T2W site until just now so it was not possible to drop these lines before opening.

The Tuesday economic data release did in fact provide volatility. The dynamic intraday short term range fractal trend modus that had been changed into negative again in the morning changed again into positive after the move up. The movement was a bit too much with the given time so the indicators need some cooling down and the trend modus shows the direction.

The infamous page 58 is once again shown in your intraday chart and resulted in one of the Technical Analysis New School signals. So from a trading perspective this is an extremely interesting phase since the best trading signals according to rule number one in the Traders Almanac are occurring frequently.

Have fun trading to WIN.

EDIT:1
The Fibonacci knot you see in the attachment seems to be playing its role and the Derivative Oscillator signaling will generate the confirmation or initiate the stop-win process. If you want to realize the P-trades the entry point is the difference and pin-pointing it, is a critical exercise, you will have to be able to find the nuances in a chart. The Dutch have a saying something to do with laughing and the last one for the ignorant who could not yet combine the time stamp of the censured message and the actual price chart on the board.

Cheers.

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Hemelvaart

The Yank’s had to regroup a bit after scoring the first level of Technical Analysis New School targets just a bit too long for us so they pushed us into an overshoot. The DJIA is now targeting the next level of the new school beauties so let’s see if we can catch up. Thursday and Friday I have other interests to pursuit as well so I will not play the market actively.

Attached the projected range fractal of the EOD chart in which the AEX is currently trending positively.

Have fun trading to WIN.

EDIT:1
The Elliott wave Analysis is identifying complex corrective wave patterns amongst the more straight forward ones. One brief look at the second attachment should bring you up to speed. My indicator tool set told me the AEX price was high towards the economic data release and the action/reaction play acted accordingly. Given the present dynamic intraday short term range fractal trend modus which is positive I prefer finding a new entry within this modus unless it changed.

EDIT:2
Something to do with a trend is a friend. The Elliott Wave complex corrective wave version has arrived in the area (537) at the first level targeting, especially for GJN I will include the next level (543) please note this is the third wave of five providing of course this is the pattern that is going for the finish. The price\time matrix has to regain potential for the next move within the trend so given the Elliott options I would prefer a wave 4. The number of pattern options left are limited however still four and they differ in the level of wavelength and time, chips that’s price and time once more. The Astro Finance Analysis shows bull influence for today and large bear influence this Sunday and this is one of my objections since we do not trade Sunday’s. Monday bull influence developing again for what it’s worth.

@Blinker
Someone explained to me that trending relates to Resistance and/or Support in the opposite direction as it comes down to relevance. Your found trend upwards therefore should relate to support rather than resistance just have a look at your desktop should make you connect.
Include a) page 58 of your book, b) the derivative oscillator that assisted you this morning and probably will provide next signaling as well, c) and don’t forget to look at the bright stars over the weekend.

Cheers.

 

[rentenier]

back on the web

The AEX broke today a TDtrendline upwards (green), which gives a target around 544. But it is not certain the AEX will reach this goal. There is also a TDtrendline (red) with downward potential and the momentum indicators are bearish. I am more confident if we stay above 532,5 tomorrow.

 

[Blinker]

Neer en op

The trend is up, maybe to fast, but still up....
On my desktop I see we are at the end of daily resistance. If this brakes we are also near weekly resistance (540,05)
We stay above the white line. Still moving up. That's a strong sign.

In the second attachment you can see why we wait.

Success.....

Edit:
@Clown, sure you're right. Wasn't forgotten. My newest (support)trendline is the white line in the attachment. That one's up.
Both support and resistance I refere at is also shown in the same picture. Because it's new for me I want to know how strong chuch is. For now the dailyresistance hold.
The page 58 gave a nice sign. What I also found in several charts is the date 23th of May. What does the stars say about that date?

In the picture you find my end chart of the May fti.

Good luck and have a nice weekend.......

Blinker

 

[albee]

Thank you sir...

wauw, S&P a target at +/-1520?
then, i suppose can aex to 543-545 not be too far..

its not that i feel myself such a good boy,
it is just the highest kind of amazing you can imagine.
thanks for teaching me Dutch Clown, i really see 1520+ on the S&P.

 

[albee]

hoi Pacito, your time is coming........

 

[rentenier]

Looking at the AEX I saw a more descriptive trend channel (yellow), than yesterday. The picture also shows the higher fibo levels (I am still dreaming about 575).

 

[albee]

i don't know, but a short squeeze is still an opportunitie.
i am thinking (and looking) for/ about it.
watch your charts. The mesuring of a target (560.xx) for the AEX is a fact. Only time is the complicating factor.(something with a four, a five and xx is also in sight)
Hope you can help me to interpretate time clearly.
(there is negative div.in some charts, but this could make you a poor man or women if you only pay attention to ND).

 

[Pacito]

Are we talking about the same thing?

Let's see what's wrong. First, I'm a believer of the TA, because it refers to human behavior. Human behavior is one of the things that didn't change much in the evolution. The same thing can be said for Elliot Wave analysis and Gann. But, and here comes the tricky point, when we apply those instruments, do we apply them to the same things. It seems very logical to refer to data from the past, as for instance the supportlines and resistancelines in the AEX. What we seem to forget is that the AEX has changed within itself. It doesn't show the same companies as 3, 4, 5 years ago. Good for us that the most influential companies are still there, but arcelor-mittal will have another pattern than getronics had. Then the companies themselves. You can hardly say that philips from 5 years ago is the same company today. Same for ahold. So it seems we are applying instruments, shaped for a steady state, to an item that has changed within itself. It's not that the instruments fail, it's the proposition that can fail. How can we overcome such differences with the past? Is it enough to take the fractals and enlarge them to see where the inconsistences are? Simply said, project an hourly over the daily or the weekly or the monthly, or a minute over.... and so on. Or should we take for instance the AEX from 5 years ago, keep the same companies in it and follow the develloping of the index. The same for 4 years ago, 3 years ago, and so on. Or should we take the AEX apart and register the change in the companies themselves. Then putting the whole thing together again and look for the differences. I think that all those trics together would give us a better insight and a more reliable way to spot future developments and inefficiencies in the market. I think it can be done, but it's a lot of work, and sometimes hard to qualify.
Let me know what you think about it.
Pacito

Nothing goes without a picture.
Albee, ND means to me also no deal. It can remain for months. By the time it takes effect you may be broke.

II The thoughts refer to long term tops and bottoms. If you use charts after march 1st, the AEX didn't change, only the companies within like philips selling a part, or reed elsevier selling a part. More like reaching a top from 2002 as the AEX was different then.

2nd thumbnail: Most optimistic view for this year. I realize there is a big difference between the two pictures. But I have to take into account different possibilities. There's also a similarity. The top halfway through this year and the bottom in september.

 

[albee]

Pacito, as you said as a believer of TA, all changes are pictured in your charts. So i don't think it would give any sence to calculate with numbers you don't have (p.e.getronics).
All changes are written in your charts and we've got to do it with them.(thats why they are charts).

@Pacito: let's go for the most optimistic vieuw this year;-))