bhc investment Journal

All the market has proven so far is I have timed the short-term bounce right. I am more ambitious than that -- I want the market to move beyond 1200 by the end of 2008. I believe uncertainty and volatility will emerge once again when prices getting into the 914 and 924 range, approximately.
 
Just a quick note to say that I will be looking to enter a long position with Soybeans. It is pulling back today after last Friday's positive candle. Will update again later.
 
Long position entered @ 1361.5 for SN08. Price actions didn't enter the range I wanted before inching higher. I will buy more if it moves lower.
 
A bubble in commodities? What bubble?

-- There's no bubble in commodities! Whatever the media and mainstream economists are trying to tell you otherwise, don't even believe a single word of what they say! Why? Ask your friends and relatives around you, how many of them have invested in commodities? If there are less than 3 to 5% of them, and potential new traders/investors don't even know how to get themselves started, how can this be a bubble? A bubble is a man-made fiasco, and there's always one very important component in the making of a bubble: the governments. Do you see your government giving you tax incentives and coming out with policies that facilitate the development of hyperinflated prices in commodities? NO! Another attribute of a bubble is that the asset class must also be plentiful. Commodities are scarce!

-- Rice prices have been on the decline for 50 years when adjusted for inflation -- yes, 50! There's no new sizable productive capacity in Crude Oil that has come online. Even if a new gigantic oil field is discovered today, no-one will be able to bring the new oil to market until years later. The list continues...

-- The media and mainstream economists have been telling you a US Dollar story: that the rise in the prices of commodities are inversely related to the greenback. I am anticipating the upcoming phase to be NOT related to the US Dollar. In my view, food prices will continue to go higher even *if* the US Dollar can make a rally! Food prices are largely driven by supply and demand, and they will rise against all currencies!

-- Most of the "solutions" proposed by governments and politicians to solve the present food crisis will not work. In fact, they will make the problem worse. The only solution is to let these prices go up -- that's what prices are for!
 
BHC do you mind me asking why you are addressing the media's claim of a commodities bubble?
 
Hi Jay!

Because I don't think there is one in commodities, and the media's use of the 'bubble' word is wrong. They didn't call it a housing bubble when there was one, and now they are so eager to use the b-word on commodities.

There could be a bubble in commodities oneday, but that could be years away.

Best regards
bhc investment
 
Thanks BHC. I just was not sure if someone had put a post in that I missed or something. The good thing about the media is that they are commonly wrong. I guess it's too hard to be a journalist and track the markets full time, just not enough hours in the day ;)
 
Jay,

-- Agree.

-- Your journal is very interesting. I will spend some time going through it before posting comments/questions. I try not to post questions you have answered before.

-- Who's your hero when it comes to trading/investing?

With best regards
bhc investment
 
Gold.png
 
BHC I have never really had a hero when it comes to trading/investing. I guess one person that stands out in my mind would be Richard Branson though. The reason being that he always appears to be doing what he loves and that is an admirable quality in a person. Someone willing to put it all on the line for what they love. Who is yours BHC?
 
Corn rose to a record for a second day, and soybeans reached a three-month high, as excessive Midwest rains flooded fields, delaying completion of spring planting and increasing the risk of U.S. crop losses.
 
Last edited:
Gold jumped the most in six months after the U.S. jobless rate had the biggest gain in more than two decades, spurring a drop in the dollar.
 
Soybean futures for July delivery rose the exchange limit of 70 cents, or 4.8 percent, to $15.165 a bushel in Chicago. Soybeans are up 83 percent in the past year, reaching a record $15.865 on March 3, on increased global demand for the oilseed.
 
I tried to update this thread as frequent as I can but sometimes I got distracted.

Just want to say that I have entered into a long position with Rough Rice (RRN08) @ 20.148. The position was opened on the 13th but was only reported on my web site. Since the price has now retraced to slightly lower than my entry, I am reporting it here as well.

My positions in Soybeans and Gold remain open.
 
I am also looking to take a position in the Japanese Yen.

There's a potential pivot forming in the Japanese Yen, but I am not very happy with the level at which it is developing. Give it a bit more time and I should know where I would take my position.

The general consensus in the market and projected by the media and mainstream economists is that the USD has made a bottom and there are now concerted actions by other central banks to reflate the USD. There's never a one-way street in the currency market. I see this as a herd mentality.
 
The Yen is pulling back today. Long position entered @ 0.9300 for JYU08. Will consider buying more if prices are to fall even lower.
 
As reported on my web site, I sold 50% of our position in Yen into the strength today at 0.9503. Will work out the average cost later.
 
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