Averaging.

Personally I think it's important to get away putting too much emphasis on what your entry price was. This is difficult psycholigically but I think it is important.

If you are buy 1 lot when the price is 65 and the market falls to 45 the facts are simply that you are long 1 lot and the price is 45, it doesn't matter where you entered. If you buy another contract all that matters is you are long 2 lots and the price is 45. The fact that your average price is 55 is irrelevant.

So if you bought at 65 and now it's 45 should you buy another one? Why would you? If you still think it is going up then hold your long. If you don't get out. The only reason to buy another one is if you think the market is now more likely to go up than you thought it was originally or provides better risk/reward. ie you now want to be 2 long with the price at 45. However if you thought 65 was a good entry and now the price is 45 it is very unlikely that you now genuinely think the conditions have improved.

Of course if you are uncertain of your exact entry point then it can often be a good idea to put your position on over a number of prices so your position is bigger at better prices but you still have a position if it doesn't reach them but this should be pre-planned and isn't really averaging.

There is also nothing wrong with having 2 seperate trades on at the same time but again you have to be sure you are being disciplined with regards to your reasons for the second trade.

The problem though is that we're human and our hopes, fears and emotions can often get in the way of our ability to make the right decisions.
 
The problem though is that we're human and our hopes, fears and emotions can often get in the way of our ability to make the right decisions.

Also, some people make sure this happens all the time, I mean the media reporters and some "analysts". IMO if someone wants to really trade he or she must turn off the TV and stop surfing the internet except visiting the T2W forums for some big truths:)
 
Who said that they always throw a few into the market initially just to see which way the wind is blowing, i'm sure it was Buffet? I wonder if Buffet is a secret martingaler?:)



By the way, i wasn't in Thailand last week, wish i was though.

I thought you had a Thai flag by your name the other week, must have been someone else.... I'll give my mate Warren a call and ask him about the other matter ;)

Sam.
 
If you look at the markets in terms of funds, commercials and institutions these guys have got to be averaging, up and down, there's just no other way to move size around??
 
If you look at the markets in terms of funds, commercials and institutions these guys have got to be averaging, up and down, there's just no other way to move size around??

Big fish in a small pond gets it all no !:)
 
Would that really count as averaging though? I guess there's a grey area between blatantly putting on an extra trade simply to improve the average price and putting a position on over more than one price.
 
I'm only surmising...I don't actually do any of this stuff...but i'd like to bet a system could be worked out given enough thought.
 
Would that really count as averaging though? I guess there's a grey area between blatantly putting on an extra trade simply to improve the average price and putting a position on over more than one price.




Yes, definately. Averaging still needs some kind of validation or boundaries.
 
Sorry Paul, I'm being thick. I don't really understand your reply. Would you mind elaborating?




No probs. What i meant was that there has still got be a point for negating the reason, when to call it a day with the set-up, when to stop.
 
No probs. What i meant was that there has still got be a point for negating the reason, when to call it a day with the set-up, when to stop.

You mean they were putting on a big position but before they were done the trade was too far against them to carry on and they had to get the whole lot out? Whether we define that as averaging or not I think it's safe to call that taking one up the ****.
 
My take on this is that some of the best traders I know average - both when a position is going for them and against them. As far as averaging a losing position goes, they are not averaging out of pure desperation: you can think of it as "working an area" in order to avoice squeezes and get a better "average" price if you are still confident that the reasons for the trade stand. There is a big difference between this and averaging your ar*e off because you are scared to take a loser and think that the price HAS to come back. Anyway, I would personally never average. I only pyramid.
 
TD, I am sure I read somewhere a while back that you were buying oil and averaging down 'aggressively'.... Or was that a joke?

Sam.
 
If conditions are right tomorrow (today I suppose... up in 4 hours) I will write up an averaging journal and post it after I finish for the day. You will find it extremely boring but that is a usual in markets where averaging is appropriate...
 
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