Can you be too clever?

[BSD]

Grant, I think what needs a very thorough examination are the respective qualities of respective beers in respective clubs next time I'm in London. Feel free to come along and assist in that strenuous and extremely thirsty making endeavour.

 

[zosorock]

Grant, I think what needs a very thorough examination are the respective qualities of respective beers in respective clubs next time I'm in London. Feel free to come along and assist in that strenuous and extremely thirsty making endeavour.

May I help too?? Please? :cheesy:

 

[FXSCALPER2]

You make some fair points, but it's pretty clear that you missed the point of my post I reckon. I didn't state an opinion one way or another on who knows what, merely that the prop traders at big shops TEND to trade a certain way, and that I don't think having a military background would give one any sort of an advantage in that type of trading. I did concede however that for model type trading where discpline is a more definite factor, it could be useful.

You seem to be implying that I was trying to have some sort of p**ssing contest about who's smarter, but that was not the point of my post at all.

GJ

OK

 

[BSD]

May I help too?? Please? :cheesy:

Oui Oui, hard work ahead of us

 

[ZDO]

That's true, but you can think that you are too clever.

So true - I would know

In Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, he relates how dopamine regulates mood and supplies an internal reward system for the brain.. and that higher concentrations of dopamine correlates with lowered skepticism and builds to trading euphoria ... 'imperviousnessness'

And, freaking phd's aside, banking on the normal distribution in trading was not and is not and will not ever be 'clever'...

And still...
no, you can't be too clever

 

[BSD]

In Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, he relates how dopamine regulates mood and supplies an internal reward system for the brain.. and that higher concentrations of dopamine correlates with lowered skepticism and builds to trading euphoria ... 'imperviousnessness'

Makes sense.

Prozac or hormone therapies need to learn from Big Tobacco and start carrying a stark warning that makes very clear that indulging in either will cause grave damage to health of bank account ;-)

The federal Equal Employment Opportunity Commission is ramping up its inquiry into sexual harassment accusations made by a former junior trader at SAC Capital, who says his boss, star trader Ping Jiang, forced him to take female hormones and then sexually assaulted him, CNBC has learned.

In the lawsuit,Tong alleges that he was forced to take female hormones by Jiang who said they would make him less aggressive and a better trader. Tong said in the lawsuit that he was sexually assaulted by Jiang and that he was forced to wear women's clothing and couldn't have sex with his wife, who was trying to get pregnant.

 

[Splitlink]

So true - I would know

That makes two of us .

 

[alexander]

I have not seen adequate evidence that suggests being clever gives a better ability to predict future outcomes. I have seen many (including on these boards), who believed that they were more clever than the rest and were able to predict the future but again this was never proven in scientifically controlled conditions.


Paul

Again right to the point! I would add that predicting the future is one thing and doing the right thing after that is another. So many times I have made the right prediction but did not take the right actions to go with it.

LTCM people were ignorant of the 10% factor. In life, in every physical system, there is a background 10% noise. If you are fully invested and leveraged, this noise can kill you when against you. By the way, I suppose everyone understands that noise states cannot be predicted.

Alex

 

[black bear]

Predictions and trading = NOT CLEVER

Again right to the point! I would add that predicting the future is one thing and doing the right thing after that is another. So many times I have made the right prediction but did not take the right actions to go with it.

LTCM people were ignorant of the 10% factor. In life, in every physical system, there is a background 10% noise. If you are fully invested and leveraged, this noise can kill you when against you. By the way, I suppose everyone understands that noise states cannot be predicted.

Alex

Hi Alex,

Bit alarmed and seen that word popping up a lot on this thread

Alex I am not suggesting you in any way use predictive powers or adopt in correct trading methods, Im just saying

prediction

"So many times I have made the right prediction but did not take the right actions to go with it."

I suspect we all have, my weekend point :cheesy: then I am going out to avoid the flack

Nothing or no one can predict the future, If you use your predictive skills to place a trade thats not to Clever IMO,

If you do decide to

FINE, but your method must identify to you wrong alignment pretty dam quick IMO or your dead meat along with your predictive powers.



