Calling all "Senior Members T2W" Experienced traders! Help Newbies?

Socrates

An expanded reply to which I accept. On a lighter note you made reference to certainties and near certainties. I have always considered with trading there are no certainties because the market is a fickle thing and view trading as developing a ( to quote you ) a 'structured' plan where the balance of probabilities from your trade are in your favour, but always fall at entry point as a near certainty rather than a certainty.

Regards

Kevin
 
Socrates

SOCRATES said:
I am proceeding on the basis that your intentions are honourable.
However will you please clarify whether you expect me to except your assurances or accept them? See above, your post.
Please excuse my grammar,accept.
 
As one of the "Oldies" on this board and have dealt in shares since the 60's, I AM STILL LEARNING, and will continue to do so until i eventually quit trading/investing.

There are no shortcuts in this business, just hard graft and persistence!!

Paper trade your ideas and always apply a STOP LOSS, STOP LOSS, STOP LOSS, immediately after opening a trade.

There are no free rides!!!!

John
 
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kevin546 said:
Socrates

An expanded reply to which I accept. On a lighter note you made reference to certainties and near certainties. I have always considered with trading there are no certainties because the market is a fickle thing and view trading as developing a ( to quote you ) a 'structured' plan where the balance of probabilities from your trade are in your favour, but always fall at entry point as a near certainty rather than a certainty.

Regards

Kevin
Some of this is not correct, in the context within which you express it because by saying the market is a fickle thing might imply that it is random, which it is not. Markets are not random, they appear to be random to the untrained eye and to those who lack information. Markets are not driven by randomness, they are driven by forces that appear to make them look random. The appearance of randomness is so convincing that all sorts of theories have been constructed around this concept, including Random Walk, Chaos, Black - Scholes, and so on, in an attempt to "pin down" this randomness, which is the result of shift of different forces from different directions with different reasons.

Failure at entry point is a different matter altogether and is due to the wrong timing for the right reason or the right timing for the wrong reason, or, the reason may be correct, absolutely correct, but then circumstances change suddenly. This does not mean you are wrong, it means that the reason you used is suddenly no longer valid. Therefore it is imperative that you always are prepared and you use Stops, in anticipation of the unexpected. It is the unexpected that catches you unawares, and not the event unfolding as you expect. This is the reason why you must always use stops, and not move them about to try to fit the outcome to meet your expectations.
 
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Note:~ In the post above notice that to try " to fit the outcome to meet your expectations " is a classic example of Forcing, which is the deliberate obstinate action of trying to impose your will, which is impossible, as it cannot be imposed, this is why forcing cannot and will not work.
 
Socrates

Your 2nd paragraph illustrates what I was trying to say

"Failure at entry point is a different matter altogether and is due to the wrong timing for the right reason or the right timing for the wrong reason, or, the reason may be correct, absolutely correct, but then circumstances change suddenly. This does not mean you are wrong, it means that the reason you used is suddenly no longer valid. Therefore it is imperative that you always are prepared and you use Stops, in anticipation of the unexpected. It is the unexpected that catches you unawares, and not the event unfolding as you expect. This is the reason why you must always use stops, and not move them about to try to fit the outcome to meet your expectations."

I used the wrong term to express placing an entry on a specific set up with a good balance of probabilities only for the market conditions to change and this particular deal to fail to produce profit. It was this circumstance that lead me to suggest there are no certainties because even with a good tested trading signal circumstances will and can change. The balance however leading to near certainties because you have a tested set up that works more than it fails.

Stops are of course an essential and very important ingredient and without it the meal is spoilt beyond salvage.

The outcome can only be assessed constructively looking upon the end product according to how well or not you traded your specific trading plan on any given trade as the market unfolded and certainly not with an attitude of trying to pigeon whole circumstances that took place. You either traded correctly or not or were unlucky to be dealt a sudden change but then if you applied your stop and or a re-entry system should the circumstances require it then you have reacted to market changes within your own rules. As with any trading on going evaluation is required to make a the complete trading plan. You are after all only as good as your last trade, generally speaking.
 
Kevin 546,

Yes, that is right. Additionally, you would never put on a position if you knew it was the wrong one, would you ? Therefore you have to follow the premise that the position you put on you did because you assumed at the time that this was the correct thing to do, is that not correct ?

Now, it may or may not have been, BUT, (a very small word in the English Language that means a lot), BUT, always in advance of the unexpected ( for example also that you realise it was a blunder) you must ensure YOUR INTEREST is PROTECTED as far as is practically possible. Hence use a STOP., always.

