Are we all just gambling?

[jkplay]

Is trading gambling, anymore than any other activity where a decision has to be made?

Everything we do that is based on a decision is a gamble, surely? I think it is, anyway. From the time I started my chosen career, I was taking a chance on my ability to get ahead. Aren't we all?

The same when we get married. Making a decision depending on the welfare of a wife and kids can be a worrying process.

Some would not include these examples as gambling and would rather say that they are taking a calculated decision after weighing up all the pros and cons. Ok, that's what I do with my trading.

When an opportunity appears there are two choices. Take it or leave it. All the Captains of Industry have done that, but there are a lot of would-have-beens who, also, took those opportunities and failed. We don't hear about them.

Split

Yeah I totally agree with you.

But to make a living by taking or leaving opportunities with no definite outcome would mean you gamble alot more than the normal slave.

Somebody mentioned that you gamble every time you cross a road. Most people would go to a pelican or zebra crossing if there was heavy traffic but a trader/risk taker would be running across when he spots a slight gap in the traffic...

To be successful in life and get where you want to be as quickly as possible you need to take risks, you need to gamble.

There is nothing wrong with gambling and I think that it's clear to see trading = gambling despite how confident you are when entering into a trade and how much success you have.

JK

 

[yacarob1]

So are you a Christian gambler?

My wife is a committed Catholic.

Don't tell her but I think religion is all hocus pocus.

My God is Betfair.

But don't tell the Sudanese that.

 

[laptop1]

My wife is a committed Catholic.

Don't tell her but I think religion is all hocus pocus.

My God is Betfair.

But don't tell the Sudanese that.

Then you don’t have a belief in anything.

 

[Snownation]

So does your wife support you and your trading?

 

[the blades]

Then you don’t have a belief in anything.

but does that really matter?

UTB

 

[laptop1]

but does that really matter?

UTB

Only you could answer that. Not others.

 

[damianoakley]

Is Trading Gambling?

Hi All,

I would say that the process of trading is not too dis-similar from gambling - after all, there is some overlap between the two in that you can spread-BET on the financial markets. Both betting and trading involve risk of money based on a judgement of a future event, whether that event be an upward price move in Vodafone or the winning result of a football game.

If you have a read through the website www.professionalgambler.com (I have no affiliation with this site), the guy on there talks about risking 1-2% of his capital and achieving a strike-rate of 55% in much the same way as we would discuss these matters in trading. The author of this particular website does not see his activities as gambling - he runs his activities like a business.

And so it is the same with trading - if you are risking 25% of your capital on your next trade, then you are a gambler with a high risk of ruin, but if you are risking 1-3% of your capital then you are running your operation like a business that is still likely to be around in 12 months time....


Thanks

Damian

 

[Splitlink]

Hi All,

I would say that the process of trading is not too dis-similar from gambling - after all, there is some overlap between the two in that you can spread-BET on the financial markets. Both betting and trading involve risk of money based on a judgement of a future event, whether that event be an upward price move in Vodafone or the winning result of a football game.

If you have a read through the website www.professionalgambler.com (I have no affiliation with this site), the guy on there talks about risking 1-2% of his capital and achieving a strike-rate of 55% in much the same way as we would discuss these matters in trading. The author of this particular website does not see his activities as gambling - he runs his activities like a business.

And so it is the same with trading - if you are risking 25% of your capital on your next trade, then you are a gambler with a high risk of ruin, but if you are risking 1-3% of your capital then you are running your operation like a business that is still likely to be around in 12 months time....


Thanks

Damian

Exactly, and how many commercial businesses can say that they only risk 3% of their capital. In fact, how many housebuyers have seen their property deteriate in value, over the last few months, by a lot more than 3%?

I think that trading carries the same stigma that acting careers carried, for women, in the 19th century. One's parents would rather that we earned our money in a more savoury manner.
Split

 

[yacarob1]

Then you don’t have a belief in anything.

An unshakeable belief in ones-self is all that is important especially in the field of trading.

 

[damianoakley]

I think that trading carries the same stigma that acting careers carried, for women, in the 19th century. One's parents would rather that we earned our money in a more savoury manner.
Split

I think it is true that there can be a stigma attached to certain professions that don't follow the safe tried-and-tested secure path of a 9-5.

When I told everyone that I was going to trade the Stock Market, everyone told me I was nuts and that they'd "never do that because the financial markets are so risky and unpredictable." I find it amazing how the average person can see financial trading as being risky and yet can see fit to borrow sums of money against their home to start a self-employed business.......both activities are a gamble if not operated correctly.

In trading and in life, we are probably all professional gamblers, but if you were at a Christmas party and were asked what you do for a living and you said that you were a professional gambler, people would either not believe you or just think you were crazy. If you said you were a Professional Stock Market Trader, it would be much better accepted by the people at that party, but most would still be sceptical. But if you said that you were an Investment Manager, everyone would think you were amazing.

People's perceptions can cast a negative light on certain professions, even if those pursuits prove successful for the individual concerned.



Thanks

Damian

 

[black bear]

Are we all just gambling ?

Many bad players will not improve because they cannot bear self-knowledge.....
The bad player will not deign to determine what he thinks by watcing what he does.

To do so might......

reveal a need to be abused (in calling what must be a superior hand)

A need to be loved (in staying in for that one magic card)

A need to have Daddy relent (in trying to bluff out the obvious best hand)

et cetera...

Its not easy to face that, rather than playing cards in spite of our losses, we are playing cards because of them.

David Mamet


"Things I have leared Playing Poker on the Hill" (1986)

I think we are, it is normal, Life = Risk.

