arabianights
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I still don't quite understand what to be looking for - I don't see anything unusual in either volume or price
Best Thread Bund Bobl and Schatz Thread
arabianights
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Whoever that bund seller was is now looking like a prophet 
Hi guys. This is my first post so please excuse my noobness but I can’t find answers to my questions anywhere on here.
I recently started trading Euribor-Schatz spreads and I was wondering if any of you guys trade the spread in the auction when the Schatz opens at 7? I’m told you can estimate where it should be opening by looking at the US T note (and or the Bund) and calculating the predicted spread. If it opens to high or low you buy or sell the spread before it corrects itself within a few seconds. Apparently it’s easy to work out but I’m stumped. Any help would be much appreciated.
I recently started trading Euribor-Schatz spreads and I was wondering if any of you guys trade the spread in the auction when the Schatz opens at 7? I’m told you can estimate where it should be opening by looking at the US T note (and or the Bund) and calculating the predicted spread. If it opens to high or low you buy or sell the spread before it corrects itself within a few seconds. Apparently it’s easy to work out but I’m stumped. Any help would be much appreciated.
I have a few questions, I'll number them for readability (and feel free to decline to comment if you don't want to share that kind of information):
1. Why are you so sure that the schatz lags the bund? (I'm not saying it does not, just wanting to know why...). Did you notice other lead/lag relationships of all three contracts. Sometimes I Schatz and Bobl move in one direction but Bund doesn't or Bund overshoots and then it comes back. The bund then slowly adjusts to the other two markets.
2. How far is your stop away most of the time when you're aiming for 3 ticks?
3. Do you exit immediately with market orders or do you try to work it with limit orders when the market is moving against you?
4. How many orders do you trade at a time.
5. Do you have a comment on limit orders that all of the sudden appear and disappear in a split second away from the inside market? E.g. I see 500 contracts on one side, then all of sudden it's 3000 contracts and less than 0.1 second it's 500 gain? I can't make much of it. I was thinking that it might be a local trying to fool analysics (automated trading programs) or something of that sort, cause they are unlikely to spoof human traders with that.
I find the tick value to be rather small to justify trading the schatz vs. the bund since at most brokers you're paying the same commission for each market. So the tick gain vs. commission is twice as large on the bund. But I see that you still have a pretty good risk/reward going for 3/4 ticks when your were risking just 1 tick.
P.S.: I trade the bund also based on DOM and T&S and I find that everything you have said so far about its patterns is true, and very well described by the way. This is probably the best thread on order book analysis in these markets that I have read so far in a forum (well anywhere for that matter, you most certainly won't find it in a book by some self-proclaimed guru ;-)).
Sounds exactly what Jesse Livermore or other pool operators were doing in the old days. Make the market go up while selling more than your buying.
So what do you think what is happening in the case you described above?
I think somebody is just trying to accumulate a larger short position. He's offering and s hitting all the bids that step up and when nobody is left he shows his offers again hoping somebody will lift him.
DaxDestroyer
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Hi, I was wondering is anyone spreading Schatz / Bobl, if so is there many scalping oppotunties. Also if anyone is trading other yield curve spreads or even the fly any information you have about number of oppotuntities would be appreciated. Obviously the most volatile spread is schatz / bund.
Cheers
Cheers
davedavethetrader
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what you will win scalping schatz bund, you will lose when the curve changes. if your lucky, your first trades will be winners.... give you some money to give back... although, in reality, youd be better off being unlucky from the off and looking elsewhere. save you the same, ultimately, disappointing journey as many a local before you.
Hi All,
Why do you belive this is the case? I used to trade Bund's, Bobl and Schatz outrights over at Marex, stoped trading about 2 years ago, children and relocation reasons, looking to re enter the markets with my own funds from home. Would like to use a less risky strategies to what I was using at Marex, as it is my money and not there's I will be using. Also does anyone use the Bunxl to spread with. Would also potentially look at the potential in spreading cross markets ie Bunds Vs Gilts, Gilts vs T-Notes or anything similar. Equities may be another viable option if not such as, Stoxx / Cac , Stoxx/ES. So would be interested to here if anyone has been doing this, how they have been doing good or bad.
Many thanks
Why do you belive this is the case? I used to trade Bund's, Bobl and Schatz outrights over at Marex, stoped trading about 2 years ago, children and relocation reasons, looking to re enter the markets with my own funds from home. Would like to use a less risky strategies to what I was using at Marex, as it is my money and not there's I will be using. Also does anyone use the Bunxl to spread with. Would also potentially look at the potential in spreading cross markets ie Bunds Vs Gilts, Gilts vs T-Notes or anything similar. Equities may be another viable option if not such as, Stoxx / Cac , Stoxx/ES. So would be interested to here if anyone has been doing this, how they have been doing good or bad.
Many thanks