And as Ian posted earlier ~

Quote:
Originally Posted by bbmac

1. Can you be too clever for your own good?

I think so... 'If you are too sharp you might cut yourself'




Prediction - trading method - un connected -NOT CLEVER imo

I have in fact to date found the opposite true of my own trading, I predict or have an opinion regards whatever, my method indicates the opposite course of action / alignment I go with my method every time. The method is clever

It gets the trader in, keeps him or her in and just is without thinking.

I am Daft what do I now, what information am I privy to:?: NONE :!: , may as well read my tea leafs or get out a crystal ball or better still toss a coin.

GammaJammer post

Quote

"I'm talking about the big shop, macro type trading, where no-one would seriously consider trading purely on, say technical analysis, without any consideration for fundamentals, context etc."

I was going to agree sort of, not having a very good grasp of fundamentals, but have decided

NO, method Rules once a traders in or on because ~

"Your method must identify to you wrong alignment pretty dam quick IMO or your dead meat along with your predictive powers."

and I would add Fundamentals, looking at a back issue of errr magazine ~

Obviously Pro reasearch would be better, a lot better than mine but Northern Rock business model, growth share etc bla bla bla bla bla bla bla :arrowu:

BUY @ £11:50

I will stick to method every day of the week, I am daft I now nothing. NOTHING AT ALL

Have a good weekend all

Ians right IMO

Quote:
Originally Posted by bbmac

1. Can you be too clever for your own good?

I think so... 'If you are too sharp you might cut yourself'

Andy AKA

 

[Splitlink]

"It may be your personal view that two and two make four, but you must not state it in a self-asured way, because this is a democratic country and others may be of a different opinion."

George Mikes

 

[black bear]

Democratic country and citizen Smith

"It may be your personal view that two and two make four, but you must not state it in a self-asured way, because this is a democratic country and others may be of a different opinion."

George Mikes

Split

Wondered when you"d surface hope you having a good wk end Split

"democratic country" I am not so sure thats a clever assumption to make :?: it just appears that way, it costs a lot of money so to appear that way, and whats really funny is they make the citizens pay to keep up that appearance.

thread off track moderator heeeeeeellllllllllllllllp

two and two makes four :?: what you substituting the and with :?:

oh ye and who is George Mikes :?:

Andy AKA

 

[Splitlink]

Split

Wondered when you"d surface hope you having a good wk end Split

"democratic country" I am not so sure thats a clever assumption to make :?: it just appears that way, it costs a lot of money so to appear that way, and whats really funny is they make the citizens pay to keep up that appearance.

thread off track moderator heeeeeeellllllllllllllllp

two and two makes four :?: what you substituting the and with :?:

oh ye and who is George Mikes :?:

Andy AKA

George Mikes wrote a book called "How to be an Alien". He was Hungarian and I remember that he mentioned that the English were the only people who did not think that a foreigner was natural until he had been naturalised.

Regards Split

 

[black bear]

Winner SPLIT and IAN

George Mikes wrote a book called "How to be an Alien". He was Hungarian and I remember that he mentioned that the English were the only people who did not think that a foreigner was natural until he had been naturalised.

Regards Split

Split



You Win

well done again, your the boy & well read




I am Ok, counts me out I have Welsh Blood

Andy AKA

 

[Splitlink]

I'm half and half, myself. What's your blood ratio ? Now I have grandchildren that have that, from me, but well diluted with Catalan blood, as well. Which goes to show that all this race business, is BS, anyway.

Split

 

[black bear]

Half and Half, Me to

I'm half and half, myself. What's your blood ratio ? Now I have grandchildren that have that, from me, but well diluted with Catalan blood, as well. Which goes to show that all this race business, is BS, anyway.

Split

Split,

Blood ratio ?

I was told once in my youth when very irresponsible that it was about the same half and half mate.

50% normal human blood and 75% pure Scots whiskey :?:

even I new that was complete BS and does"nt add up

Have a good one thats me, enough of this BS for one day