Clown's 2007 outlook is work in progress

[The Dutch Clown]

Vrijdag 27 april

The EOD chart short term trending modus changed from positive into negative trending on Thursday so we have to look at our chart from that perspective. Nothing dramatically since the dynamical way the trending modus is generated and the short term timeframe more something like an early warning. The actual trend fractal allows a bit more trading margin as the attachment shows. The Technical Analysis New School signal remains active although it was in fact a close call the signaling potential is substantial.

Have fun trading to WIN.

@Rentenier
Attachment 2 ..... zo iets?

EDIT1:
Next opportunity is developing in our intraday chart which is short term dynamically trending negative. In the current range fractal 10-11u : 531,39 <AEX< 535,34 we are going to look for a Long entry when confirmed by the peer resistance in the Derivative Oscillator. Easy does it so don’t be trigger happy entering.

@Rentenier.
Hourly REI current trading signal is qualified mild to severe/extreme.
Did some EOD yesterday see attachment. Mind you also New School signaling should apply.
Fine tuning in settings still pending and I am playing with an additional signaling as well.
@Rentenier krijg nou tiete.... countdown.... attachment 5

EDIT2:
All the pieces of our puzzle are forming a serious indication for the trading signal. However one piece, the Elliott Wave Count, holds to it’s initial outlook and points towards first 531 and secondly the 528 which would implicate the weeks low under the Tuesday low. Now I have to be a fundamentalist for once and take in account the economic data release, yeah I know it’s not very much TA like, sorry about that it’s just that the trading to WIN part starts with the right entry point. By the way I hate just lying in the Sun and my Study has a comfortable temperature.

 

[rentenier]

...

@Rentenier
Attachment 2 ..... zo iets?

...

That looks good. The turning points maybe right on time. Of course more research has to be done to trust that signal. I look at the EOD signal to find trend changes (divergence). But if it works intraday also, it would be useful in a trading strategy.

Thanks

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Week 18.

The number one question is without any doubt, is wave 4 completed on the week 17 low 529,05 yes or no. The overall wave analysis answers that question with yes the intraday trading on Friday could not get the Long trading position confirmed during opening so had to be closed. Something to do with money at the bank ready to spend versus the virtual stuff one just dreams about. And digging into the waves shows the Friday trading findings, if wave 4 has been completed there is not yet confirmation. The overall outlook a bit further down the road is becoming a bit more clear and the puzzle pieces are being completed to form shape in such a way that the end result is less vague.

Some weeks ago I published the Bear and Bull influence from the Astro Finance perspective which are now coming into effect.

Have fun trading to WIN.

 

[Dominique]

Interesting to see that DEMark's techniques are used now, here are some artickles about his trendline method, the sequential fast count and slow count, just missing an article about the TDCombo.

http://www.guppytraders.com/Metastock Formulas/Thomas DeMark SS.doc
http://www.technicalanalyst.co.uk/demark.pdf
http://www.forumfxcmfrancais.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=54&d=1147853742
http://www.marketmulticycles.com/
http://www.akmos.com/software/afmcharts/indicators/demarker.html
http://www.boerse-und-finanzen.de/handelssystem/td-rei.html
:!: http://crawford.vrgroup.info/members_new/presentations/tdtrendlines.pdf :!:

If anybody need a lot of indicators for Amibroker, just give a yell.

rentenier, watch out for the protrader graphics, they aren't always accurate.

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Geen spijker in mijn kop maar wel in de band van mijn auto

oeps

oeps oeps had some problems editing.... first chart is gone.... hate it when a site changes the operating stuff.... second picture contains first ones data.... now have to look at that editing...

test

oeps oeps oeps.... problem is that editing an attachment that has the same name replaces the first so... well what can I say... it's a bug...

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Donderdag 3 mei

It’s a bit deserted here so one might think the Forum changes have a negative impact. Well change used to be my friend in the past however the majority of people does not like any form of change at all.

The Elliott wave count still keeps the downside option open and if we look at the market starting at the weeks low we can identify a corrective three-way movement. Mind you don’t pay any attention to the red and green arrows I am working on filtering trading signals by combining indicator derivative signaling but have not yet found a set of rules that meet my requirements.

Have fun.

@Rentenier
Just curious how you would fit in the TDREI signaling in the hourly chart baring in mind Tom qualifies the signal as severe or extreme. If I consider the signal in the daily chart and combine the Brown rules I would say the daily chart is running into peer resistance. Which in fact is shown in the Derivative Oscillator.

