Bob Volman Price Action Scalping

[Danoteles]

Hi guys,

Would you trade the only move of today's EURUSD action?

 

[samich1262]

Hi guys,

Would you trade the only move of today's EURUSD action?

Hmm, I didn't feel like there was enough pressure on the first break. I would've skipped that, and then because that didn't have the build-up that I like to see, I would've also skipped the other setups and expected a retest. It was a weird chart today given the bank holiday.

 

[MrBrunotte]

Hello Danoteles,
I did one trade yesterday and lost 6 ticks (6E Futures) and since it was a US bank holiday it was such a low volume market and it ranged almost all day until the break at 15:54. Since it had been such a sleepy market all day and also that it had been in a TR all day I would think that it was a high probablilty that the up break would be followed by another TR. And since the first new bottom and high around 16:08 is quite narrow it would not be much to work with with the FB and SB (even though it would have worked out)...

Thanks samich1262 for your feedback on my post!..

 

[stehlikpetrmsncom]

So today I spent 7,5 hours trading EURUSD and didn't see a single trade. How did you do?

 

[BLS]

So today I spent 7,5 hours trading EURUSD and didn't see a single trade. How did you do?

Nothing for me either.

 

[samich1262]

So today I spent 7,5 hours trading EURUSD and didn't see a single trade. How did you do?

I saw what I think was an SB but it came after what I thought was an improper RB. Although I don't think I'd call that a range... it was more like a countertrend. Still, I didn't know what to make of it, and the fact that price dropped through resistance without much of a fight, so I skipped. Although it did stop at the low of that countertrend trade... I dunno... was too unsure to take it.



Looks like during the London session there was a BB and an IRB, but I was asleep.

 

[stehlikpetrmsncom]

I saw what I think was an SB but it came after what I thought was an improper RB. Although I don't think I'd call that a range... it was more like a countertrend. Still, I didn't know what to make of it, and the fact that price dropped through resistance without much of a fight, so I skipped. Although it did stop at the low of that countertrend trade... I dunno... was too unsure to take it. View attachment 144028



Looks like during the London session there was a BB and an IRB, but I was asleep.

Where? I was wide awake and didn't spot anything, the market didn't move at all.

 

[samich1262]

Where? I was wide awake and didn't spot anything, the market didn't move at all.

Well, looking at it now, I'm not sure if this BB is a good idea. It's sort of an RB. I have been watching this particular scenario trying to figure out if it is valid or not. I didn't post the IRB because it only went like 8 pips and I'm not sure I liked the setup.

 

[stehlikpetrmsncom]

Well, looking at it now, I'm not sure if this BB is a good idea. It's sort of an RB. I have been watching this particular scenario trying to figure out if it is valid or not. I didn't post the IRB because it only went like 8 pips and I'm not sure I liked the setup.

View attachment 144030

It doesn't look that bad from hindsight, but at the moment I wasn't convinced because the market (up to that break) was slow, moved mostly withing range of 20 pips to the sides and the trade would have to dig through 2 previous lows - would there be enough follow through, since the market was hardly moving (1 bar/1minute on average) ? Since I can't really tell what the odds are, I didn't trade it, but maybe you're right and I missed a BB. Who knows

 

[samich1262]

I figured today would move a lot since yesterday was a holiday. Guess not! Weird...

 

[MrBrunotte]

Hello guys,
I didnt take any trades yesterday either.. I also had a real hard time to find any setups that I felt ok with. The market seemed to hang around round numbers for so long, it looked like good pre-tension breakout was building up with good squeeses but it never broke down below and when it finaly did I didnt feel comfortable to take the trade.. I can find a couple of trades in hindsight as usual, to bad that we cant trade that way!..

 

[MrBrunotte]

Today, Wednesday, it looks like the London session is starting out with a TR around 1,2518 to1,2543. It looks like the market is a littlebit more volatily today than yesterday, and that feels a bit more promising so hopefully there will be some more opportunities today!
We got HL's and HH's since around 08:15 so maybe we can close the gap up to around the 1,2560 area..

I live in Sweden so I start one hour before London (at 08:00 in my chart)

Good luck today!

 

[MrBrunotte]

My first trade today (- 5 ticks)

I took a BB after a RB which I thought looked ok. There was a couple of LL's and I thought it looked like the bears where gaining momentum with two stronger pushes down.. There was however not a good pre-break tension which made me skip the RB. The BB had 5 equal highs and 6 equal lows below the EMA so I thought it was an ok setup.
My big mistake was that I focused on the nr of ticks for my stop, and that is probably because I have had many loosing trades lately.. Wrong focus!!
I was stopped out with the tiny doji bar and then the market turned down again..so annoying!
If I had not been stopped out Im not sure if I would have gotten out with a 7 or 8 tick profit since it was so close to the 00 number but I would have moved my stop down to 1,2510 which would have been + 1 tick at least.

What do you think of this? Does anyone have any other way of analysing this??

The market never reached 1,2500 and it turned north at 1,2503 up to 1,2517.

 

[MrBrunotte]

Second trade (+1 tick)

Did it again but at least I got one tick profit..
I entered on the small RB after a couple of HL's after my last trade. I got in at 1,2519, 1 tick above the RB barrier and I had my stop loss at 1,2514 (the low of the large bullbar). I trailed my stop up to break even after the first 3 doji high and then when that was taken out I got scared of not making anything so I moved my stop up to 00 nr (+1 tick) and once again got stopped out...

