bbmac
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Yeh, and with advanced apologies if this comes across as wordy or complicated..
On the weekly t/f price was not in a strong uptrend-this would have been comprised of a series of HH and HL, but on this t/f, and after the last HL we had seen a LH followwed by a L then a H...so although the H came above the last LH it was not the strongest uptrend per peak/valley analysis. Compare this to the uptrend on this weekly chart that started at the first HL on that screenshot, then a H above the last LH of the previous downtrend then a HL, and a HH, 2nd HL, another HH, then another HL ..this is a strong uptrend....of course then came the LH discussed above.
More generally, I assess the trend on the time frames of interest to me by classic peak/valley analysis, ie a series of HH/HL is an uptrend, a series of LL/LH is a downtrend. Of course it is not always that 'neat' and sometimes, using an uptrend example a t/f can print a L or even LL and then still go on to see a new HH above the last HH of the uptrend. This is what I call a 'general trend' Sometimes it does not and that example in post #315 was a good example...where this is the case I look to ensure that this does not occur on the t/f into whose trend a re-entry after a pullback (timed on the t/f below) but will still go with it if it occurs on this lower t/f upon which a re-entry set-up develops.
G/L
bbmac
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eg
Look at the 1hr t/f from yesterday's 6645 hi, the fisrt L came below the last HL of the previous uptrend, this was significant, the pullback off the L saw a LH and then a LL, so that the next LH that came at the previous swing lo=previous support=potential sbr zone became a hi-probability Re-entry to this t/f trend after the pullback (timed on the t/f's below)
Look at the 1hr t/f from yesterday's 6645 hi, the fisrt L came below the last HL of the previous uptrend, this was significant, the pullback off the L saw a LH and then a LL, so that the next LH that came at the previous swing lo=previous support=potential sbr zone became a hi-probability Re-entry to this t/f trend after the pullback (timed on the t/f's below)
bbmac
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further explanation
I suppose what I am saying is that a Re-entry (to next higher t/f trend after a pullback) using an uptrend example is higher in probability over an extended sample when the Hl followes a pullback from a HH. When it follows a pullback from a H that has breeched the last LH of the previous downtrend this is more risky as an uptrend has not yet been established with an effective LL followed by a H (above last LH of prev downtrend) and a first HL.) Effectively it is the 2nd HL in an uptrend (conversely 2nd LH in a downtrend) that I look for and at the risk of complicating things I would still consider the first HL of an uptrend, given the price action scenario outlined, if there is say a strong data/news reaction, or indeed (in the case of a developing uptrend) where there is strong support at the LL and regular bullish divergence reversal set-ups extending through the t/f's and on the t/f's higher than those that I use for my trading plan.
I suppose what I am saying is that a Re-entry (to next higher t/f trend after a pullback) using an uptrend example is higher in probability over an extended sample when the Hl followes a pullback from a HH. When it follows a pullback from a H that has breeched the last LH of the previous downtrend this is more risky as an uptrend has not yet been established with an effective LL followed by a H (above last LH of prev downtrend) and a first HL.) Effectively it is the 2nd HL in an uptrend (conversely 2nd LH in a downtrend) that I look for and at the risk of complicating things I would still consider the first HL of an uptrend, given the price action scenario outlined, if there is say a strong data/news reaction, or indeed (in the case of a developing uptrend) where there is strong support at the LL and regular bullish divergence reversal set-ups extending through the t/f's and on the t/f's higher than those that I use for my trading plan.
bbmac
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5min eg today
5min on cable now is a good example...price made a LL then a H above last LH of the downtrend, then a first HL followed by a HH and a 2nd HL at the previous swing hi=prev res=potential rbs zone at which point a 1min hidden-divergence based Re-entry (to 5min uptrend after a pullback) set-up developed.
So not the strongest 5min uptrend but the set-up came @ the 2nd HL., and 5min macd was crossed above it's zero axis and 30min was pointing up...Will it achieve anorther HH? I have no idea as onlly took +10 from the set-up as the trade is against the main sentiment so far today and no real follow through/momentum to such a new HH, but it is indicative of the points I was making in posts above.
G/L
5min on cable now is a good example...price made a LL then a H above last LH of the downtrend, then a first HL followed by a HH and a 2nd HL at the previous swing hi=prev res=potential rbs zone at which point a 1min hidden-divergence based Re-entry (to 5min uptrend after a pullback) set-up developed.
So not the strongest 5min uptrend but the set-up came @ the 2nd HL., and 5min macd was crossed above it's zero axis and 30min was pointing up...Will it achieve anorther HH? I have no idea as onlly took +10 from the set-up as the trade is against the main sentiment so far today and no real follow through/momentum to such a new HH, but it is indicative of the points I was making in posts above.