 

[rentenier]

I am still having some troubles with my PC, but today I try to get a long position (around 532). The daily chart gives the impression that the down swing is over. Look at the histogram, it goes flat and I think if today has a positive close it may turn. Also the RSI has found support at 40 (hour chart). Of course the main trend is still up according to my indicators (all systems green at the price window). I will watch closely the 30 min chart, there may develop a new trend channel.

@dominique: thanks for the links and tips.

@clown
As I read the text, a severe/extreme situation might not lead to a trend change, while a mild situation usually does. I guess this is in accordance with the RSI which can be oversold/overbought during a longer period. The TDREI (red) and DeMarker (black) are shown at the 3rd picture, for the EOD chart. I don't see problems for an uptrend because DeMarker is severe overbought and TDREI is just turning upwards after a new low. I wonder if I can buy at 532, looking at the AEX right now.

ARGGH can not get the 3rd picture uploaded

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Vrijdag 4 mei.... hamertje tik

The nine Elliott Wave pattern options show a number of flavors ranging from impulsive to the complex corrective versions. In the overall picture a corrective pattern would fit in best and the third wave internals have definitely a corrective signature so until proven otherwise I stick to that scenario. Out of the four corrective pattern options the WXYXZc pattern is the most likely one to actually survive providing of course the part from the Monday low up is not going to change into impulse.

If I had a hammer..


EDIT:
The reason I love trading is that you can create such a beautiful charts and make some money on top of it as well.

@Albee
You are dead right and there is even an other target generated by the very same New School features even a bit higher. However the hesitation to get those targets in rapidly should make you wonder about alternatives as well. Last Monday the month April was wrapped up and that’s the trigger to have a look at the more long term picture for guidance. The long term picture reveals a threshold which explains the hesitation to resume the Bull run. As you might recall from my previous posts we are entering a timeframe where bear influence adapted from Astro Finance Cycle Analysis is coming into effect. Finally “Ben the Man” is going to perform one of his acts.

My conclusion therefore is get the money and run with scalps and ST trades. When the smoke is gone get back into the MLT positions.

Okay Albee,

Point taken so let me put the lovely chart in perspective and you might look at it differently.

Have a nice weekend and make sure you enjoy the excellent whether.

 

[albee]

well Clown, you'r producing lovely charts.
i still wonder because i have a target open for 543 calculated with the methode you all know (x-y=z)
todays target or not todays target, thats the question.
(free from Shakespeare or something i guess

*thanks Clown, it makes you a great man for reacting at most posts.
Your exellent experience is still amazing me.

 

[Blinker]

Buitje voor het stof...

I too want to give Clown a feather in his a..
Almost everyday a new update, everybody gets his or her answers and on top nice pictures (latest with fibo's, arrows, blocks and stars). Clown, thank You!!!!

I was wondering..... these arrows and blocks? Is this why you are programming? Mechanical ins and outs or are those your own dissisions?
I saw you use fibo's lately. Remember what she wrote?

Please go on with the stuff you do. I'd like it much.

Best regards,

Blinker

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Week 19.

It has been a while since I started with the Long Term overall picture so let’s run through it. For those of you who might have read my Elliott Wave threads way back on the other forum I have the pleasure to re-introduce the TripleZigZagC pattern for the AEX starting at 217,80. The last wave Z is running from 409,56 and given the ideal pattern would run until end of the year early 2008 with a price target under 637,63. Hang on, remember rule 1 in the Clown’s traders Almanac you buy low and sell high, there are two potential downers this year to build up your long position.

So wave Z is what we are looking at and within this wave we have a number of options still open, baring in mind we know more than just Elliott patterns we should be able to minimize those to something usable for our trading roadmap. Mind you for LT and MLT positions I am perfectly happy with missing on the exact bottom or top while in the meantime scoring the best part of the swing. Let’s focus on pivot 469,85 and the relevant pivots within and guess what, we find an other TripleZigZagC pattern however there is detailed Elliott knowledge needed to dig into the merits. Without going into too much detail the third wave has a target of 540-542 and with up to date data was placed at 539,08 with fourth wave at 528,36. So for our trading roadmap we need to consider two options a) the to date preferred count implies the last wave up b) wave three will be placed slightly higher and waves four and five are still due.

