Anyone trade purely based on news only ?

[sccz97]

Yes, a nice move. What's tb?

trade balance ... used to be a good un .. but recently it's been ****e so I've kinda struck that off my list. The best news ot trade imo are the cad figures. Always out of line and if you're lucky enough to have access to gbpcad or eurcad, you're in for some serious moves and serious $$$

 

[Baruch]

Thank you. I will try that. Why not usd/cad? What are the most important CAD-numbers?

 

[sccz97]

Thank you. I will try that. Why not usd/cad? What are the most important CAD-numbers?

usdcad doens't move as much ... the pip value on gbpcad is much higher and relative to the spread you have to pay, it's better to trade gbpcad. Also you're not afected by stupid dollar moves (whihc i guess can work in your favour as well 50% of the time) but i'd rather ride a move that is pure.

Best cad figures to trade are the usual bunch (again listed in priority):
employment
tb (international merchandise trade)
retails
cpi
pmi

word of warning .. cad figures has a tendecy to retrace back to entry (this may or may not be a good time to trade) .. as always .. the best time to trade is just before the move for 100% risk fee profit

 

[Baruch]

usdcad doens't move as much ... the pip value on gbpcad is much higher and relative to the spread you have to pay, it's better to trade gbpcad. Also you're not afected by stupid dollar moves (whihc i guess can work in your favour as well 50% of the time) but i'd rather ride a move that is pure.

Best cad figures to trade are the usual bunch (again listed in priority):
employment
tb (international merchandise trade)
retails
cpi
pmi

word of warning .. cad figures has a tendecy to retrace back to entry (this may or may not be a good time to trade) .. as always .. the best time to trade is just before the move for 100% risk fee profit

Thank you. Nice to know. I can see we had a nice move in GBP/CAD this morning like in the other pairs because of the UK numbers. We have some house numbers in CAD this week. Important? Or International Trade Friday?
PS. Wow! My broker has a 8 pips spread. Too much?

 

[sccz97]

Thank you. Nice to know. I can see we had a nice move in GBP/CAD this morning like in the other pairs because of the UK numbers. We have some house numbers in CAD this week. Important? Or International Trade Friday?
PS. Wow! My broker has a 8 pips spread. Too much?

8 pips is great so long as that's fixed during figures! which broker you using?
gbpcad and gbpchf are usually the best crosses to trade for uk figuresbut it's best to trade a mixture of them, diversification just helps minimise potential losses as well as catching the bigger move. A good example of this (or bad depedning on whether you wanna include morals into this) woudl be the bombings in london last month. gbpchf dropped 400 pips cos of everyone sellign pound and stocking up on the safe haven ccy.

Don't trade any housing figures, whether they're us or ca as they will never provide the volatiltiy that you're looking for from trading news. *edit* the only housing figures worth trading are the uk ones and even then they're not always reliable. ... if you want the only two worth it are rics and natwide*edit*The only fgures worth trading this week are:
uk trade blance
us rate decision
doe crude oil inventories
au emplyment
us retails
nz retails
jn gdp
ca tb
us tb

it's a real bitch that ca tb is alwas the same time as us tb .. very hard to trade both figures, but her'es a good example of why you'd want to trade gbpad for the ca figure cos you dont' want the us figure to interupt the ca move

 

[Baruch]

Thank you very much.

What about US labor cost tomorrow? After Friday and the fear for more salary inflation it can maybe move the markets, if it a big surprise?
So there are only one important CAD-number this week, Friday?
Do you only trade the news, or? And how do trade the news. Right on or do wait for the rebound?

 

[Baruch]

8 pips is great so long as that's fixed during figures! which broker you using?
gbpcad and gbpchf are usually the best crosses to trade for uk figuresbut it's best to trade a mixture of them, diversification just helps minimise potential losses as well as catching the bigger move. A good example of this (or bad depedning on whether you wanna include morals into this) woudl be the bombings in london last month. gbpchf dropped 400 pips cos of everyone sellign pound and stocking up on the safe haven ccy.

Don't trade any housing figures, whether they're us or ca as they will never provide the volatiltiy that you're looking for from trading news. *edit* the only housing figures worth trading are the uk ones and even then they're not always reliable. ... if you want the only two worth it are rics and natwide*edit*The only fgures worth trading this week are:
uk trade blance
us rate decision
doe crude oil inventories
au emplyment
us retails
nz retails
jn gdp
ca tb
us tb

it's a real bitch that ca tb is alwas the same time as us tb .. very hard to trade both figures, but her'es a good example of why you'd want to trade gbpad for the ca figure cos you dont' want the us figure to interupt the ca move

But the UK PPI today was not bad? How do you trade au and nz - also against Cable or what?

 

[JP1966]

Disagree about that is the only £ figures that move the market. Retail sales, MPC minutes, CBI survey, unemployment, av earnings, have all moved it recently as well.

 

[sccz97]

But the UK PPI today was not bad? How do you trade au and nz - also against Cable or what?

audusd
audjpy
nzdusd

 

[Baruch]

Disagree about that is the only £ figures that move the market. Retail sales, MPC minutes, CBI survey, unemployment, av earnings, have all moved it recently as well.

Maybe it's more easy to say which UK surprise-number has no market impact? The numbers published in the night like BRC Retail Sales Monitor?

 

[Baruch]

audusd
audjpy
nzdusd

Why not also play Cable against au and nz? To little volume or big spreads?

