cj12's Dow Trades

Okay, now I understand. I wasnt sure if you were a position/day trader or intraday.

I pay under $5 per round trip, and in Jan 04 it falls further to $2.08 a side.
 
Has anyone done back testing on the trading method i give close/open segment trading

CJ
 
hi rossored, when you say you only pay $5 i am presuming that is for the ym. On the IB site it is $2.06 *2 for a roundrip from january - am i looking at the wrong thing?

cheers
 
No mate, thats the right thing.

Currently on YM-ECBOT the commission is $2.40 per contract, the same as GLOBEX. In Jan04, the commission falls to $2.06 per contract, making it $4.12 per trade (I thought it was around 2.08 but I havent looked lately). With one tick being $5, you can be in a tiny profit at entry+1 tick.

Dont know if the GLOBEX rates will drop as well - IB havent said anything on Elite Trader about it yet. If the exchange drop the rates then IB will no doubt pass the savings on.
 
hi rossored, thanks for confirming. I am not sure what you mean by one tick being $5 - not familiar with that.

thanks
 
Oh, ok : a tick is another word for a point. So 1 point/tick =$5 profit/loss...

IE if you buy one contract at 10000 for example, at 10001 you could close the position if you had changed your mind/whatever, and you would make (at present) the grand total of $0.20 ( 1 x $5 profit, less $4.80 commission for the trade )
 
From CJ

Would anyone like to back test this

Its an inside day but what you look for is

1) The 2 previous days before the inside day needs to be making higher lows

opening price after the inside day needs to be below the mid range of the yesterdays inside day

3) Sell on the open. or (2) you can wait for a large range bar on a 5 min chart As follows the first 5 min bar has a larger range than normal (norm is roughly defined as the average of the preceding 10 days' of the first 5 min ranges

4) Once in the trade you exit at the close no stopes was used in the test

It's 80% winning trades. On daily bars.
The revers of the above method yields 90% trades on daily bars

But I would like to test it on 30 min bars I like the idea of 30 min bars because it takes 90 mins to draw 3 bars and in the W.D.Gann world 90 min time frame you would look for a change in direction. but on intraday charts once you filled look to get out once 60min have past.

The method above is based on Tony cradle

I got a lot more trading methods but I will post 1 at a time.

PS why i have i only got 2 stars this got to be worth 5 stars lol

CJ
 
As this is a big wide world and I have not seen these people before could anyone give me an idea as to how good they are. I currently use Options Direct for UK/USA Options/Shares/CFDs and IGIndex for Spreadbetting. Looking at the site it appears they don't charge commssion on options, which I don't believe. I must be missing something. Also access seemed slow. Any comments graetfully received.
 
cj

Results of back testing the above "Inside System" on Dow EOD data from 1988:
Setup:
Day-3 must close higher than open
Day-2 must close higher than open
Day-1 must be inside day
Today must open < low+((PrevDayHigh - PrevDayLow)/2)

Sell on open without stops: 261pts
Sell on open with -50pts stop: 741pts

Reverse setup for Buys:
Buy on open without stops: 411pts
Buy on open with -50pts stop: 1013pts

Not very impressive for 15 years..:)

Sounds like hard work to make a few bob... normally months between trades..

Cheers Snip
 
o snip

thanks for that but I think you put in the wrong data you said bellow

Results of back testing the above "Inside System" on Dow EOD data from 1988:
Set-up:
Day-3 must close higher than open
Day-2 must close higher than open
Day-1 must be inside day
Today must open < low+((PrevDayHigh - PrevDayLow)/2)

What i mean is this sorry

Pattern 1
The day of entry is called day 1. The day immediately preceding the entry is day 2' and each preceding day - 3,4,5, etc.On day 1 an open lower than days 2's mid range and lower than Day 2's close is necessary.

Day 2 must be inside of day 3. Day 3 must have a higher low than day 4. A sale is made on the open of day 1 with exit on the close of day. results tested 1980 to 88 was 80%
.................................................................................................................................
Pattern 2
Is similar to pattern 1 with the opposite parameters. The only exception is the open on day 1 need only to be higher, than the inside day cls not above mid-range.(So to review pattern 2) Day 1 a higher open than day 2. Day 2 inside Day 3. Day 3 lower high than day 4. results tested 1980 to 88 was 90%

CJ
 
Last edited:
cj

OK, lets try again...

Setup pattern 1 (Sells)
Day4
Day3 Higher low than day4 low
Day2 Inside day3
Day1 day1Open < low+((day2High - day2Low)/2) AND day1Open < day2Close

Setup pattern 2 (Buys)
Day4
Day3 Lower high than day4 high
Day2 Inside day3
Day1 day1Open > day2Close

................Sell, Buy, Sell50sl, Buy50sl
Total Pts: 508 1655 1029 2118
Largest gain: 243 294 243 294
Largest loss: -359 -147 -50 -50
Winners: 32 38 32 38
Losers: 28 28 28 28
Strike Rate: 53% 58% 53% 58%

For 1980 - 1988 data you got a SR of 80% for Sells and 90% for buys. I cannot get above a 60% SR for 1988 - 2003 data..!!

Still a lack of trades for 15 years..:)

Best I can do, hope it helps... You can have my spread sheet if you want...

Cheers Snip
 
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