The month April is history so we better have a closer look at the charts with immediate observation that the chart is OverBought and the knowledge that this is not the signal to full blown short the AEX. In 1996\1997 the AEX managed to constantly hold the OverBought area for 14 months and gaining 173,06 index points so if you still feel the markets should in fact crash you better get your facts straightened. The GJN taught trending methodology tells you the chart is positively trending and the dynamic version shows the same modus so we need the help of the fractal ranges to be able to navigate. The appropriate fractal for the month May is trending negatively with: 506,29 <AEX< 544,71.

The Astro Finance identifies bull and bear influences in time of which I have isolated the more substantial factors see previous attachments. This month one of the three 2007 major bear influencers will be active although the effect might be less substantial due to bull influence at roughly the same period. If we combine the used techniques including the active New School signaling – good to see Albee that there are more people becoming aware of the active signals - in multiple charts with the trending modus we are looking specifically at the support levels this week. You can find those in the previous post second attachment.

Have fun trading.


@Blinker
The Fibonacci levels are primarily used in the Elliott Wave Analysis and have been persistently used in the background counting waves and used to qualify the different scenario’s found. Since I have been using ranges as suggested by Brown I faced a similar challenge in trading as I had already experienced using Fibonacci levels. It is not often crystal clear when\if a range or Fibonacci level functions as reversal, resistance, support or has no significant meaning at all. The Brown book suggests to move into a specific direction, however I have not yet implemented those idea’s into some coding since there are a number of implications that would mean a monster of coding. Basically I have postponed the inevitable.

Over the last couple of months I have been implementing some of the less familiar suggestions out of the Brown book or better put, the results of the encouragement to go on an exploration trip in the indicator field. If there is one huge dilemma to deal with here it is: on the one side there is in fact no Holy Grail or just one indicator that works in all circumstances on the other side one is advised to work with a limited number of indicators ideally just one. So I found myself switching between screens with different indicators and techniques so heavily that I had an idea to combine a number of affiliated stuff and integrated it. The challenge is to filter the signals in such a way that the most relevant ones pop up and the false ones disappear real time on-line.

 

[cold or warm]

Weekly

And DDC,

Nice to see that the target from the Pos. Rev. in the weekly from 24-09-04 / 16-06-06 has been triggert in the week ending at 04-05-07 on 540,77.

And now we wait ......Heineken !!

Regards

KvKd

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Dinsdag 8 mei.

CoW,

Be well prepared by the differences in the routing to Rome since the financial markets usually don’t connect two dots by a straight line. The traders Almanac instructs you to buy low and sell high which directly links to a) your entry points b) your exits points c) your money management with reduce and accumulation points. The c) category is also known as “hekjes” as referred to by a couple of Option Market Veterans who explained a number of strategies in detail at the “Waddeneilanden”. My implementation is a bit different as my ballgame is a bit different in essence it comes down to the same thing though.

Each and every next data entry has three options a) up b) down C) equal basically offering you 33.33% probability and the next one has diminished to again a third and so on and so on. If you sit down and think about it for a minute you seem to be trading against all odds and it’s more gambling rather than trading so in order to make some money to have to make the odds work for you. This is exactly what you are doing when performing a market trading analysis and once again price is just one of the used entry variables time is an other one you will have to incorporate.

Have fun trading to WIN.

@Rentenier
Now it’s my turn to urge you to be careful. In essence I understand your position however this is the part where the Brown Range Rules do offer their added value. The REI is signaling the extreme\severe qualification and if you read it like you pointed out in one of the above posts, you get the picture. If I look at my new friends the move up has been announced by the blue square and needs to be confirmed by switching the hollow blue square which happens when my signaling line moves up (from down). When this scenario will evolve the next decision area is the green line.


EDIT:
Better look at this potential entry long - crossing white line and dotted green one – if not before 17u the last half hour trading might be tricky so if not confirmed quickly take the money and run with it and there’s always the next one tomorrow. By the way are you looking at page 58?!

 

[rentenier]

Looking at the chart of the AEX, it looks we have made a bottom. Support at the pitchforks and divergence at a low value for the RSI. Opened a long position around 2: Go AEX, GO!

Thnx for the advice. I was a bit to quick, but I kept my positon (I am more a swinger than a trader). Besides there was still some support closely below and my stop loss at EOD was 535,6. It turns out to be the right decision this evening, because the ami's are up. I think today is only a small correction in the way up. Looking at fibo levels, 575 might be the end before a big correction is due.

