Brexit and the Consequences

Released this morning: French GDP increased by 0.6% in Q4 2017

https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/3315345

...and for the UK

Release date: 22 February 2018

"UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.4% between Quarter 3 (July to Sept) and Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2017; this is a 0.1 percentage point revision down from the preliminary estimate of GDP, in part reflecting a small downward revision to the estimated output of the production industries."

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp

Amazing what can be achieved when you throw enough funny money at it.
 
It's worth pointing out that without the UK's contribution to the EU budget, that they are actually bust. Just thought i'd mention it for the sake of balance.
 
With us being traders and analysts, do you wonder if we over analyse and get far to deep into these figures,? I mean, how will it have a direct affect on me personally if GDP dropped by 1% ?? There’s more to life, and more important things to worry about, none of us are getting out of this place alive you know...:LOL:

Quite right Mike. Brexit as I see it is about a whole lot more than money.
 
Whilst I do sincerely hope that things turn out well for both the UK and the EU, whatever the longer term effects there is going to some instability over the next few years, at least.

I understand that it's fashionable (at least for the majority on this thread) to ignore history and the only thing I can say to counter this attitude is that this is at least akin - if not identical - to ignoring context....which tends to turn out badly when making decisions.

Another recurrent theme here is a general failure to recognize what life is really like in other parts of the EU. Yes, ignorance can be bliss but deliberate ignorance makes for a pretty good facsimile for stupidity.

....and whilst I'm on the subject of ignorance: ignoring what politicians say is something that we should have all learned to do in our youth (apologies to the still youthful) and listening to mainstream media for accurate and truthful information should be treated in the same way. Most people here are traders and as traders I'd suggest that we are used to gathering our own data, doing our own analysis and making our own decisions - it's curious that when faced with a decision that will affect our great grand-children we abandon this approach and put our faith in.....Who or what exactly?

...and now for some boring old history / context. Liam Fox (another not very talented individual who happened to put himself up for election) tells us that the UK is doing well in manufacturing and yes, using certain criteria, things do look pretty good - like if you ignore how well the rest of the EU is doing. Relative and absolute performance are poles apart and willfully ignoring the unassailable fact that the rest of the world is changing whilst trumpeting Britain's own change is either cynical or short-sighted, depending on your side of the fence. Being sort of "on the fence" myself, I think it's both.

To illustrate what's actually been going on (which has very little to do with the EU) please see the attached ONS pic which shows how the UK is doing when it comes to manufacturing. Though the ONS numbers are not wholly Holy Writ, they're on balance probably more reliable than anything that comes out of a politician's preferred orifice or from the inventive pen of some sensationalist hack.

For your delectation: https://visual.ons.gov.uk/uk-trade-partners/

An amusing aside to the Fox's manufacturing speech is that he referred to those lovely jobs that would be secured by making some grommets for Airbus - a heavier than air machine currently manufactured by EADS, the European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company. I'm sure that the irony of his mentioning this is not lost on you....and just in case any one would like to point out that EADS and Airbus are different animals, do have a gander at who actually runs Airbus.

http://www.airbus.com/company/corporate-governance/organisation.html

An up to date chart would be useful.

Here's a list showing the UK to be in 9th position in terms of manufacturing. One could argue that we will soon overtake France and Italy to gain 7th spot, in line with the UK being the 7th largest economy!

https://www.themanufacturer.com/uk-manufacturing-statistics/
 
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With us being traders and analysts, do you wonder if we over analyse and get far to deep into these figures,? I mean, how will it have a direct affect on me personally if GDP dropped by 1% ?? There’s more to life, and more important things to worry about, none of us are getting out of this place alive you know...:LOL:

Personally (and I do mean the direct effect), unless the shooting gets truly out of hand, a crash / recession / bust doesn't affect me at all. I mentioned the comparative numbers only in the context of the "We'll be better / worse off" pi$$ing race.

As to your last point - speak for yourself! I have my gold-lined diamond encrusted cryo-pod safely stored next to my Sinclair C5.
 
Well i'm sure we can agree that all money is funny when it can be produced out of thin air, backed up by absolutely nothing. Quite why we allow this to happen is a complete mystery to me.

I'd go even further: any money that isn't backed by gold is pretty humorous. We've been in ho-ho land for a long time already.
 
Quite right Mike. Brexit as I see it is about a whole lot more than money.

Absolutely! We have a long history of democracy in this country and can certainly show the EU and some of its members a thing or two.

I see the latest political stunt of the EU is an attempt to annex part of the British Isles – wasn't our old mate Adolf the last person to do that? Time for some Churchillian state of thinking methinks – sorry Attilla :LOL:
 
Absolutely! We have a long history of democracy in this country and can certainly show the EU and some of its members a thing or two.

I see the latest political stunt of the EU is an attempt to annex part of the British Isles – wasn't our old mate Adolf the last person to do that? Time for some Churchillian state of thinking methinks – sorry Attilla :LOL:

I feel sorry for the EU, these things are out of their control, after all they are in the pockets of Soros' €Billions, they have no choice but to find ways of appeasing Soros and undermining the Brexit process and making it as difficult as they can before the guillotine finally comes down, otherwise they won't get paid. I suspect UK Labour have also been bought by Soros.

