Talbs!
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,180
- Likes
- 24
Dow formed a nice channel, taken a short at 13960 looking to scale out at tgts between 13800 and 13750
Which kinda blows my s&p competition out of the window.
:cheesy:
Agree, also blows my comp figure but to be fair id rather have the money than the glory !
Agree, also blows my comp figure but to be fair id rather have the money than the glory !
lol
Im with you on that one.
:clap:
Looks like we wont have to wait long for the break out.
Volume drop off ascending triangle on the daily, looks like the sellers are being taken out of this market.
Maybe a breakout tomorrow?
150 point tgt could give a nice run to 14150, as long as we break to the upside, State of the Union to light the fuse?
Volume drop off ascending triangle on the daily, looks like the sellers are being taken out of this market.
Maybe a breakout tomorrow?
150 point tgt could give a nice run to 14150, as long as we break to the upside, State of the Union to light the fuse?
Attachments
What a week.
This market just doesn't want to break to the downside at all, there is massive support any sell off just gets reversed.
The daily chart for the Dow looks to have set up an expanding triangle and found support at 14020.
Its closed the week inside the triangle, so we could see a few more wild swings, unless the higher low holds up and it ends up as a continuation and pushes us through the top side of the triangle, the targets could hit 14250.
If this is an expanding triangle top then we could see tgts as low as 13400s.
Im flat at the moment but will be looking to play any weakness at the top of triangle as a short, or long any break out, because the move will be massive either way.
:cheesy:
This market just doesn't want to break to the downside at all, there is massive support any sell off just gets reversed.
The daily chart for the Dow looks to have set up an expanding triangle and found support at 14020.
Its closed the week inside the triangle, so we could see a few more wild swings, unless the higher low holds up and it ends up as a continuation and pushes us through the top side of the triangle, the targets could hit 14250.
If this is an expanding triangle top then we could see tgts as low as 13400s.
Im flat at the moment but will be looking to play any weakness at the top of triangle as a short, or long any break out, because the move will be massive either way.
:cheesy:
Attachments
Mr. Crabs
Established member
- Messages
- 598
- Likes
- 3
Right on there are a ton of profits holding the support. If any week would be good to short the DJIA it would presumably be this one with the spending cuts beginning to take effect but I have a feeling we will hold up just fine.
The Dow is looking for direction, be it continuation or correction, in my opinion this looks like classic distribution, strong volume down low volume back up holding support to make sure price doesn't break until they have unwound positions.
They will probably front run the markets to the all time high, get everyone to pile in where you might see a spike higher when everyones longing they will sell into strength pull the rug and ride the roller coaster down when everyone starts clamouring out of their longs and start shorting driving price lower until you get to the point where the accumulation begins all over again.
Supply and demand, fear and greed.
Should be an interesting week, with like you say the sequester kicking in and with NFP to finish it off.
:cheesy:
brewski1984
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,067
- Likes
- 355
Nice daily bar on the DOW supporting 14000, if we weren't near all time highs how many people would go long on the basis of that bar? I'll be disappointed if we don't see 14200 at least.
Mr. Crabs
Established member
- Messages
- 598
- Likes
- 3
For sure bro this week is going to be a big tell, I find it hard to believe bulls can keep up the magnitude of steam we've seen this past quarter but even if they lose some some strength we could still see the DJIA get pulled up begrudgingly to all-time highs before the monster selling occurs; which is basically guaranteed once we hit new highs.
Yep.
This is one of those lock your profits in and trail em kind of days.
:clap:
S&P all time high next?
Funky Trader
Junior member
- Messages
- 46
- Likes
- 2
This thread has proven to me that no-one can actually predict anything with any degree of accuracy.
Better to trade reactively rather than proactively???
Better to trade reactively rather than proactively???
M
malaguti
Trade what you see..prediction doesn't really help anyone.
Lee Shepherd
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,164
- Likes
- 573
The problem with predictions are that people have misconceptions about them. A prediction is just that.
I predict the next colour car going past my window to be Red. My prediction is based on being the most popular colour round here and the one I see the most. I also haven't seen one in a while so the odds should be in my favour. I'll bet you a pound.
Ah, I was wrong. oh well
I didn't bet my house on it and therefore didn't lose that much in comparison to what I have in my pocket. However, my prediction was wrong. Had I of predicted Mustard colour then I would have been right....but here's the thing, my research shows that there are more red cars than mustard.
Its just a prediction. That's all you can do in the markets....Predict.
Here's my take:
One should be proactive not reactive, the same can go for any walk of life. Reactive people will react to what's happening and emotions move in spare of the moment.
Being Pro-active means that you have already made your decision and are well prepared for what's coming next, that is.....win or lose. A popular phrase is plan your trade, trade your plan. It's difficult to do this with emotions as the game plan changes for them.
The more knowledge and information you have the better your predictions will be.
An example of mine was that last month I was majority short biased. Because of this I struggled with some of my trades and cutting them hurt my bottom line but hey ho, I done my best and reversed and got out of what I could at the best price I felt was offered at that time. This resulted in losses. Losses are part of this game.
YOU WILL LOSE MONEY TRADING.
Accept this rule, however, the game is to make more than you lose over a set period of time. And remember to always pay yourself, take money out and stash away. You never know when you could get hit by a black swan.
My question would be to you is that if you do not predict the market then what do you do???
Lee
M
malaguti
I have a slightly different take, and where your analogy is good, lets put this into the context of trading. Whatever time frame we look at, do you try to predict that the next bar will be a red one?
Suppose we are coming to an all time high, we think the market is due to come down even though the truth is that there have been higher highs leading this run...so you will take a losing trade because your prediction was down. Great, you took a losing trade on the chin. but suppose you did not try to predict, and you reacted to what the market is telling you. Remember this thread is who is "shorting the DOW" why would you short something that is going up, and up and up
This prediction could also skew your perception, you will look for something that might confirm where you think the market will go. Ahh, I see an overbought indicator, I see a large strong "plunge" as someone noted on a 3 minute timeframe..
react to what the market does. I say dont try to predict what the market will do, wait, it will tell you and then you react.
By all means be proactive, be ready with your charts, get ready with your platform/broker..but wait patiently and it will be there in front of you.
Just my take of course
Lee Shepherd
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,164
- Likes
- 573
Hi Malaguti,
Obviously the answer is a complex and disputed one and for which will receive many answers both with totally different opinions. That is the nature of the market after all.
The thing is though, I hear what you are saying but isn't every trade we take a prediction. Its a guess, whether educated or not. Its just a prediction.
We cannot get every trade direction right but how we trade should always be right, even if the outcome is not favourable.
We pay our money, we take our chance. Therefore we predict. Even with your analogy of reaction, you should still have to have a plan of your reaction to the possibilities of which there are only ever two to which comes next. If you have planed your reaction then you have been proactive in your nature to react to the next possible set of events. If it does this then I will do that and so on.
Should you be long and the next candle is red then what is your plan...You can only react to an event after it has happened, but, you can plan for that scenario. Again, I am long and therefore my prediction is that it will go up, but, what if it doesn't. So, I use a stop and that is my exit plan should my prediction not come to fruition.
I have made my prediction (guess) and have reacted (placed my trade) to the markets with a proactive outlook (plan).
I know its obviously not that simple but under too much scrutiny can become blurred and complex when in fact it shouldn't be. Most people hate the word prediction and worse still hate the word gamble/guess. Unfortunately that is all we ever do.
Lee
Similar threads