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Woensdag 9 mei

May 9, 2007

There are a number of reasons to base entering a long position on as shown yesterday. However the most important argument not to enter is the Risk/Reward one directly linked to the two colored lines (Yellow and Green) in the charts presented. If those lines brake we are looking at a serious lower AEX price value so they should function as entry and full stop, no discussion about it. The other issue involves our favorite indicator that is performing a page 58 status but just needs a push down to execute the close to perfection Signal.

The most appealing thing to me picking potential entry points is that it is always almost immediately clear if the identified support or resistance is in fact performing as such so when the confirmation is not in within reasonable timeframe I can exit as a P trade rather than the other one.

Well today “Ben the Man” is demanding his role once more so I sincerely hope that this circus does not paralyze our market after opening waiting for more nothing.

Have fun.

EDIT1:
The festivity of the Technical Analysis recognition was complete this morning as the new school signal was triggered the index moved up but never managed to change the fractal intraday trending modus. So the bottom-line is that a bit more downside potential has been created. The Long entry we are looking for ideally would be 530,46 <AEX< 535,47 (10-11u) and notice the Derivative Oscillator for signaling and timing.

EDIT2:
This morning right after my trade was processed EURONEXT gave up on me for just about an hour. No harm done could close with the cigar P. This afternoon the entry was again spot on the trade however did not survive since the Green line formally know as support now was acting as resistance a definite reduce signal. As “ Ben the man” is going to do an other trick I wrapped up the remainder of the trade due to the fact that the fractal range trend modus has not yet been changed up. Next round tomorrow.

Cheers.

 

[albee]

wauw, S&P a target at +/-1520?
then, i suppose can aex to 543-545 not be too far..

 

[albee]

right or wrong...

wauw, S&P a target at +/-1520?
then, i suppose can aex to 543-545 not be too far..

or 1533....

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Donderdag 10 mei

The most important reason to be extremely careful playing the Long side is the intraday short term range fractal trend modus. And since it has been negative for quite a while it is starting to have some effect on the other chart layers as well. It might probably be forgotten by now but I informed you in one of the above posts that I closed my MLT positions and included the primary arguments to do so.

“Ben the Man” did his circus act and we say in the Netherlands ‘ en ze deden een plas” back to trading where the Yellow and Green lines in the chart attachment are going to play a role again. Which role it will be is set by the intraday short term range fractal trend modes and the word dynamic also has to be included so we obtain: “ The intraday short term dynamic range fractal trend modus” .

If you took the New School signaling yesterday you are still in an active signal it just needs the comfortable trend fractal modus to join the party. However when the trend does not want to be your friend you will have to consider mister Nol1 his trading rule book rule number 1.

Have fun trading to WIN.

@Albee
The S&P500 is not the Yank’s Land index I use for cross check when appropriate. The way my set of tools is performing lately I have less need for a cross check anyway.

EDIT1:
Well what can I say. Bull’s-eye, it was there, it did what it was suppose to do, it fits perfectly. Next one, we are going to look for what has been called a jvdlow-entry that would be the ideal scenario. Think about it and enjoy the festivity of TA recognition, well the money is not so bad, thank you very much.

EDIT2:
The jvdlow-entry signal is in now it’s time to do some decent trading again.

EDIT3:
Well some decent trading it definitely was this afternoon. The red line in the chart did it’s trick the trending fractals looked after the P. Next round tomorrow.

 

[Pacito]

3 weeks early?

Old attachment but still in play. Remember I had to change the uptrend in time, 3 weeks earlier than in my original posting in January. That's probably also the reason that my predicted bottom of 460 wasn't reached. I'm wondering right now If I have to bring the downtrend, starting in June, forward. Also 3 weeks? That would mean that we are at the top right now, or better, we had the top already. For the time being I leave it at the original date because all indicators I used, including Gann, Elliot and Fibonacci, pointed at June. Keep in mind that I used them long term, so there can be a slight difference with short term interpretation. I leave the short term to clown, as ever.
Have a nice day,
Pacito

II Look at it, keep it in mind, just another toy to keep you sharp.
Let me know if you think its worth a second look.

Question: Clown, could it be possible that the trendchange in June will be a change from a downtrend into an uptrend? I didn't look at that possibility earlier because I assumed the uptrend would be starting later and ending later. But if the downtrend has started already.....

