Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

[DaddyJohn]

it would be nice to see this go a bit lower today

 

[fletchie]

Neil

That is very funny

f

 

[Dommo]

DC ... glad to have you back... I have spent the last three days analysing 4 years of ftse weekly data... I now realise that this is where the clever thinking is.. from my work I can see that we are in a buy week and that indeed Santa is coming to town :whistling

Now going to start looking at the monthly cycles !!!!!

Re: the weekly scatter chart you posted did you try sliding the weeks (eg start the first buy week a week or two weeks later). I wouldn't expect the results to be much different. I would expect the rally number to be overwhelmingly positive (being a high - low) for almost any asset in any reasonably close time frame.

 

[DaddyJohn]

Re: the weekly scatter chart you posted did you try sliding the weeks (eg start the first buy week a week or two weeks later). I wouldn't expect the results to be much different. I would expect the rally number to be overwhelmingly positive (being a high - low) for almost any asset in any reasonably close time frame.

yes I did , the results did differ, but not hugely.. some cycles gave much lower avergae declines.. this one seemed to work the best. I agree with what you say.. but it is counter intuitive isnt it? that even in bear markets you have a high probability of getting back to the low and above of the first week buy low.

Well, it was for me !!

 

[supernovered]

Dommo,

I want to thank you again for putting me onto ButtonTrader a couple of weeks back. I'm now using it live and it has improved my scalping no end, with no more platform related cockups.

I would suggest anyone who scalps/day trades with an IB account take a look.

D

 

[ctlpast]

.. but it is counter intuitive that even in bear markets you have a high probability of getting back to the low and above of the first week buy low.

There is over an 85% chance the market low reached on the Buy Day will be followed two days later by a higher market high on the Sell-Short Day, even in a down-trending market.

I read this somewhere and copied it. I think it is saying the same thing that you found with your analysis of the weekly data/cycle, in a downtrend I agree it is
surprising.

 

[fletchie]

There is over an 85% chance the market low reached on the Buy Day will be followed two days later by a higher market high on the Sell-Short Day, even in a down-trending market.

I read this somewhere and copied it. I think it is saying the same thing that you found with your analysis of the weekly data/cycle, in a downtrend I agree it is
surprising.

I read something similar and thought it sounded ridiculous but checking charts in downtrends I could see plenty of occasions it happened. Of course the sell off from the high was great which made me realise just how profitable the TTT could be even if you only concentrated on the basic Buy Day low trade and the Short Sell Day High sell.

And a lot less stressful than scalping!!!!1:clap:

 

[fletchie]

yes I did , the results did differ, but not hugely.. some cycles gave much lower avergae declines.. this one seemed to work the best. I agree with what you say.. but it is counter intuitive isnt it? that even in bear markets you have a high probability of getting back to the low and above of the first week buy low.

Well, it was for me !!

And thanks for posting your chart DJ

Very interesting -

are you still getting your Value Area numbers?
Do you work these yourself from Volume and price or is it a feed from a firm?

fletchie

 

[DaddyJohn]

And thanks for posting your chart DJ

Very interesting -

are you still getting your Value Area numbers?
Do you work these yourself from Volume and price or is it a feed from a firm?

fletchie

I have market profile software on e-signal , but it is expensive for what Iuse it for.. am currently trying to find a feed service as I am sure it would be cheaper

 

[supernovered]

I read something similar and thought it sounded ridiculous but checking charts in downtrends I could see plenty of occasions it happened. Of course the sell off from the high was great which made me realise just how profitable the TTT could be even if you only concentrated on the basic Buy Day low trade and the Short Sell Day High sell.

And a lot less stressful than scalping!!!!1:clap:

Are you trading the TTT method Fletchie?

 

[reksa]

I read something similar and thought it sounded ridiculous but checking charts in downtrends I could see plenty of occasions it happened. Of course the sell off from the high was great which made me realise just how profitable the TTT could be even if you only concentrated on the basic Buy Day low trade and the Short Sell Day High sell.

And a lot less stressful than scalping!!!!1:clap:

Wow is there anyone not trading the Taylor method on here? :cheesy:

Has anyone got data over the last couple of months on which days were the buy days so everyone on this thread can see for themselves the method working and this 85% statistic.

 

[DaddyJohn]

There is over an 85% chance the market low reached on the Buy Day will be followed two days later by a higher market high on the Sell-Short Day, even in a down-trending market.

I read this somewhere and copied it. I think it is saying the same thing that you found with your analysis of the weekly data/cycle, in a downtrend I agree it is
surprising.

What I find exciting though is once you realise that this works on weekly numbers , then you can develop assumptions on where the market will want to trade the following week and then use the daily patterns to work out a route map from which you can trade with huge amount of confidence.

 

[Dommo]

yes I did , the results did differ, but not hugely.. some cycles gave much lower avergae declines.. this one seemed to work the best. I agree with what you say.. but it is counter intuitive isnt it? that even in bear markets you have a high probability of getting back to the low and above of the first week buy low.

Well, it was for me !!