 

[sccz97]

Disagree about that is the only £ figures that move the market. Retail sales, MPC minutes, CBI survey, unemployment, av earnings, have all moved it recently as well.

Retails : I included this in my list of uk figures to trade
mpc minutes : not really a figure but since this is news I'll give you that one
the other three, find me an occasion in the last year where these have gapped more than 10 pips and I'll add them to my list. If you hadn't already gathered, I trade these figures to capture the initial move, not the aftermath. from the last three, perhaps unemplyemont provides some sort of vol to the extent of 10 pips, but not consistently and never a huge move so I don't bother with it. It doens't affect the economony in the way that nonr farm does with us

 

[sccz97]

Why not also play Cable against au and nz? To little volume or big spreads?

just to clarify, cable is a nik for gbpusd. But yeah, i doubt you're going to find a broker that will provide gbpaud or gbpnzd, and if they did the spreads would be too crazy and you're unlikley to get filled

 

[JP1966]

I certainly dont trade the midnight figures as I like to sleep! Sterling more than any other currency seems to like to move when it is in the mood. It especially likes a dump! Of course sometimes it is more reactive -at the moment, with everyone undecided on what is happening to interest rates, then every figure seems to have a bigger impact.

The other thing I have noticed recently is the impact of data has changed over the past few years. I think this is the impact of day trading from non-banks. Previously if a figure came out and you say only get a 10 pip move in the expected direction then the likeyhood was that it would reverse rapidly and go the other way. Now in the minute after a release people who have traded the figure and got it right take their profit and hence there is a retracement. There then is a second wave of tradint to take it in the direction you would have expected.

Look at the PPI this am although the same has been the case many times over the past year or so. (although until this week currencies have not responded to figures for the past two weeks for probably the first time since October 2004). Cable rallied very quickly from 1.7785 to 1.7820 and then very quickly retraced to 1.7805 as people booked profits \. The second wave of buyers then stepped in. drove it through 1.7835 and hence triggered all the stops and the momentum buyers. I believe this reaction is now fairly typical although it means you trade a figure twice now rather than once. (the only caveat is I missed the second move today!).

For Scc - I agree about ths weeks figures although to be fair I only really trade UK.US and to a much lesser extent Euro figs. Will look att he others. I would add the UK inflation report on Weds to your list though.

As for other figures - look at the CBI release at the end of June (29th). Cable moved 200 pips v quickly.

 

[Baruch]

Retails : I included this in my list of uk figures to trade
mpc minutes : not really a figure but since this is news I'll give you that one
the other three, find me an occasion in the last year where these have gapped more than 10 pips and I'll add them to my list. If you hadn't already gathered, I trade these figures to capture the initial move, not the aftermath. from the last three, perhaps unemplyemont provides some sort of vol to the extent of 10 pips, but not consistently and never a huge move so I don't bother with it. It doens't affect the economony in the way that nonr farm does with us

The initial move? So you take position before the news? Or do you just go with the flow (and the news)? But we have seen many times that the dollar goes against the news, it can fall with a positive number and vice versa. And what do you use as stop loss?.

 

[Baruch]

I certainly dont trade the midnight figures as I like to sleep! Sterling more than any other currency seems to like to move when it is in the mood. It especially likes a dump! Of course sometimes it is more reactive -at the moment, with everyone undecided on what is happening to interest rates, then every figure seems to have a bigger impact.

I don't like to say anything bad about the British, but why publish numbers, when we all sleep? What do you mean: "Likes a dump!"?

 

[Baruch]

just to clarify, cable is a nik for gbpusd. But yeah, i doubt you're going to find a broker that will provide gbpaud or gbpnzd, and if they did the spreads would be too crazy and you're unlikley to get filled

Yes, the spread GBP/NZD is 22 pips with Saxo Bank. And GBP/AUD is 12 pips.

 

[JP1966]

Likes a dump - likes to fall rapidly and very rarely can it recover intra-day it if has fallen shrply.

 

[Baruch]

I certainly dont trade the midnight figures as I like to sleep! Sterling more than any other currency seems to like to move when it is in the mood. It especially likes a dump! Of course sometimes it is more reactive -at the moment, with everyone undecided on what is happening to interest rates, then every figure seems to have a bigger impact.

The other thing I have noticed recently is the impact of data has changed over the past few years. I think this is the impact of day trading from non-banks. Previously if a figure came out and you say only get a 10 pip move in the expected direction then the likeyhood was that it would reverse rapidly and go the other way. Now in the minute after a release people who have traded the figure and got it right take their profit and hence there is a retracement. There then is a second wave of tradint to take it in the direction you would have expected.

Look at the PPI this am although the same has been the case many times over the past year or so. (although until this week currencies have not responded to figures for the past two weeks for probably the first time since October 2004). Cable rallied very quickly from 1.7785 to 1.7820 and then very quickly retraced to 1.7805 as people booked profits \. The second wave of buyers then stepped in. drove it through 1.7835 and hence triggered all the stops and the momentum buyers. I believe this reaction is now fairly typical although it means you trade a figure twice now rather than once. (the only caveat is I missed the second move today!).

Do you think small traders take positions before the news? And have you ever done that? Friday with NFP you also saw a rebound after the first move before the move continued. How many pips do you risk (stop loss)?

 

[Baruch]

Likes a dump - likes to fall rapidly and very rarely can it recover intra-day it if has fallen shrply.

OK. I wish there were better spreads for Cable.