Brexit and the Consequences

[Signalcalc]

The rise in 'non-Western' consumerism and middle classes is startling when you are travelling around those regions. They appear to be around 20 years behind in some respects, so the next 20 years will see even more explosive growth, we would do well to be looking outside the EU for a British trade ticket for the next 2-3 decades.

Of course the EU doesn't want this with its protectionist policies.

 

[counter_violent]

Time for a govt petition?

I want my share of the 800bn tied up in EU assets.

signed CV

 

[barjon]

Nice letter in Sunday Times today

"Last June I decided to quit my local golf club, as I didn't like all the rules, found some members objectionable and resented the annual fee.

However, it is a superb course and is on the doorstep. Accordingly, when I went before the 27 member committee to tender my resignation, I informed it that I would still expect access to the course, would choose which members I played with and which rules I obeyed, but would no longer be paying the membership fee. I'm still awaiting a reply.

Bob Marlow, Sutton Coldfield"

 

[counter_violent]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-39885399

Oh dear oh dear. Is this the best they can do !

Vote anyone but Tory and let the chaos ensue.

 

[Atilla]

This man voted Brexit!

Now the UK, much like him are heading into a speeding crash.


http://www.standard.co.uk/news/lond...sing-and-is-nearly-hit-by-train-a3537091.html


Remaining bystanders pleaded with the Brexiters to wait, but they screamed back “I don’t f****** care mate” – a split-second before the Euro-train rushed past.


Let's just stop and think about this for a second. No feck it. Let's just get on with it. British people have spoken.

 

[Signalcalc]

Let's just get on with it. British people have spoken.

Do I detect just the slightest whiff of acceptance in that last statement [emoji38]

 

[Atilla]

Do I detect just the slightest whiff of acceptance in that last statement [emoji38]

More pong in that whiff then anything else if you ask me. :whistling

 

[jah_b]

UK’s recent economic data has revived fears of Brexit slowdown.Q1 GDP fell to 0.3% vs 0.7% in previous quarter. March industrial production data, released last week, was weaker than estimates. Trade deficit has widened and is at six-month high.

The story so far
UK’s resilient growth in 2016 defied Brexit fears following the referendum as the economy benefitted from a monetary stimulus that spurred consumption and a weak pound that helped exporters. But it turns out 2016 was a transition year with Brexit impact becoming tangible in 2017.

Brexit impact becomes real
UK’s recent economic data is discouraging. A weak sterling is contributing to higher inflation that is eating away consumer wealth as rising unemployment and business cost cutting keep lid on wages. This has impacted consumer spending, a major driver of UK’s economic growth. Investment is suffering too as businesses hold back investments in an uncertain environment. Slowing investment, consumption demand are expected to weigh on growth in 2017.

It not doomsday yet, but uncertainty is the order of the day
A weak pound will continue to help exporters and a mildly supportive fiscal policy is might support consumption, making the slowdown a bit modest. But the fact remains that downward risks to growth from consumption and investment slowdown far outweigh the upward risks from a weak pound. As negotiations between UK-EU get rolling, roadblocks like possibilities of “Hard Brexit”, negotiations breaking down, etc. could add to downside risks, but it’s definitely not a doomsday scenario for UK’s growth story, at least for now.

 

[Atilla]

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-brexit-barometer/

The Bloomberg Brexit Barometer dropped the most in more than six months as U.K. inflation reached a three-year high in April. Boosted by air fares, clothing and energy, consumer-price growth accelerated to 2.7 percent -- topping economists’ forecasts. British car sales tumbled 20 percent after a new excise duty came into effect on April 1, and the country is bracing for further drops in demand. The barometer slid to 21.6, its lowest since Jan. 16.

 

[Atilla]

Worth listening to Mandelson and what he has to say carefully.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...to-quit-brexit-talks-if-it-faces-massive-bill

:|

 

[counter_violent]

Worth listening to Mandelson and what he has to say carefully.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...to-quit-brexit-talks-if-it-faces-massive-bill

:|

Well that's 5mins of my time I can't get back.

When he mentioned back door, I understandably turned off

They are clutching at straws now, rehashing the same drivel, nobody is listening. What is there not to get !

 

[Atilla]

Well that's 5mins of my time I can't get back.

When he mentioned back door, I understandably turned off

They are clutching at straws now, rehashing the same drivel, nobody is listening. What is there not to get !

Well I'm sure glad you get it all whilst the experts are scratching their heads.

Say hi to your friend Michael Gove

 

[cantagril]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-39885399

Vote anyone but Tory and let the chaos ensue.