In general terms, there is a sort of collective aversion by traders to use stops. This is all very well for the very advanced who are fully in control of themselves in a trading environment, but for everyone else their use is imperative.

You may also like to think of a stop in this way :~

Consider you entering the market as an act of faith, an enactment of trust in your intent. You do not intend to be thwarted or hijacked, you want to have insurance against this happening and seriously damaging your project. A stop is a form of insurance against serious damage occurring to your project. Avail yourself of this protection, because it is unwise not to.

Kind Regards.
 
Uncle said:
As one of the "Oldies" on this board and have dealt in shares since the 60's, I AM STILL LEARNING, and will continue to do so until i eventually quit trading/investing.

There are no shortcuts in this business, just hard graft and persistence!!

Paper trade your ideas and always apply a STOP LOSS, STOP LOSS, STOP LOSS, immediately after opening a trade.

There are no free rides!!!!

John
Well said uncle, thanks for your support on this point, it cannot be repeated often enough can it ?

Kind Regards.
 
And, in addition to what uncle says there is another way of looking at it which is this:~

Consider, for example when you buy a house say on a mortgage. The Lender will expect to be covered in the event that the house is damaged in some way, through fire, explosion, subsidence, etc., or any other unforseen circumstance beyond the remit of the borrower , before the house is fully paid for. This is an expense defrayed in the form of a premium on a regular basis, throughout the life of the mortgage.

Now consider the operation of a Stop Loss as a form of premium on an insurance that the losses if the trade goes the wrong way are not going to be devastating, this now puts a different slant on it does it not ?

Well, it is common sense, isn't it ? It ought to be done as a matter of sound business practice, always.
 
Well Dave JB, let us continue from where we left off on the subject of teaching. The student who first encounters the topic of trading is dazzled by the complexity and variety of information relating to this subject.

This complexity and variety has a main effect. This effect is that the newbie becomes stimulated jointly intellectually and emotionally, for starters. And Bramble, pay attention !

But very soon, the emotional stimulus begins to overrride the intelllectual until inadvertently, the intellectual curiosity that originated the quest for information is subjugated by the emotional overlay that attaches itself to it. The emotional overlay succeeds in swamping rational sifting.

This is inevitable, given the power of percieved wealth to stimulate emotional responses. Do not lose sight of the fact that emotion disables the ability to logically deduce and reason. But in the main, most aspirants will, at least in the earliest stages of their enquiries become first very excited and then following disappointments when they follow false trails become either despondent or angry.

These are natural responses to be expected. They occur because all of this is at first seen through a humanistic viewpoint, which is very subceptible to emotional stimuli, as the aspirant has not had the chance to develop the ability to be impartial, through lack of information, and frustatingly, through what is perceived to be the acquisition of what proves to be incorrect information, persistently.

There are several reasons for this. As this topic is not offered as a degree course in any university, therefore there aren't any academics that truly have a realistic handle on it. There are a lot of opinions but not any hard evidence of what route is to be followed in terms of a curriculum, what reading matter is suitable (versus required reading where a publicly accessible curriculum is known and can be accessed)
what vocational requirements are needed, or what personal attributes are required, and so on, on the one hand, and on the other hand there is a lot of nonsense printed, published, commented, advertised, promoted, discussed, disseminated, implied, suggested, promised, guaranteed, pushed, and I can go on and on, but the reason is that none of it is designed to benefit the raw aspirant, that is, everything is done to deflect the raw aspirant in a subtle way to what it is that will gain the unscrupulous the advantage in ripping off the uninformed. Please bear with me because this is very complicated as a total concept.

The raw aspirant is unprepared for this cornucopia of muddle. The raw aspirant does not have a yardstick with which to measure or validate all of this.It becomes a tragic comedy of errors, in which everyone is entiltled to an opinion, but very few have the correct view.

This correct view is easily lost in this huge sea of controversy and dissent, discussion and argument, opinion and gossip, chit chat and hearsay, because of a total absence of academic underpinning.

I say this because it is not in the collective and individual interest of society that poeple should have the option of falling out of step with what it is that society needs, that is people to serve society and not people who are viewed whether correctly or not as non contributors to the economic effort by opting out selfishly to earn their living by what may be perceived,(wrong perception ~ speculators are essential to capitalism, on the basis that they voluntarily undertake risk and underwrite liquidity, but that is another matter) as purely parasitical individuals engaged in a totally useless activity, selfishly accumulating wealth and leading the life of Riley while everybody else is obligated to graft.