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Vrijdag 11 mei

One of the better aids in trading that works for me is to always keep at least two conflicting scenario’s side by side, this will also help to pinpoint the crossings. If you have any expectation how the stock market is going to move, it should be to expect the unexpected. The main arguments when one of the conflicting scenario’s became obsolete I did provide upfront in the above posts. The page 58 situation has not been changed if you check your charts you can find the implied results based on the Technical Analysis New School signaling, however there are a number of conflicting arguments within the different charts.

The intraday chart has some indications that a bit of relief at the long side is due so depending on how things actually look like on the board once we have opened next round can be played. The next moves will make clear what we are dealing with, a correction like a ripple in the up move or if we need to prepare for a more serious correction. The hourly chart has an RSI value of 21,83 so that’s not one I would particularly fancy to play the short side on. My best scenario is that the opening is one that pushes the AEX through the floor but if that will happen is an other thing. Time will tell.

Have fun trading to WIN.


@Pacito
Thanks for you contribution as always nice charts, your June dates are also found in the Elliott Wave inter-wave relationships and remember the Clowndicator which identifies potential uppers, showing one in June as well. I have been working on some other Astro stuff, some of it you can find in the above post a bit further back in time. For now – until proven otherwise – I am looking at a scenario that implies a “low” and turn up Friday or it might slip to next week, than moving up towards the June area. Analyzing the long term timeframes is something completely different and you will have to realize that if you use the same level of quality you have achieved in other timeframes the same tolerance implies larger values in the absolute sense.


The signs in the recent charts might look a bit odd since I am still working on the filtering and combinations that are in sync with the AEX rhythm. Since a number of the used indicators are derivatives I am having some programming challenges at the re-engineering and projecting side.
As to your enveloping question I have been playing with a number of different envelope implementations, primarily tight ones that follow the rhythm of the AEX like a glove more something to be used in a combination of indications. The size of the bandwidth variation is something like an early warning system which is actually extraordinary accurate, directly linked to the volatility. The direction is the catchy issue here since false moves are supposed to be part of the deal without a money back guarantee. The white star in the chart is a derivative envelope that is getting below a set bandwidth, the two main issues I am working on is a) how small can de the bandwidth become and how long can it last b) the direction question. The direction question I am playing with some thoughts and are found in the charts as red and green circles, trust you get the picture. It’s work in progress.


EDIT1:
Chips I hate it when the status quo situation has been created. Attached the red line zoomed in, well folks it’s resistance now…. So look at the white line in the first attachment. I have set my alarm clock to wake me up…..

EDIT2:
Chips the alarm clock and I wasn’t even asleep yet trading time again….

@Starter
If you are too focused on the NR signaling you easily pay no attention to the PR signaling.

EDIT3:
Hello again are you going to be my friend again red line? LOL Please note that the fish floating on top has been removed and we are now waiting for the jumping Jack ones.

@Starter
The Jumping Jack fish might need a bit of extra help to do the job more convincing so I hate to be the fundamentalist but well some people exhibit emotional behavior and are inclined to initially push the action button where as the reaction is something else. You know the drill.

EDIT4:
The circus proudly presents the birth of a newly set of lines this morning, a healthy bunch of Green ones positioning the AEX in a positive trending modus. Mamloe and I are overjoyed since the delivery was well within the pre-targeted area even tough not explicitly published at least one of you received the reference value, in cold hard digits including two at the right side of the comma, last night. We don’t throw away our old shoes they continue to act although the function is the opposite. Hope you can appreciate I zoomed out a bit not to provide you a headache but to provide you some more feeling for the boundaries.

EDIT5:
It has been a nice ride and given the price/time I am noticing indications that it might have run a bit too fast so I am going to look for a point to reduce my positions and find an accumulate point to act accordingly. In the back of my mind I keep open the possibility we might even see a lower low in this run so I am going to have an other look at the alternatives.

EDIT6:
The euphoric mood is blocking the mind and the greed is too widely spread. There are not that many trading day’s I am receiving more than 10 index points for my chips-load of FTI’s so I’ll take the money thank you very much. People seem to be forgetting that page 58 works both way’s even though the dynamic short term intraday trend fractal modus change into + finally… zucht….. I have learned to trust my tools and they indicate overshoot. I might be wrong but the money at the bank tells me…

There will probably be no weekly week 20 due to mothers-day this Sunday.
Have a nice weekend
Cheers