My concern with all this is very simple - it doesn't actually matter who wins the election as we're going to get some degree of "chaos" one way or the other. Things will eventually settle down and we'll get to a new normal once again ...and you never know, it might even be during our lifetimes

I'm minded of what happened when the colonies of Africa claimed their rightful independence. Some did OK-ish whilst others are still picking up the pieces. The principle of the right to go one's own way is indisputable but when the execution is about as certain as the markets then we would do well to be very very cautious.

Two sayings might be apposite - "There are old pilots, and there are bold pilots...but there are no old bold pilots" and secondly, the Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times!".

I definitely belong in the un-bold camp and times are going to get very interesting indeed.

 

[tomorton]

My concern with all this is very simple - it doesn't actually matter who wins the election as we're going to get some degree of "chaos" one way or the other. Things will eventually settle down and we'll get to a new normal once again ...and you never know, it might even be during our lifetimes

I think it does matter, as Labour top people are committed to abolishing the current system in favour of a Marxist economy. "Chaos" wouldn't come close.

 

[Atilla]

All three manifestos excellent imho. Key positives are:

TM good to address aging crises on NHS and pensions but feel Tories will undermine her in fear of losing elderly votes.

Labour has right idea to tax £80K + earners and raise Corporation Tax to meet NHS funding and madke higher education free again. Youth and skills are the future.

LibDems also right to put 1p on the £ to help NHS and legalise cannabis which is a drain on resources, criminalises people and based on US experience can easily raise £2bn in tax revenue. Oh and most importantly, give the British public a say on the final deal when we know it doesn't look like some daft words on the side of a double decker red bus.


Sadly the black sheep in all this is stupid Brexit fiasco which will bring naff all but pain and strife to the UK.

 

[cantagril]

I think it does matter, as Labour top people are committed to abolishing the current system in favour of a Marxist economy. "Chaos" wouldn't come close.

Again, I beg to differ - whilst all the political parties have some good ideas (mixed in with the real dogs) this is still a one horse race and that one runner IMHO is barking up the wrong end of the stick without a paddle.

I believe Brexit to be inevitable and whether it turns out eventually to be a roaring success or a whimpering failure is going to be a matter of many years. In the meantime I'm minded of Sam's pithy remark on a totally different subject "... It is not done well; but you are surprised to find it done at all."

 

[tomorton]

Again, I beg to differ - whilst all the political parties have some good ideas (mixed in with the real dogs) this is still a one horse race and that one runner IMHO is barking up the wrong end of the stick without a paddle.

I believe Brexit to be inevitable and whether it turns out eventually to be a roaring success or a whimpering failure is going to be a matter of many years. In the meantime I'm minded of Sam's pithy remark on a totally different subject "... It is not done well; but you are surprised to find it done at all."

Some good ideas in a manifesto is a very low bar. If you throw enough ideas at the public, some will appeal to anyone. Plus, manifesto promises are notoriously worthless once the authors are in power.

Yes, Brexit is inevitable now, and all hinges on the detail of how its done. Neither main party can claim great position here - one cynically tried to use the Brexit referendum as an internal party disciplinary measure, the other abstained from the campaign.

But I couldn't sleep soundly at night if I voted for the specimens who are proud to draw political inspiration from the likes of Mao, Chavez, Castro and Hoxha.

 

[cantagril]

I couldn't sleep soundly at night if I voted for the specimens who are proud to draw political inspiration from the likes of Mao, Chavez, Castro and Hoxha.

Wot? 5 year plan not good enough for you?

Alas, sleepless nights are common currency (ho ho) for the man of conscience. Voting for any of the present sorry bunch of pretenders should give anybody nightmares. For the first time in a few decades, I find myself envying the French who in their own bloody-minded, ****-about-face fashion endowed themselves with a real choice. Against all expectations, maybe they even elected the right guy.....

 

[cantagril]

....and I nearly forgot:

 

[Atilla]

Again, I beg to differ - whilst all the political parties have some good ideas (mixed in with the real dogs) this is still a one horse race and that one runner IMHO is barking up the wrong end of the stick without a paddle.

I believe Brexit to be inevitable and whether it turns out eventually to be a roaring success or a whimpering failure is going to be a matter of many years. In the meantime I'm minded of Sam's pithy remark on a totally different subject "... It is not done well; but you are surprised to find it done at all."

Once again I agree with much of what you say but this one horse thingymejig not sure about.

She is already losing ground for losing the elderly vote, plus some deep breath intakes by some rank and file Tories, aghast from what vision of the Red Tory she may have.

On the other hand Labour party doesn't look all that bad. Jeremy Corbyn steady as a rock come what may, principled strong leader and now gaining credibility and recognition for having some good ideas. Tories lose the pensioner vote, Labour gets all the young university bods recruited to their cause and save the NHS.

LibDems chug-along increasing votes from the pro-Brexit camp.

I don't feel the race is over by far. Not one for giving up. Always fight to the end. Considering poll surprises of the pass, I feel another one may well be due.