monktrader
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What is the average length of a bullmarket again ? It's said to be 3 years I think but just wondering if someone had hard numbers from some serious study on the subject. Thanks
average length of bullmarket
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dc2000
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Stands in amazement!
Hi Monktrader
I presume we are talking about the US here in particular the Dow. If you take the data from the early 1930s then yes the average is 3 years however since the early 1990s this is not the case, particularly in the bull run to 1999.
what you have to decide is are we in a corrective phase of a down trend or at the start of an impulsive phase of an uptrend
Hi Monktrader
I presume we are talking about the US here in particular the Dow. If you take the data from the early 1930s then yes the average is 3 years however since the early 1990s this is not the case, particularly in the bull run to 1999.
what you have to decide is are we in a corrective phase of a down trend or at the start of an impulsive phase of an uptrend
I did some work on this a few years ago (from various sources incl www.nber.org - see their business cycle dating stuff).
Based on US economic cycles from 1854 to 2001.
Ave bust (economic contraction) was 18months
Ave Boom (economic growth) was 35months
Post the 2nd WW the Ave bust had shortened to 11m and the boom lengthenned to 50m.
The stock market tends to lead the economic cycles by 3 to 6 months (but can be 1m to 9m).
Based on US economic cycles from 1854 to 2001.
Ave bust (economic contraction) was 18months
Ave Boom (economic growth) was 35months
Post the 2nd WW the Ave bust had shortened to 11m and the boom lengthenned to 50m.
The stock market tends to lead the economic cycles by 3 to 6 months (but can be 1m to 9m).
dbphoenix said:
The consumer just responded as expected to the Fed manipulation. The reverse will be true as the Fed takes it back.
To me, the charts look ugly with negative divergences. However, these type of charts in November and December don't have the same bearish implications (statistically) compared to the rest of the year...probably due seasonal forces. What is it in the charts that is of interest to you?
JTrader
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Hi
I'm obsessed with timeframes at the moment.................
I presume that you are referring to a daily timeframe. However, the EOD charts might show that the market is a bull, whereas shorter timeframes might show the opposite. The long term daily trend might be up, but shorter timeframes may be showing weakness......................
jtrader.
dbphoenix said:
Sure. Just like late 2003/early 2004 and late 2004/early 2005. Price is obviously the most important element but as you know continuation of price trend may be likely, suspect or improbable depending on the setting. We will obviously know more when both seasonal strength ends and support gets tested.
dbphoenix
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Don't know what your point is regarding previous highs. Higher highs are characteristic of trends. Since the trend is continuing, the question of the likeliness of continuation is moot. As for knowing more, I don't understand what it is you want to know and why you want to know it. I assume you're not interested in entering here.
dbphoenix said:
I was just responding to your point about highs. I tried to explain that higher highs does not necessarily have a bullish/continuation meaning.
I don't accept your premise that the likeliness of trend continuation is moot. It is very relevant to me. Recently, I sold my long positions (after buying the end stage downtrend last month). Among other things, I very frequently short uptrends and buy downtrends but require that certain conditions are met. Currently, some but not all conditions are met so I am in cash.
I wanted to know was what you saw in the charts so I could take that into consideration. I was already aware of the current trend.
dbphoenix said:
I'd like to explain why likeliness of trend change is important to me. I can profitably predict trend reversal from a swing trade point of view over 75% of the time if the circumstances are right. I often but not always enter BEFORE price reverses. Given the current and infrequent constellation of findings, the winning percentage of shorting now is lower than usual and therefore not worth taking the risk to me. Since I don't have a good feel for the market now given the cross-currents and you are bullish (and I know you know what you are talking about), I wanted to know the details about why? I suspect that it is more than higher highs. If so, I'd like to learn something.
dbphoenix
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We seem to getting way off topic here. If there's some other thread where all this would be of interest, I can post there.
But, in the meantime, the subject of whether or not there will be continuation is moot because the trend is continuing. Higher highs are by definition a continuation. If you can predict reversals with >75% accuracy, then congratulations.
As for being bullish, I'm never bullish or bearish. I just do what the market tells me to do. If it's going up, I'm long. If it's going down, I'm short. I have no bias. Don't care.
Last post, on this particular thread anyway.
But, in the meantime, the subject of whether or not there will be continuation is moot because the trend is continuing. Higher highs are by definition a continuation. If you can predict reversals with >75% accuracy, then congratulations.
As for being bullish, I'm never bullish or bearish. I just do what the market tells me to do. If it's going up, I'm long. If it's going down, I'm short. I have no bias. Don't care.
Last post, on this particular thread anyway.
dbphoenix said:
Regarding topic, I just attempted to ask you a question about what the market was "telling you to do" and later attempted to respond to you, obviously not to your satisfaction.
I have read your stuff on and off for 7 years. I have learned a lot from you and you have learned nothing from me (though I have made no attempt to teach). I understand and accept that the topic of "continuation" is moot for you. However, the statistical determination of continuation can be optimised and updated for entry, exit, percentage wins and percentage gains/trade. Since I have used this knowledge to make money long and short for a few years now, I don't think "moot" is an appropriate way to describe it (at least not for me).
I know this post is imperfect from an "on topic" point of view. Given the magnitude of my other imperfections, I can easily accept this small sin.