It is very frustrating to see that the market just took of and reached 1,2540 7 minutes after I was stopped out.. At least I really know what I have to work with and that is to trust my first thoughts and the 00 support..

 

[MrBrunotte]

Third entry -5 ticks
ARB entry that didnt work out..
We had the high of the day (HOD) around 14:06, a small DT and then a ARB setup, I thought it was a good setup for a bearish pullback down towards -60 area. there was no obstacles down to that area either.
I placed my entry 1 tick below -80 number and my initial stop 1 tick above recent micro swing high..

 

[samich1262]

My first trade today (- 5 ticks)

I think you could have viewed the break of the RB as a BB. That BB looked better to me than the one that you ended up taking. I like to see it bounce off the barrier of the BB a couple times. When it just lines up in a wall against it, they don't seem to break as hard. I think a scenario like that doesn't create as much double pressure.

 

[samich1262]

Third entry -5 ticks
ARB entry that didnt work out..
We had the high of the day (HOD) around 14:06, a small DT and then a ARB setup, I thought it was a good setup for a bearish pullback down towards -60 area. there was no obstacles down to that area either.
I placed my entry 1 tick below -80 number and my initial stop 1 tick above recent micro swing high..

I'm also not sure I would have traded that ARB. When trading ARBs, IRBs or BBs, I have to see overall conditions definitely supporting my trade. If I cover up the chart after the ARB setup, it's hard to tell where this chart is going to go. The pressure looks slightly bearish but you want to be able to see one party emerging, and then get a setup. There are three tops in a row that are only a pip or two off. It's like the market can't decide if it's going to turn bearish or bullish.

This week I'm trying to gauge how much bullish or bearish pressure is enough to warrant taking a setup. Sounds simple, but it's really a little more iffy than one would expect. I found I was taking a lot of setups where conditions right before the setup might be slightly in favor, but overall pressure was even. You might see a double top and then a bearish setup in a bull market, but if it's been bullish enough, the bulls might not be ready to give up that easily. We need to see an unmistakable sign that they could get flushed out.

 

[BLS]

Seems like today's activity was mostly driven by news related to the Euro crisis. At least there was something to trade; at least I as marginally profitable today. I've attached the charts I marked up today that includes some trades I pondered/skipped.

For anybody unfamiliar with my abbreviations:
S: skipped trade
M: missed trade
E#: entry number; an actual trade I took
FB: First Break
SB: Second Break
BB: Block Break
RB: Range Break
IRB: Inside Range Break
T: Tease break

For anyone unfamiliar with Volman's method, you can find an outline of it here:
smilingsynic trading observations etc. | DaytradingBias.com

 

[BLS]

My first trade today (- 5 ticks)

I took a BB after a RB which I thought looked ok. There was a couple of LL's and I thought it looked like the bears where gaining momentum with two stronger pushes down.. There was however not a good pre-break tension which made me skip the RB. The BB had 5 equal highs and 6 equal lows below the EMA so I thought it was an ok setup.
My big mistake was that I focused on the nr of ticks for my stop, and that is probably because I have had many loosing trades lately.. Wrong focus!!
I was stopped out with the tiny doji bar and then the market turned down again..so annoying!
If I had not been stopped out Im not sure if I would have gotten out with a 7 or 8 tick profit since it was so close to the 00 number but I would have moved my stop down to 1,2510 which would have been + 1 tick at least.

What do you think of this? Does anyone have any other way of analysing this??

The market never reached 1,2500 and it turned north at 1,2503 up to 1,2517.

Hard to tell. I'm not familiar with 6E nor do I have a tick feed for it. This is just my personal opinion so take it with a grain of salt.
Pros:
1. Possible vacuum effect to the 1.2500 level
2. Downward pressure

Cons:
1. I don't think the setup was that great. Yes, you have 6 touches but they're all in the middle; the blocks forming the signal line are part of one stalling moment. I would have liked to see a touch, bounce up, touch again, etc. You could argue that 10.8 from the book is a counter example but those setups (at least the last two, I was never comfortable with the first setup) have a pretty strong trend behind it. I don't see a similar strength in the downward pressure here.

I'm trying to trade more conservatively so the setup and the context in which is appeared would have made me hesitate. I would have liked to see a better looking setup.

It's trickier to trade now versus when Bob wrote his book. We just have to trade more carefully until the market improves.

 

[BLS]

Second trade (+1 tick)

Did it again but at least I got one tick profit..
I entered on the small RB after a couple of HL's after my last trade. I got in at 1,2519, 1 tick above the RB barrier and I had my stop loss at 1,2514 (the low of the large bullbar). I trailed my stop up to break even after the first 3 doji high and then when that was taken out I got scared of not making anything so I moved my stop up to 00 nr (+1 tick) and once again got stopped out...

It is very frustrating to see that the market just took of and reached 1,2540 7 minutes after I was stopped out.. At least I really know what I have to work with and that is to trust my first thoughts and the 00 support..

Don't worry too much about it. It's all part of the learning process. You just have to remind yourself that you should always find a technical way to exit a trade manually. I still have trouble with this as I'm still learning to trade well.