Agreed - it does illustrate just how much retracement occurs (and it's quite plain to me that the (absolute) amount of ground covered and retraced always far exceeds any move from point A to B). To me the result is intuitive rather than counterintuitive (but I have a natural preference for fading markets!). Very interesting that you saw much lower average declines in some cycles (although I wonder if outliers are responsible - eg May 2010).

I looked at market turning points a while ago on different granularities (say 25 points, 50 points) and as a rule of thumb (by no means perfect) if you halve the granularity you see about 4 times as many turning points ie a square or inverse square law.

For example, on FTSE in the last month at granularity of 100 points I see 10 turning points, whereas on granularity of 50 points I see 43 turning points.

I'm tempted to believe there is some result like this in Brownian Motion although right now I can't put my finger on it. [edit - I guess I'm thinking of expected root mean square distance in random walk]

All this indicates to me that if you're looking for (say) a 100pt move, then even if the trade is always in your favour from inception to target you're likely to see a lot of adverse movement. I guess you just have to be prepared for that on your choice of granularity/timescale (and perhaps you could also infer that you shouldn't swap timescales mid-trade).

Another implication is that there is (potentially) a lot more money to be made in short term scalping at a low granularity of a few points (assuming, of course that you're extraordinarily good at picking short term minima/maxima).

I think the above is intuitive and echoes the experience of anyone who watches markets. However, none of this really makes it much easier to predict the NEXT turning point on any timescale/granularity.

Thanks

 

[Dommo]

Dommo,

I want to thank you again for putting me onto ButtonTrader a couple of weeks back. I'm now using it live and it has improved my scalping no end, with no more platform related cockups.

I would suggest anyone who scalps/day trades with an IB account take a look.

D

Thanks - for scalpers I think the software is excellent and much easier than the IB front end.

 

[fletchie]

Are you trading the TTT method Fletchie?

Not as such

I am trying to learn it at the moment, or at the very least get a decent basic understanding of it

If I can have a plan of what the market should do ( no guarantees of course) then I can decide how I want to trade it before play as it were and that means a whole let fewer decisions and less stress than scalping which I have been doing for some time

I actually think there is great merit in just picking buy day low and ss high during a week and just trading them and ignoring a lot else that goes on around them

fletchie:innocent:

 

[DaddyJohn]

Agreed - it does illustrate just how much retracement occurs (and it's quite plain to me that the (absolute) amount of ground covered and retraced always far exceeds any move from point A to B). To me the result is intuitive rather than counterintuitive (but I have a natural preference for fading markets!). Very interesting that you saw much lower average declines in some cycles (although I wonder if outliers are responsible - eg May 2010).

I looked at market turning points a while ago on different granularities (say 25 points, 50 points) and as a rule of thumb (by no means perfect) if you halve the granularity you see about 4 times as many turning points ie a square or inverse square law.

For example, on FTSE in the last month at granularity of 100 points I see 10 turning points, whereas on granularity of 50 points I see 43 turning points.

I'm tempted to believe there is some result like this in Brownian Motion although right now I can't put my finger on it.

All this indicates to me that if you're looking for (say) a 100pt move, then even if the trade is always in your favour from inception to target you're likely to see a lot of adverse movement. I guess you just have to be prepared for that on your choice of granularity/timescale (and perhaps you could also infer that you shouldn't swap timescales mid-trade).

Another implication is that there is (potentially) a lot more money to be made in short term scalping at a low granularity of a few points (assuming, of course that you're extraordinarily good at picking short term minima/maxima).

I think the above is intuitive and echoes the experience of anyone who watches markets. However, none of this really makes it much easier to predict the NEXT turning point on any timescale/granularity.

Thanks

Excellent Post Dommo !!!!

picking turning points is of course critical to success in this approach...

DC seems to have an excellent ability to pick these prices.. sometimes he can be 50-100 pts wrong but never anymore than that and 90% of the time he is very close , say with 20pts...

I wish I know how to do this as for me it completes the jigsaw... once you have lots of confidence in your ability to forecast the end / or start of a move , then you have a start and end point from which to apply the three week and three day cycle.....

I use Gann and this is good for picking major, major potential turns , but not for the kind of trading we want to do.

 

[Dommo]

Yes - DC has made some outstanding calls. Very interesting thread.

 

[DaddyJohn]

Yes - DC has made some outstanding calls. Very interesting thread.

Yes.. but my point is that Taylor is only highly effective if you can call out the target prices with reasonable accuracy and consistency ,, without this its a bit like having a great boat with a top of the range compass but you have no idea where to point the bloody things.

 

[Mornington Crescent]

Wow is there anyone not trading the Taylor method on here?

yup

and of course the market doesnt really know it exists

so keep your shirts in the cupboard

sorry to be a party pooper

 

[reksa]

yup

and of course the market doesnt really know it exists

so keep your shirts in the cupboard

sorry to be a party pooper

I'm on the fence here. You may all be onto a great way off reading the market, but i do agree with MC, does the market know it exists.

Can anyone post the dates of the buy days? so i can have a look at this 85% stat.

Not trying to challenge the method, just interested.