Bund Outrights RogueTrader Style

struggling this week, maybe i should do the opposite of what i intend to do???? markets are trading weird, is it because of rate decision tomorrow?
 
its august....the 1st anniversary of credit crunch .........school holidays so most major city bank's decision makers on hols so no big conviction plays being made, thin mkts as a result and therefore spikey bund. august is my bogie month.........(n)
 
yea these unexpected spikes are what are killing me (especially when there is no retracement). Also, getting out of perfectly good positions at the worst time (or even worse, reversing) then watching it go where it should have gone in the first place.

the market seems to know all my weaknesses and uses them so well against me.

taking tomorrow off since decision bingo day. maybe i'll have better luck friday morning to end the week even.
 
Hi RogueTrader888888,

Interesting reading your journal. Post some of your trades (with charts) on the thread. Would be good to see your winners and losers. It may also help you with the discipline side of things.

Cheers.
 
Post some of your trades (with charts) on the thread. Would be good to see your winners and losers. It may also help you with the discipline side of things.
Click to expand...

Will do starting next week. Will be good to get some different viewpoints, strategies and levels.
 
bearish today if anything, should test the 113.44 level sometime today then down to 24/26.
on the upside 113.60/61 is struggling to breakthrough so its probably a good place to sell.

anyway im stopped out for today since trying to catch a bearish trend ealier around the 54/55 area didnt materialise and had to take a loss in the highs (typical).
 
do you have a 'system' or are you just thinking that looks high, i'll sell it?
 
I'm pretty much a discretionary scalper. I look at support/resistance levels more than anything, which are provided to me in the mornings but i try to come up with my own levels but looking at the 1, 5 and 30 minute charts.
 
Thought about trading STIRS instead of the bund? With the exception of sterling they were all really easy to trade today. Bit like the bund but less weirdly erratic. Swiss and Eurodollar just sell them, Euribor get inside the mind of the gentleman flipping and join in quietly with his little tricks.

Or if you have a fifty thousand lot limit **** him. If I did I think I could take all his ill gotten gains in one trade :D
 
Thought about trading STIRS instead of the bund?
Click to expand...

lots of people do it in my office. i used to trade shatz euribor and it was sooo expensive in terms of roundtrips and hate the whole "hedging" thing and ultimately lots of "legging in and out" and trying not to get caught.

I like the bund but frustrating as hell like days like today where its got pretty much a 10 tick range and on an average day u can sell the lows when u feel like goign to be testing the initial support level and the retracement is so quick. market nowaydays lacking real liquidity since sizes go through so quickly without any warning where it SHOULD go in 50s and 100s and give u enough warning time to take a small loss instead of a big one. Bund turning out to be my worst enemy.

Might switch to the T-note in the afternoon since I have got a hold of an interesting american charting system that gives signals in turning points in the markets.
 
My thoughts for the day/week

decent level at 114.05/07, didnt really break that too much - quite a bit of resistance up there. short-term bearish, long term bullish.

this price should be prove key tomorrow. morning should be very quiet and small range. afternoon, looking forward to industrial production, university of michigan confidence.

will give more detailed analysis later, going home now.
 
Liquidity?! Wasn't looking at bund ladder but there was no liquidity in STIRS.

Made five months rent out of it though so probably shouldn't complain.

Rouge I reckon when four different ECB members come on the wires on the same day two at the same time they're trying to tell us something. Agree with you market is likely to be around here come next Thursday although it will probably sell off at slightest provocation in the mean time. Then on ECB speech we should see complete and utter carnage.

My thoughts at the moment anyway, but I changed my signature for a reason.
 
There's been some great intraday opportunity in the Bund during the last few days.

Makes a nice change from what has been a pretty dull August!
 
this sh!t happens every summer guys, it's just that current conditions exaccerbate matters - Bernanke carries equal weight in the calendar as a full card at Towcester or a good weather forecast for the weekend. Once the full boarders are shoved back into school things should pick up.
 
Anybody else had to reduce their size because of the increased volatility? This is madness, I dont mind movement but some of the moves in the morning are just weird.

...learning to watch orderbook closely now and counter-act spoofers - screw charts and lagging indicators (they have their purposes but are so limited), the answers are right in front of you (TT orderbook!).
 
RogueTrader888888 said:
Anybody else had to reduce their size because of the increased volatility? This is madness, I dont mind movement but some of the moves in the morning are just weird.

...learning to watch orderbook closely now and counter-act spoofers - screw charts and lagging indicators (they have their purposes but are so limited), the answers are right in front of you (TT orderbook!).
Click to expand...

I've found the Bund to be a very hard trade over the past week or so. Reducing size is the best policy when you can't seem to get a handle on the price action. Just make sure to increase it again once you're back on form.

Also, good to hear you've found a style/niche of trading that agrees with you. (y)
 
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