So already here we have two huge stumbling blocks that are the first line of obstacles preventing people from obtaining the correct information. Lack of empowerment occurs because of lack of information, and not stupidity. We are talking here of imposed ignorance from which there appears to be no relief, and no clear route to true learning and hence the flattening of ignorance and the attainment of empowerment through the correct knowledge.

But , as the framework within which information can be provided is a democratic one, as a consequence of this, everyone is entiltled to an opinion.

This is a disaster, because it defeats the very object that raw aspirants seek. What is very cruel is the irony that besets them.

When this irony is further confused by cynicism it makes the whole topic, which is already emotive and carries charge, explosive. This is why there is so much rudeness and pointed aggression in this field. It is not envy, it is the result of frustration at not being able to get at the bottom line, the bare truth. This makes people mad, I can understand it.

Now you see, additionally, because as I have explained to precede this, the public are accustomed to being able to "FUDGE" this and that, by making excuses, or telling fibs, or finding "loopholes", then, when they encounter this unfamiliar, merciless world and they try to apply the rulesets that serve them well in ordinary life , which here do not work and cannot work for all the reasons that I am unfolding before you, then not only is it that they cannot cope, they are prevented from understanding or realising WHY they cannot cope. This is maddening, is it not ?

Now we are begininning to see that the majority who aspire are at a very great disadvantage. Horrendous disadvantage. But it is not their fault. They are the product of the society that creates them. I say this because the requirement of society is specific, but elusively subtle. We could say that the climate of society is not a healthy one for the trader plant to grow up in........More tomorrow............

Continued in Post No 146.
 
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Socrates, I am thrilled to see you posting again! I found your 'journey' thread quite useful, and was disappointed at the way it ended.

Gardan, at the beginning of this thead you asked:
3, Do traders have any thoughts on who are the good guys-gals /bad guys-gals to watch for on this site
I am sorry to answer your question after such a delay, but have just now found this thread. (I was busy asking silling questions of my own elsewhere.) Your question causes me to wonder if you understand the nature of an anonymous bulletin board such as this one. ... Although reading this board regularly is one part of my quest for understanding, I constantly feel the need to remind myself of the obvious:


This entire website may be here only for the purpose of drawing fresh money to the pit. The many legendary members and moderators whose opinions I most esteem may be nothing more than 2 or 3 paid agents of brokers who have learned to masquerade well and to use this format for their own PR purposes. Some of the posters here appear to know each other personally in face to face settings outside of this discussion board. All of this could be just one more clever layer of deceit. There may actually be no such thing as a successful trader, only a collection of traders in differing stages of losing their net worth...

(That said, if you all *are* just scamming us, I have to say - my hat is off to you. I have never seen such character development, such honest emotion, such drama anywhere else. Your occasional inclusion of little spats alongside information that is accurate and factual is brilliant. The technique of using a character like 'Gardan' to 'draw socrates' back into the discussion boards nearly makes me blush it was so artfully done! )​

And yet, even after the reminder, I still find myself drawn here, hoping for some useful cluster or nugget to add to my web of knowledge. Hoping also to contribute in some way. If you are a real person who is contributing here for your own reasons, surely you can see that I mean no offense. I eagerly await the next installment of information that costs me nothing but the time it takes to evaluate it. The truth is there is no way for a wannabe trader to sort out the wheat from the chaff except through hard work. We must read, study, watch the markets, learn about ourselves, do simulations, understand the risk, put our insurance in place and then leap. Did we understand the material laid out before us? Did we properly evaluate the source? Only our bank balance will tell us for sure.

JO
 
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JumpOff said:
Socrates, I am thrilled to see you posting again! I found your 'journey' thread quite useful, and was disappointed at the way it ended.

Gardan, at the beginning of this thead you asked: I am sorry to answer your question after such a delay, but have just now found this thread. (I was busy asking silling questions of my own elsewhere.) Your question causes me to wonder if you understand the nature of an anonymous bulletin board such as this one. ... Although reading this board regularly is one part of my quest for understanding, I constantly feel the need to remind myself of the obvious:


This entire website may be here only for the purpose of drawing fresh money to the pit. The many legendary members and moderators whose opinions I most esteem may be nothing more than 2 or 3 paid agents of brokers who have learned to masquerade well and to use this format for their own PR purposes. Some of the posters here appear to know each other personally in face to face settings outside of this discussion board. All of this could be just one more clever layer of deceit. There may actually be no such thing as a successful trader, only a collection of traders in differing stages of losing their net worth...