G/L
bbmac
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update to post #325
Update to post #325 above,...well it was messy but price did go higher than the last HH of the 5min uptrend as shown in screenshot above...the HL was followed by a LH then a 3rd HL before a H above that HH shown on that screenshot above.
G/L
Update to post #325 above,...well it was messy but price did go higher than the last HH of the 5min uptrend as shown in screenshot above...the HL was followed by a LH then a 3rd HL before a H above that HH shown on that screenshot above.
G/L
bbmac
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U.s data due 1330pm
3rd qtr U.s Gdp # due in 5mins, I'll be looking to
a. get involved with any momentum created
b. buy first low/sell first pullback hi or conversely sell first high/buy first pullback low
or
c. stay flat
depending on market reaction.
G/L
3rd qtr U.s Gdp # due in 5mins, I'll be looking to
a. get involved with any momentum created
b. buy first low/sell first pullback hi or conversely sell first high/buy first pullback low
or
c. stay flat
depending on market reaction.
G/L
bbmac
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5mins after and no discernable reaction so option c resulted, lol.
bbmac
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Backk to the technicals
The pullback from the 1hr prev sw lo zone/descending pot res t/line and 61.8% 6647-6495 res shown below:
Produced a 5min hidden-divergence based Re-entry (to next higher t/f trend after a pullback) set-up, that set-up coming at a L on 5min coinciding with a HL on 30min into whose upomove (not a trend by peak/valley analysis) the set-up indicated a 'with trend' trading opportunity after the pullback...There was no 1min trigger t/f set-up so had to go in on close of 5min bullish candle and I have just moved stop to b/e and hoping that price will push through the potential resistance (actually have just booked +15 from the set-up as price pushes up to top of that potential sbr/res zone on 1hr,I write this.)
The 5min set-up is here:
The other reason for booking profit is that there wasn't really a 30min uptrend to re-enter per peak/valley analysis and as discussed above and I could not identify the potential rbs at which the set-up developed but as macd signal lines were pointing up on 1hr (and 4hr.)
G/L
The pullback from the 1hr prev sw lo zone/descending pot res t/line and 61.8% 6647-6495 res shown below:
Produced a 5min hidden-divergence based Re-entry (to next higher t/f trend after a pullback) set-up, that set-up coming at a L on 5min coinciding with a HL on 30min into whose upomove (not a trend by peak/valley analysis) the set-up indicated a 'with trend' trading opportunity after the pullback...There was no 1min trigger t/f set-up so had to go in on close of 5min bullish candle and I have just moved stop to b/e and hoping that price will push through the potential resistance (actually have just booked +15 from the set-up as price pushes up to top of that potential sbr/res zone on 1hr,I write this.)
The 5min set-up is here:
The other reason for booking profit is that there wasn't really a 30min uptrend to re-enter per peak/valley analysis and as discussed above and I could not identify the potential rbs at which the set-up developed but as macd signal lines were pointing up on 1hr (and 4hr.)
G/L
bbmac
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Other reason for exiting
You can see the regular immediate bearish divergence set-ups on 1 and supporting 5min that developed at the top of that prev 1hr swing lo = prev supp = potential sbr zone...mni also touting offers there...
the zone was here
and the 1 and 5min reversal set-ups here
I didn't trade this set-up as finishing here the day. (extended session beacuse of u.s data)
G/L
You can see the regular immediate bearish divergence set-ups on 1 and supporting 5min that developed at the top of that prev 1hr swing lo = prev supp = potential sbr zone...mni also touting offers there...
the zone was here
and the 1 and 5min reversal set-ups here
I didn't trade this set-up as finishing here the day. (extended session beacuse of u.s data)
G/L
bbmac
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Re: Weds 25th Nov 09
Another case of buy the rumour-sell the fact as # came in at -0.3% [Q3 Uk Gdp] and onll a small upward revision from -0.4% prev estimate...market dissapointed and sells £ on knee-jerk after being whipped into expecting a -0.1% print or better, lol.
G/L
Another case of buy the rumour-sell the fact as # came in at -0.3% [Q3 Uk Gdp] and onll a small upward revision from -0.4% prev estimate...market dissapointed and sells £ on knee-jerk after being whipped into expecting a -0.1% print or better, lol.
G/L
bbmac
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with volatilty comes opportunity
Price reacts to dissapointingly small upward revision to Uk Q3 Gdp # and sells £ down to the previous 1hr sw hi=prev res=potential rbs zone (also a minor prev sw hi on 4hr) and the 23.6% of the 6495-6726 (today's current Hi) move...
at which point a 5min Hidden-divergence based Re-entry set-up (to next higher t/f trend after a pullback) develops:
and the entry is timed on the lower 1min trigger t/f as a repeating reversal set-up;
The 5min set-up came @ a L, this co-existing with a HLposition on the 30min into whose uptrend the Re-entry set-up indicated a hi-probability trading opp to get ' with trend. ' Have already booked profit, not waiting to see a ' with 30min+ trend follow thru to a new HH on that t/f, it may happen, it may not, but just aware of the reaction to the data.
