Candles and Confluence

Interesting stuff.

Whilst I understand the rationale of hammers & price rejection, I do not understand why a regular Doji would be considered a good reversal signal. A gravestone or dragonfly doji also shows price rejection but a regular Doji where the open & close are in the middle of a large upper & lower shadow says that no decisive move took place. Surely, a Doji by it's nature represents a trading range/indecision. The market moved & ended up where it was.

To me, it seems illogical to say that a bar that went nowhere represents a change in direction.
 
I do not understand why a regular Doji would be considered a good reversal signal.

You are right, a doji does not indicate a change of direction, only indecision. This is why you would look for confirmation in the next candle.
 
You are right, a doji does not indicate a change of direction, only indecision. This is why you would look for confirmation in the next candle.

I would look for a lot more than a doji and a confirming candle to consider a reversal.
 
The confluence appealed to me, and I thought the first doji had just a touch of bullishness about it. I think I was reaching a bit with that one though.
 
dojis suck! look for more significant reversal bars and patterns.
To trade like this ithink you need to either get a course or have a lot of screentime, otherwise people will just focus on single reversal bars.... mostly pins.

the most important thing is not risk reward ratio lol (imo) but having confluence, its all fine and well having a 3:1 rr trade but its far better to have a 1:1 trade with a higher probability
 
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Hiya fantastic,

Well, I used about half of that money to buy Oztrader's course. I have since been demoing with the forex markets using metatrader. I have added 10% to my account in about two weeks. I feel quite comfortable with the price action stuff I've been learning, and I feel that I may be ready to trade live quite soon. To be honest, demo trading encourages me to trade a bit looser than I should, and I'm not sure I want to get used to that.

I will have a bit more starting capital to begin with now, thanks to the wife.
 
hey hey! so you took my recommendation ! :) how is that course i've been wondering
 
I think it's very helpful for new traders like me. I am learning to trade a few well-defined set-ups, and to do so in a way that keeps risk to a minimum. I think Nial is a decent straight-up guy who is earning a good living trading and enjoys teaching others to do what he does. There is a member forum where we all pitch in, trying to identify good trades as they happen, which is pretty cool.
 
eyh ive spoke to him on email a couple o' times...his 'fakey' set up is pretty cool aswell. lol tell him i recommended you :)
 
The great thing about candle patterns is that they occur so frequently. I wrote some code to markup what are claimed to be the most useful common patterns. Presented without further comment:
 

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The great thing about candle patterns is that they occur so frequently. I wrote some code to markup what are claimed to be the most useful common patterns. Presented without further comment:

Now you just need to code in the confluence part ;)
 
after reading his last thread it's crazy how far he's came :)

he's probably busy learning the price action methodology , i hope so anyway !
 
Another learning experience

after reading his last thread it's crazy how far he's came :)

he's probably busy learning the price action methodology , i hope so anyway !


Hey TAjammy,

I tend to not do things by half measures. I find I get very focused on one thing, and it will be forex and price action until I succeed. I have been learning the price action methodology, and find it to be very simple and effective. My problem has been one of discipline. I was so excited to be finally going live, that I wanted to be in every move and started trading shorter timeframes than I intended to. I started to lose, and my reaction was to increase my exposure. Eventually, I busted out again.

I read the advice, I knew the rules, but I failed to follow them. I think one can be shown what to do and what not to do, but in my case at least, it seems I am intent on making the mistakes myself before I learn from them.

I have to rewrite my rules and find some discipline. I thought I could beat the market on the short timeframes, but I do really realise now that I can't.

I am saving up for another go at it, and am now only going to trade the daily timeframes. I will trade only the best price action signals, which means I may only place two or three trades per week. It's the only way I'm going to make it work. I have to start building an account up instead of blowing out.

I began to find more discipline and patience towards the end of my last stint, so I am confident that I will improve. I fully appreciate now that I really do have to take the most cautious approach that I can. Besides, not only is overtrading unprofitable, it is also very stressful.
 
dude i know what you mean, 'cept i've been on demo refining myself and my rules and dailies are certainly best for this type of trading imo. although keep an eye out for economic announcements, im down 150 pips on a cable trade , had my sell stop been 2 pips lower i would not have been filled and wouldn't be down, regardless it still looks good on the short side but im looking out for todays and tomorrow's econ announcements so that i have a weak pound on my side...
 
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