Apple.. a rising firework?

advfntrader said:
but why has the price behaved differently now from ANY time in AAPLs history. we are 37% up year to date...in 7 weeks. its too far too fast. its never behaved like this before.

should we just throw TA, average true range, Pivots, fibs out of the window and BUY BUY BUY ????
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Have you looked at a long term chart? I've attached one for you, as you can clearly see that it has behaved like this in the past with much larger moves in shorter periods. The price action will tell you when to sell, until then, if you are in it just follow your trading plan.
 

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isatrader said:
Have you looked at a long term chart? I've attached one for you, as you can clearly see that it has behaved like this in the past with much larger moves in shorter periods. The price action will tell you when to sell, until then, if you are in it just follow your trading plan.
Click to expand...


Looking at the chart you have put up I would say that the two time in the last 25 years that aapl behaved like this (price action) the price came "crashing" down.
 
hwsteele said:
Looking at the chart you have put up I would say that the two time in the last 25 years that aapl behaved like this (price action) the price came "crashing" down.
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I don't disagree with that, it has always had a large correction following the parabolic moves, everything does. I merely meant that his statement was wrong as it's been much more over extended than this in the past as currently it's only 25% above it's 30 week moving average (which the method I use focuses on), whereas, three times in the last 15 years it's got as far as 54% above it's 30 week moving average and on numerous occasions has been this far above it. So my point was that he hadn't done his due diligence.

Attached is the chart showing the percentage distance that Apple has been above or below it's 30 week moving average since 1992.
 

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err...how's the Apple shorts going?
Trend up is too strong. Trying to call a top or short the beast is an account killer. Witness deadbroke's trades on S&P and crude oil.

Peter
 
very good point Wackypete2.. and many a fool on wall street will try this and get themeslves into a horrible martingale nightmare situation. Some folk will be doubling down as we speak! and then again... and again
 
Charts, shmarts. As usual, no mention of fundamentals...;) What I think is interesting is that so far the price move is supported by earnings upgrades, that pushes the risks further out as Apple will have to hit revised numbers to maintain the share price here, but that's not a near term risk. But critically there's been no real multiples expansion. The top in Apple will come when the share price starts to outpace earnings upgrades, but I don't think we're there yet.
 
Forest Gump must be super rich these days... he was in this stock in the early nineties

Financial Markets really are like a box of chocolates
 
Joking apart, Prince Alwaleed (Saudi Arabian Kingdom holding company) entered this stock @ 95 US$ many years ago.....:LOL:

I believe he is happy man these days, in despite of his investments in Citibank....(n)

How the English say, it swings and roundabouts......
 
Alot of apple's products conflict with each other, i cant see the point in an ipod when an iphone does it all and call's people.
 
Jesus Christ. A top must be in.

Yesterday it was JP Morgan suggesting the iPhone 5 will add 0.5% to US GDP, and now I just saw Bloomberg asking whether the same phone should run for President.

Good Lord.
 
is interesting to see this conflict of technical vs fundamental analysis in the opinions of posters. a graph can tell you a lot, but walking into a store and seeing empty shelves can also tell you a lot more about that firms long term viability. So if we use simple logic here, such as is the whole world engulfed in apple mainia? Do their product launches resemble the unveiling of a new sports star at a club? Do 50% of people you know rave about their products? You can kind of guess the rest. From a pure basics persepctive I think the comments about 14 PE ratio taking 14 years to pay back were pretty weak. Apple has huge cash mountanins and other assets. If they stop trading tomorrow you'd still get a good chunk of your investment back. Therefore the real PE ratio is actually lower (when using it is a comparison to other stocks) as the part of the share price that needs to be reimbursed with future earnings is smaller. I agree with a lot of the analyst opinions on this stock having the potential to rise further, and also with the poster that pointed out it would take a fundamental change to their status quo position at the top of the tech world to burst this "bubble".....
 
Pferd said:
It is really difficult to say, I am not a big Apple fan myself, in fact I really don't like their products in despite of being now in my 3rd iPhone.

But we have to recognize they seem to find out very quickly what the market wants and that gives them an edge.

Their next bet will be selling the Apple TV. If it is successful as the iPhone or the iPad I see the share price getting to 1000 US$ in the next 24 months.

If for whatever reason they fail, yes, there is only one way now for them and it is down.

Let´s see. But for the inmediate future the outlook is positive. Share price should get to 600 US$ without too much trouble.
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I should have said 700,- US$......:smart:
 
ben707 said:
is interesting to see this conflict of technical vs fundamental analysis in the opinions of posters. a graph can tell you a lot, but walking into a store and seeing empty shelves can also tell you a lot more about that firms long term viability. So if we use simple logic here, such as is the whole world engulfed in apple mainia? Do their product launches resemble the unveiling of a new sports star at a club? Do 50% of people you know rave about their products? You can kind of guess the rest. From a pure basics persepctive I think the comments about 14 PE ratio taking 14 years to pay back were pretty weak. Apple has huge cash mountanins and other assets. If they stop trading tomorrow you'd still get a good chunk of your investment back. Therefore the real PE ratio is actually lower (when using it is a comparison to other stocks) as the part of the share price that needs to be reimbursed with future earnings is smaller. I agree with a lot of the analyst opinions on this stock having the potential to rise further, and also with the poster that pointed out it would take a fundamental change to their status quo position at the top of the tech world to burst this "bubble".....
Click to expand...

Inditex (Zara) is a similar case, the Spanish stock exchange keeps going down and Inditex going up. They know what the market wants and how to do it very fast. It does not matter what the graphics say or what we think about the quality of their products, it just keep going up.
 
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