(That said, if you all *are* just scamming us, I have to say - my hat is off to you. I have never seen such character development, such honest emotion, such drama anywhere else. Your occasional inclusion of little spats alongside information that is accurate and factual is brilliant. The technique of using a character like 'Gardan' to 'draw socrates' back into the discussion boards nearly makes me blush it was so artfully done! )​

And yet, even after the reminder, I still find myself drawn here, hoping for some useful cluster or nugget to add to my web of knowledge. Hoping also to contribute in some way. If you are a real person who is contributing here for your own reasons, surely you can see that I mean no offense. I eagerly await the next installment of information that costs me nothing but the time it takes to evaluate it. The truth is there is no way for a wannabe trader to sort out the wheat from the chaff except through hard work. We must read, study, watch the markets, learn about ourselves, do simulations, understand the risk, put our insurance in place and then leap. Did we understand the material laid out before us? Did we properly evaluate the source? Only our bank balance will tell us for sure.

JO

As a member who joined this Board at its inception, with the demise of a previouse Bulletin Board, and set up by Paul (aka Sharky) at his own expense, I can assure you the Moderators and Ledgendaries all came the way of us all, and this Board was not set up other than by enthusiastic Traders who wished to help any other Traders, or someone aspiring to become one.

John
 
What a truly excellent thread, congratulations to all those involved. A specially mention of course for Socrates who obviously spends a considerable amount of time and expertise in constructing his posts.

I’m in the process of constructing some demented ramblings of my own for submission. The subject of market psychology is an immense and complex business yet is one which everyone will need to tackle.

More later,
Steve.
 
Socrates

I could not agree more with your following comment

"Consider you entering the market as an act of faith, an enactment of trust in your intent. You do not intend to be thwarted or hijacked, you want to have insurance against this happening and seriously damaging your project. A stop is a form of insurance against serious damage occurring to your project. Avail yourself of this protection, because it is unwise not to."

Your research and hard effort in developing a trading plan creates the faith and trust you mention. I have been applying my own analogy and my stop is my business risk which protects my capital. When there is an explosion of customers buying the products then the hardest part is not protecting your capital but knowing when to take the profit. However in the early stages of the new product when customers have been few and begin to fade, I look to stop inside the risk level where clearly the customers do not find the product attractive enough to buy into them. This brings an end to this particular business venture earlier than originally considered reducing the business risk. While a business may have a risk level the owner can make good use of knowing his product and knowing his customers and if it is not working he/she can reduce the risk on a failing business venture.

Regards

Kevin
 
Reply to Jumpoff post 133

[QUOTE=Your question causes me to wonder if you understand the nature of an anonymous bulletin board such as this one.

Gary answer:Jumpoff, yes I do, but may not be as sceptical as you, I reserve the right to be as sceptical as you as I learn more.

Jumpoff Quote:This entire website may be here only for the purpose of drawing fresh money to the pit. The many legendary members and moderators whose opinions I most esteem may be nothing more than 2 or 3 paid agents of brokers who have learned to masquerade well and to use this format for their own PR purposes. Some of the posters here appear to know each other personally in face to face settings outside of this discussion board. All of this could be just one more clever layer of deceit. There may actually be no such thing as a successful trader, only a collection of traders in differing stages of losing their net worth...

Gary answer: WOW what a thought. Who knows you could be right. That means, I may be you and you may be me and Socrates may be me also. I think he may clever enough to do this if he wished but I asure you I am real,I think??? Socrates could well be me but after you have met me,I think it would be obvious within 5 minutes, I could never be SOCRATES.
It's intriguing to think that Socrates could be a six foot two,handsome(mill's&boom type) tanned,Witty,charming,successful scouser, (Newtonbomb,be quite) but I don't think so.

Why don't we meet for a spot of lunch.

I think you are right to offer a cautionary note about bulletin boards. I'ts a good reminder to us all that things are not always as they seem.
However all the Free advice and support I have received thus far, so far has not cost me a penny. I am still at this point very optimistic(as above reserve the right to change this view)

Just one more point. I think if I went back to school for another ten/twenty/ever years I would never become as articulate as Socrates(Please check my posts for English & grammar)
But to be fair Socrates will never be as Witty as me.....Joke (honest, I know I said I would'nt
but seems appropriate here)
Jumpoff,let's meet for lunch. Socrates brush up on your scouse accent.hee..hee.

Thanks
 
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Jumpoff , If you do wish to meet, I may have to wear a red rose! lot's of six foot two handsome chaps in Liverpool,you understand?
 
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Gardan

I believe you may have inadvertantly quoted Jumpoff, thinking it was Uncle.

Rgds.
 
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