Binary Tactics and Manipulation

[NotQuiteRandom]

Consider the TimeSwitches on BetaExoticBets, they are like a chain of forward starting binaries with the first starting now and the last at some time in the future. It does increase your odds relative to a binary in a big way.

I just did a load of them, well worth testing (and you might win their $1000 prize).

When I do binaries on IG I NEVER pay less than 50% for them, I don't like the way they do their spreads as the spread is (as a %) wider for lower priced bets. Buying high priced binaries on binarybet is like selling further OTM vanillas in this regard.

 

[stig]

My system gave me no trades at all today on ftse binaries.

I got precious few today aswell. In fact, I only made 4 trades, all reversals and only 1 was correct although it did return me 30 pts so I can't really grumble. The other 3 lost me about 9 in total.

Hopefully there will be more opportunities tommorrow.

 

[NotQuiteRandom]

I have tried the site you mention but unfortunately, it is beta and by invite only. Unless you have a global password, I think I'll have to wait until it goes live.

use mine.

Username: better
Password: makemoney

Let me know if it works and how you get on. FX markets are open.

 

[doktrade]

Stig, it is very true about patience.
I have even better: computer with a lot patience. I run system by placing bet on IG, then my own data feed to Excel to track real time odds. This gives instant feedback. My system adjust stops dynamic to optimize profit for fixed risk combined on a few bets.
Best way for me has proven with layered approach. Need much discipline and good risk algorithm.
This allows to adjust my risk 5min at a time. Very good and testing now.
Will post specific result if sufficient interest.

 

[riwf]

NotQuiteRandom

Can you tell me the name of the site you're testing? I'd like to have a look at it.

Cheers
riwf

 

[stig]

Stig, it is very true about patience.
I have even better: computer with a lot patience. I run system by placing bet on IG, then my own data feed to Excel to track real time odds. This gives instant feedback. My system adjust stops dynamic to optimize profit for fixed risk combined on a few bets.
Best way for me has proven with layered approach. Need much discipline and good risk algorithm.
This allows to adjust my risk 5min at a time. Very good and testing now.
Will post specific result if sufficient interest.

doktrade, I have no system that feeds info into other software packages or anything even remotely similar so yes, I would be interested to learn more about what you are doing and what the results are. Thank you

 

[NotQuiteRandom]

Sure

www.BetaExoticBets.com/enter

To get into the site you need the following:

Username: better
Password: makemoney

Then you can open a virtual account with $10k. I just got an email from them saying that they are giving away several $1000 prizes to incentivise beta testers.

I had trouble logging in after I opened my account and they emailed me from [email protected] with help (turned out I needed to go back into the site at www.BetaExoticBets.com the second time without the enter. Don't understand why).

I am going nuts with this though. It is great. Never thought I'd see bets this sophisticated.

NQR

 

[riwf]

NQR

Thanks. I've now got a beta membership. Do you know anything about betaexoticmarkets, i.e. British or American (they operate in dollars), who is behind them. I'd hate it if they were phishing, or using testers to filter out the beneficial (to us) trades for when they go live.

riwf

 

[NotQuiteRandom]

I wondered about them as they don't give a lot of info but the site is so well done. If you consider the maths behind it (which is vast for some of the bets) and the phenominal accuracy of their pricing it is evident that they are pros. I suspected that they were part of IG or another big spread betting house who wished to remain anonymous during the testing phase.

Anyway, they replied as follows:


Dear Ryan,

Thank you for your interest in BetaExoticBets.com.

In answer to your questions:

1) We are a private equity backed start up aiming to bring the very best in exotic financial bets to the retail public. Our philosophy is that if we offer these products at or close to fair value in small tickets we will generate a significant amount of trading volume.

2) When we 'go live' we will do so under a different name and branding (but will redirect BetaExoticBets.com to it). We expect this to be in 4 to 6 weeks. The more beta testers we get, the sooner we will launch.

3) Yes, we do hedge. We use a combination of static and dynamic replication in the interbank and institutional OTC markets. You will not be able to hurt us, our interests are aligned.

4) We are already licenced, have our back office and all technology in place. You will be sent an official invitation to open a real account before the public as one of our valued beta testers.