British bulldog spirit will see us through.
 
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I feel sorry for the EU, these things are out of their control, after all they are in the pockets of Soros' €Billions, they have no choice but to find ways of appeasing Soros and undermining the Brexit process and making it as difficult as they can before the guillotine finally comes down, otherwise they won't get paid. I suspect UK Labour have also been bought by Soros.

British bulldog spirit will see us through.

Sarcasm is the lowest form of wit:p
 
As more than often a sensible post is made and the usual Brexit crowd respond with laughter and 'silly' posts mocking.

It is getting to a point where Eurosceptics have lost all rational thought. Moreover there unique selling point seems to be we are British we can bloody well do what ever we want and like.

Well no you can't. Against a well organised and experienced front you'll poop in your pants.


John Major has called upon TM to put country before party. She and you lot too should sit up and pay attention to what he says.


Fox trying to talk up a crap numbers. His talk may go down well with the common man but against informed opinion it's just empty talk. I picked up on his opening speech which was good. What kind of a economy do we want?

He didn't deliver an answer but I can tell you it will be low tax low skilled highly mechanised industries much like Amazon. I don't think British labour force has the stomach or the effort required to work in such industries. There is much pain and suffering coming to Brexiteers way if they are not stopped.

Hope and glory boys in for rude awakening otherwise.
 

Isn't this the the same John Major who, during the remain campaign in May 2016 promised voters there would not be a 2nd referendum? Now he's called for a free vote in the Commons on whether to hold a 2nd referendum. This is the man who foisted Maastricht treaty upon us – and no choice about it. Hardly one of Britain's greatest Prime Ministers I would say. (n)
 
Isn't this the the same John Major who, during the remain campaign in May 2016 promised voters there would not be a 2nd referendum? Now he's called for a free vote in the Commons on whether to hold a 2nd referendum. This is the man who foisted Maastricht treaty upon us – and no choice about it. Hardly one of Britain's greatest Prime Ministers I would say. (n)

Let me just find my comment on that link. :)

287. Posted by You on
3 hours ago

Major is just bitter because he had a hard time being a convincing liar when he was in office. He was the one that really sold out the UK, when it was obvious that the British voters had had enough of the EU.

Here we are 25 years later and all he is interested in is continuing to defend his wrong position.
 
So in what negative way has the Maastricht Treaty ever impacted or effected you?

UK hasn't done too badly since 1992?

If anything it granted workers protection on pay, health and safety. Based on CV's rant if he understood underlying factors he should be praising its value from rooftops.


What has the EU done for the UK?





The growth effect
Britain joined what was then the European Economic Community in 1973 as the sick man of Europe. By the late 1960s, France, West Germany and Italy — the three founder members closest in size to the UK — produced more per person than it did and the gap grew larger every year. Between 1958, when the EEC was set up, and Britain’s entry in 1973, gross domestic product per head rose 95 per cent in these three countries compared with only 50 per cent in Britain.

After becoming an EEC member, Britain slowly began to catch up. Gross domestic product per person has grown faster than Italy, Germany and France in the more than 40 years since. By 2013, Britain became more prosperous than the average of the three other large European economies for the first time since 1965.

Professor Nauro Campos of Brunel University has estimated how Britain would have fared if it had not joined the common market. He and his colleagues found the best approximation to Britain’s pre-1973 economic performance to be a combination of New Zealand and Argentina, which like the UK fell behind the US and continental Europe.



These are facts. Not hype or ropey hopey stuff you all trumpet and bang your drums about. FGS get a grip on your economic history and leave war out of it. :(
 
So in what negative way has the Maastricht Treaty ever impacted or effected you?

UK hasn't done too badly since 1992?

If anything it granted workers protection on pay, health and safety. Based on CV's rant if he understood underlying factors he should be praising its value from rooftops.


What has the EU done for the UK?





The growth effect
Britain joined what was then the European Economic Community in 1973 as the sick man of Europe. By the late 1960s, France, West Germany and Italy — the three founder members closest in size to the UK — produced more per person than it did and the gap grew larger every year. Between 1958, when the EEC was set up, and Britain’s entry in 1973, gross domestic product per head rose 95 per cent in these three countries compared with only 50 per cent in Britain.

After becoming an EEC member, Britain slowly began to catch up. Gross domestic product per person has grown faster than Italy, Germany and France in the more than 40 years since. By 2013, Britain became more prosperous than the average of the three other large European economies for the first time since 1965.

Professor Nauro Campos of Brunel University has estimated how Britain would have fared if it had not joined the common market. He and his colleagues found the best approximation to Britain’s pre-1973 economic performance to be a combination of New Zealand and Argentina, which like the UK fell behind the US and continental Europe.



These are facts. Not hype or ropey hopey stuff you all trumpet and bang your drums about. FGS get a grip on your economic history and leave war out of it. :(

The reader comments are more interesting than that puff piece of an article.

If I could be bothered commenting it would read like this.
It was Thatcher that turned the UK around as we all know very well, not the EU, as remoaners would like us to believe. :)

http://www.aei.org/publication/how-margaret-thatcher-turned-around-great-britain-in-one-chart/
 
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