G/L
Price reacts to dissapointingly small upward revision to Uk Q3 Gdp # and sells £ down to the previous 1hr sw hi=prev res=potential rbs zone (also a minor prev sw hi on 4hr) and the 23.6% of the 6495-6726 (today's current Hi) move...
at which point a 5min Hidden-divergence based Re-entry set-up (to next higher t/f trend after a pullback) develops:
and the entry is timed on the lower 1min trigger t/f as a repeating reversal set-up;
The 5min set-up came @ a L, this co-existing with a HLposition on the 30min into whose uptrend the Re-entry set-up indicated a hi-probability trading opp to get ' with trend. ' Have already booked profit, not waiting to see a ' with 30min+ trend follow thru to a new HH on that t/f, it may happen, it may not, but just aware of the reaction to the data.
G/L
bbmac
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1hr/4hr
1hr is in an uptrend, 4hr has broken the last LH of it's previous downtrend after a HL. Macd signal line is currently flat on 1hr, pointing up on 4hr/daily. The post data dip found support at that 23.6% of the 6494-6726 and that was also the 200hr sma.
G/L
1hr is in an uptrend, 4hr has broken the last LH of it's previous downtrend after a HL. Macd signal line is currently flat on 1hr, pointing up on 4hr/daily. The post data dip found support at that 23.6% of the 6494-6726 and that was also the 200hr sma.
G/L
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running into supply again at current daily Hi zone
Price runs into the prev 1hr sw hi zone created around today's current i/day hi and again finds supply with the same 1min Reversal set-up that indicated the post data dip buy described in a post above, setting-up again to indicate the short at the potential res zone
G/L
Price runs into the prev 1hr sw hi zone created around today's current i/day hi and again finds supply with the same 1min Reversal set-up that indicated the post data dip buy described in a post above, setting-up again to indicate the short at the potential res zone
G/L
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more supply
Price reaches 97% of it's 20day average pip range in the L-H run-up today and 'stronger offers 6745/50 say mni, just shy of a previous 1hr swing hi=prev res=potential res zone...at which point another 1min Reversal set-up develops (same set-up as has occurred twice more in the run up today examples of which are in the posts above.) A supporting 5min and 15min regular bearish divergence based reversal set-ups supported a hi-probability against trend selling opportunity...they are shown below;
the 1min Rev Extr ii set-up supported by
and
G/L
Price reaches 97% of it's 20day average pip range in the L-H run-up today and 'stronger offers 6745/50 say mni, just shy of a previous 1hr swing hi=prev res=potential res zone...at which point another 1min Reversal set-up develops (same set-up as has occurred twice more in the run up today examples of which are in the posts above.) A supporting 5min and 15min regular bearish divergence based reversal set-ups supported a hi-probability against trend selling opportunity...they are shown below;
the 1min Rev Extr ii set-up supported by
and
G/L
Few comments and maybe subsequent questions to your posts which I must say have been highly informative.
1) divergence, be it classic or hidden is usually taken with established trend. Entry is on lower tf to the tf of the established trend
2)If a LL or V forms near a level with divergence then trades can be taken without an established trend.
3) reversal trades with divergence only to be taken at levels
is this correct?
Also, when do you know a HL is formed or a lower high? is this once a high (low) is broken to form a HH (LL)? as in post 325, where the first HL could easily have formed a lower high? or because we had a H which took out a LH and thus there is more chance of HL forming next than a LH?
In post 326, the highest high is labelled as a H and not HH, whyis this? The fact we took out a HH means we have now formed a second HH? or is it because we formed a LH in that segment of the trend?
Sorry if this all sounds convoluted but its something that greatly interests me and your take of price action is very close to how I trade myself...
1) divergence, be it classic or hidden is usually taken with established trend. Entry is on lower tf to the tf of the established trend
2)If a LL or V forms near a level with divergence then trades can be taken without an established trend.
3) reversal trades with divergence only to be taken at levels
is this correct?
Also, when do you know a HL is formed or a lower high? is this once a high (low) is broken to form a HH (LL)? as in post 325, where the first HL could easily have formed a lower high? or because we had a H which took out a LH and thus there is more chance of HL forming next than a LH?
In post 326, the highest high is labelled as a H and not HH, whyis this? The fact we took out a HH means we have now formed a second HH? or is it because we formed a LH in that segment of the trend?