5) Certainly. If you design a bet type, we will consider offering it (we love the challenge).

6) We are doing the beta in USD but will not accept US customers, it will be UK only to begin and then the rest of Europe after a week or two.

Thank you for your participation.

John Ansbacher
Head Trader

 

[doktrade]

Stig,

It much easy than one expect. First, get free/cheap data. My favorite opentick.com: free real-time data, free historical data, may APIs.
Great API and for example $1/mo for CBOE options data. This if you like US stocks.

To have the FX, you must pay. I have good programming so integrate data. It most easy to crunch numbers in excel.

Example trade from last 30min:

18:47 aud/usd looks at bottom @0.7914 - this trend-based signal, $100 go short 40/60 10 min binary atm
18:48 aud/usd goes more down @0.7912 - more support build with $100 50/50 confidence on 20 min atm
18:50 aud/usd sees sharp reversal @0.7914 - bottom layer risk eval of algorithm puts $500 bet at 3/2 odds atm

The last bet to protect loss of bottom layer build-up if looks probable.
18:57 10 min put is lost @0.7917
19:00 aud/usd @0.7916 -- makes $200 profit
19:08 20 min put is lost @0.7921
Net profit: ~$80

This number only approx as algorithm calculate to nearest decimal.

With combine of dynamical computer power can adjust position in real-time.
Trick is to have good measure of risk. I give that excersize to you and play with numbers

-- doktrader

 

[NotQuiteRandom]

Stig,

It much easy than one expect. First, get free/cheap data. My favorite opentick.com: free real-time data, free historical data, may APIs.
Great API and for example $1/mo for CBOE options data. This if you like US stocks.

To have the FX, you must pay. I have good programming so integrate data. It most easy to crunch numbers in excel.

Example trade from last 30min:

18:47 aud/usd looks at bottom @0.7914 - this trend-based signal, $100 go short 40/60 10 min binary atm
18:48 aud/usd goes more down @0.7912 - more support build with $100 50/50 confidence on 20 min atm
18:50 aud/usd sees sharp reversal @0.7914 - bottom layer risk eval of algorithm puts $500 bet at 3/2 odds atm

The last bet to protect loss of bottom layer build-up if looks probable.
18:57 10 min put is lost @0.7917
19:00 aud/usd @0.7916 -- makes $200 profit
19:08 20 min put is lost @0.7921
Net profit: ~$80

This number only approx as algorithm calculate to nearest decimal.

With combine of dynamical computer power can adjust position in real-time.
Trick is to have good measure of risk. I give that excersize to you and play with numbers

-- doktrader

Hi Doktrader,

Which brokers / bookies do you trade through?

Interesting strategy, how long have you been trading with systems / do you do it full time?

Thanks,

NQR

 

[doktrade]

I do IG a lot. Have consistent results most of time. Then of course my binaries put on betonmarkets.

I have now try new strategies for testing on this new betaexoticbets.com
I have very good results and like interesting interface. Some bets I not understand yet, but look very promising. Today good day but need a lot more bets put on there to test strength of strategy. Will do for a while in confirmation of personal new strategies.
It is very good to see live price and complements my dynamical algorithm.

 

[NotQuiteRandom]

Is it a high frequency system?

Are you trading once a day or once a minute?

NQR

 

[doktrade]

I monitor market for continuous hours to find correct environment.
This based on current volatility measure and observe some trend -- all algorithmic.
Once environment good, i start layer positions and make adjust by layering position every 5-15 min.

 

[upperwest]

Has anyone used HedgeStreet to trade binaries?

They say they are a regulated US exchange?

Cheers.

 

[NotQuiteRandom]

I have, they are ok, not a great product range but pretty good. You must either reside in the US or have a friend there whose name to use for an account though.

If you are an American they are probably your best (legal) bet.

 

[jitasb]

I trade the hourlies and 20 minutes on both ftse and dow. I havn't traded the range bets simply because I prefer to concentrate on the instruments I know rather than confusing myself. But may well trade them in the future.

Ok. Thanks for your reply.

I've just sent you a PM, hope you don't mind.