Traders are just one group that are aware Life = Risk and get on with it, embrace it in fact.

trade well all and stop gambling you"ll only end up in the poor house

Just sold the ftse at last weeks high, thought it was worth a punt hope you caught it Split, catch you later.


Andy

 

[Splitlink]

Many bad players will not improve because they cannot bear self-knowledge.....
The bad player will not deign to determine what he thinks by watcing what he does.

To do so might......

reveal a need to be abused (in calling what must be a superior hand)

A need to be loved (in staying in for that one magic card)

A need to have Daddy relent (in trying to bluff out the obvious best hand)

et cetera...

Its not easy to face that, rather than playing cards in spite of our losses, we are playing cards because of them.

David Mamet


"Things I have leared Playing Poker on the Hill" (1986)

I think we are, it is normal, Life = Risk.

Traders are just one group that are aware Life = Risk and get on with it, embrace it in fact.

trade well all and stop gambling you"ll only end up in the poor house

Just sold the ftse at last weeks high, thought it was worth a punt hope you caught it Split, catch you later.


Andy

It was a pin on my time scale. Can't use hourly, yet. The worrier in me can't take the stops. I shorted on the 15' pin and am now long on the bottom pin. I don't know if they come up to the standards of the students on this thread. But they seemed to go with my R/S lines.

 

[BSD]

Difference between gambling and speculating is defined by outcomes:

Gambling: Betting money in ventures where the odds are against you no matter what you do, where you will always be a net loser over time, eg roulette, craps, slots or keno.

Speculating: Betting money in ventures where the odds are in your favour if you do your homework, where you will, over time, be a net winner, eg trading, playing poker, opening a Casino or starting an insurance firm.

 

[Splitlink]

Difference between gambling and speculating is defined by outcomes:

Gambling: Betting money in ventures where the odds are against you no matter what you do, where you will always be a net loser over time, eg roulette, craps, slots or keno.

Speculating: Betting money in ventures where the odds are in your favour if you do your homework, where you will, over time, be a net winner, eg trading, playing poker, opening a Casino or starting an insurance firm.

Any newcomers should take note that trading falls into the "gambling" category, when the trader increases his stakes, consistently with the amount won, so as to get a decent pot as quickly as possible. Trading like that is like throwing a dice, no matter how good you are, it will go against you sooner or later.

I mention this because I knew someone who did that. He was a modest trader and gave it up because he came to the conclusion that trading was a mug's game. Actually, the mug was him and he is bettor out of it.

Split

 

[BSD]

Very much agree with that Split

 

[Snownation]

Difference between gambling and speculating is defined by outcomes:

Gambling: Betting money in ventures where the odds are against you no matter what you do, where you will always be a net loser over time, eg roulette, craps, slots or keno.

Speculating: Betting money in ventures where the odds are in your favour if you do your homework, where you will, over time, be a net winner, eg trading, playing poker, opening a Casino or starting an insurance firm.

I wouldn't completely agree with that.

Horseracing requires some knowledge to bet on the right horse. Only when you've done you're homework, and know which horse is "better" or faster, will you only bet on it.

Same goes with poker. Being able to call the bluff, or know your opponents is the same as doing your homework. The more you research into things, the less the odds are against you. The better you are at the game, the least chance you will lose all your money.

Blind gambling would be in the form of the Lottery, or pure chance luck draws where the outcome does not depend on the skill you possess. There's no skill in writing out which lottery numbers which might win.

Skilled gambling is things like horseracing or football results. It still falls into the category of gambling though.

 

[nine]

It's in the why not the how:
Gambling is primarily for the thrill.
Trading is primarily to make money.

The different why's then result in different behaviours etc. Traders won't participate if they can't develop a statistically valid edge so roulette with a straight wheel is out. Traders are more likely to plan and execute in a business like manner (although that can be part of the game for some degenerate gamblers).

 

[yacarob1]

Skilled gambling is things like horseracing or football results.

Betting on horses is not dissimilar from trading.

You should have a system or strategy and, once proven, you stick to it rigidly.

You should also have a proper staking system with money and risk management rules attached.

Provided you have a workable system and do not take wild punts you should not go far wrong.

Same with trading I would say.

 

[BSD]

Horseracing requires some knowledge to bet on the right horse. Only when you've done you're homework, and know which horse is "better" or faster, will you only bet on it.

Same goes with poker. Being able to call the bluff, or know your opponents is the same as doing your homework. The more you research into things, the less the odds are against you. The better you are at the game, the least chance you will lose all your money.

Agree there, that's why I wouldn't call horse racing or poker gambling as per my definition above, because unlike with most casino games the odds are not against you, and you can be net profitable, see "Making millions betting on horses"

If you can beat it and be net profitable in the long run you're speculating, if your success is down to nothing but luck, and you'll always be a net loser over time, you're gambling. That's at least the way I make the distinction.

Good points, nine and yacarob.

 

[black bear]

Good post nine

It's in the why not the how:
Gambling is primarily for the thrill.
Trading is primarily to make money.

The different why's then result in different behaviours etc. Traders won't participate if they can't develop a statistically valid edge so roulette with a straight wheel is out. Traders are more likely to plan and execute in a business like manner (although that can be part of the game for some degenerate gamblers).

Hi Nine

Good post nine, I would add a gambler just can not help himself, he or she just has to call just in case regardless of the odds

If you recognise that in yourself GET OUT and stay out unless its for fun

sorry to transport from the other thread




"Some people lose their heads cold sober.

Cards, dice, pool; it makes no difference. You want to be a winner,you got to keep your head.

And you got to remember that there"s a loser somewhere in you, whining at you.

You have got to learn to cut that losers water off"


Bert
in Walter Tevis

The Hustler(1959



Andy