Sorry if this all sounds convoluted but its something that greatly interests me and your take of price action is very close to how I trade myself...
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re questions
A few questions here, I'll do my best to answer them in the order you raise them, below;
1. Regular (classic) or hidden divergence can be a useful too at areas of potential support/resistance -and- potential sbr/rbs respectively and can be against the trend on the next higher t/f (+) -and- with the trend on the next higher t/f (=) after a pullback to potential sbr/rbs on that next higher t/f.
2. Regular divergence set-ups can occur at aHL, H, HH, LH, L or LL on the next higher t/f, and this can occur against a trend present on the next higher t/f (+) -or- indeed in ranging conditions on the next higher t/f (+) If for example there was a trend present to the 1hr t/f and regular div only on 1min that would suggest a very shallow pullback only,,..howevere if that 1min regualr div set-up was supported by regualr div on 5min and 15min, that would suggest a deeper pullback at least...so the rule of thumb if couter-trend trading is to look for supporting regualr diverence/osc extremes on t/f's above that of your trigger t/f, particualrly if against a trend present on t/f's above that that the highest t/f reg div/osc extremes exists upon. Ensure too that there is potential supp/res factors at the place the reg div/osc extremes develop.
3. Yes, I only trade regular divergence/oscillator extreme based reversal set-ups (against next highert t/f [+] trend or ranging conditions) @ pre-identified potential support/resistance.)
I'm not sure I understand the final question you ask, but as general info, I look for fractal swing lo/hi's on the respective t/f, ie a candle where at least the candles immediately straddling it either side are higher /lower lows and for a fractal swing Lo/Hi respectively...the more pronounced the fractal swing the bigger the imbalance of demand/supply -or- supply/demand respectively. A HL follows a L or HL, a H follows a LH, a HH follows a H, a LH follows a H or a LH, a L follows a HL, a LL follows a L.
If a HH is succeeded by a H it is because there is a LH below the said HH before it was succeeded...the new H being higher than the last HH. A HH succeeded by a new HH can do so from a HL,L or LL so long as there is no fractal LH after it.
In looking to re-enter a trend you have to do so on the t/f below that the trend exists upon, and then look where the hidden divergence set-up develops @ on that and the higher t/f upon which the trend exists. Ie using an uptrend eg, a HL/HL would be perfect respectively but sometimes you may see a L/HL...the most important is that the HL exists upon the t/f where the trend exists.
A few questions here, I'll do my best to answer them in the order you raise them, below;
1. Regular (classic) or hidden divergence can be a useful too at areas of potential support/resistance -and- potential sbr/rbs respectively and can be against the trend on the next higher t/f (+) -and- with the trend on the next higher t/f (=) after a pullback to potential sbr/rbs on that next higher t/f.
2. Regular divergence set-ups can occur at aHL, H, HH, LH, L or LL on the next higher t/f, and this can occur against a trend present on the next higher t/f (+) -or- indeed in ranging conditions on the next higher t/f (+) If for example there was a trend present to the 1hr t/f and regular div only on 1min that would suggest a very shallow pullback only,,..howevere if that 1min regualr div set-up was supported by regualr div on 5min and 15min, that would suggest a deeper pullback at least...so the rule of thumb if couter-trend trading is to look for supporting regualr diverence/osc extremes on t/f's above that of your trigger t/f, particualrly if against a trend present on t/f's above that that the highest t/f reg div/osc extremes exists upon. Ensure too that there is potential supp/res factors at the place the reg div/osc extremes develop.
3. Yes, I only trade regular divergence/oscillator extreme based reversal set-ups (against next highert t/f [+] trend or ranging conditions) @ pre-identified potential support/resistance.)
I'm not sure I understand the final question you ask, but as general info, I look for fractal swing lo/hi's on the respective t/f, ie a candle where at least the candles immediately straddling it either side are higher /lower lows and for a fractal swing Lo/Hi respectively...the more pronounced the fractal swing the bigger the imbalance of demand/supply -or- supply/demand respectively. A HL follows a L or HL, a H follows a LH, a HH follows a H, a LH follows a H or a LH, a L follows a HL, a LL follows a L.
If a HH is succeeded by a H it is because there is a LH below the said HH before it was succeeded...the new H being higher than the last HH. A HH succeeded by a new HH can do so from a HL,L or LL so long as there is no fractal LH after it.
In looking to re-enter a trend you have to do so on the t/f below that the trend exists upon, and then look where the hidden divergence set-up develops @ on that and the higher t/f upon which the trend exists. Ie using an uptrend eg, a HL/HL would be perfect respectively but sometimes you may see a L/HL...the most important is that the HL exists upon the t/f where the trend exists.
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