Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

[DaddyJohn]

evening chaps

well it aint what the Doc ordered

DC you are right , price extended far further down than any of us expected.. However my stop losses limited the pain.. But I am still long.

I think there are good reasons for us to expect a rally next week regardless of the negativity around.. I have sent the day reviewing the currencies and commodity prices and I think there is good reason to trust in a rally next week. Given the Chinese PMI released this weekend , we may even get a gap up on Monday. I will spend some time collating my thoughts and post tomorrow with a more detailed analysis. Best regards.

 

[dc2000]

My preference is to gap down slightly but no problem if we gap up 100 either, the DOW has a 10767 area but would like to leave that alone for now and keep in play for late October

the FTSE hit 5035 area aftermarket so thats fine

Im still long on both the DOW and FTSE an early trip(UK session) to 11178 DOW 5192 FTSE would see me jump off and wait for reload but not go short

once we get up to 5304 tuesday wednesday and it starts to look weak shorts would be ok for about 80 point or so, thursday an early 5312 will be sold only to be bought back ready for friday follow through

Target to upside on DOW 11898 FTSE 5720s

 

[Dick Lexic]

For me the charts are still indicating more downside but price is sitting on wk bar fib at 5043 so we might get a quick reversal, maybe a touch dow to 5000. If it does then close/hold above 89 then 150 is key for me.

Everyone playing bash a bank right now but a wee bit of good news out of Europe could send the lift back up to the second floor. Ground floor level for me at the mo is 4967.

good game :cheesy:

 

[ibetyou]

Hi dc2000.just like to say,i'm an avid reader of the thread and thank you and wallstreet for the insight you share with us all.
I acknowledge you both and look farward to your veiws on the week ahead.

i'm with you next week up to wednesday then haveing seen your target of 5720 for the ftse your on your own mate sorry.
Think i would wait till thursdays open as i've got 4948 unless it hits that on monday then i might hang on your shirt tail.
I exspect your right as i'm always to early.

But for next weeks ftse 100 dec contract i have high 5268 low 4948 and a possible drop to 4790
which is why when i see you with a possible 5720 i'm heading back to the charts to see what i'm missing as i trust you more than i do myself.

And this is exactly why i love reading your preference on the week ahead, i'm missing something.
It may be with all the doom and gloom around i'm more focussed on the downside and not seeing the bigger picture.
So i would like to say a great big thankyou for the time and trouble you so kindly give us all.

 

[DaddyJohn]

Ok , price below are FTSE futures. First let me give some thoughts on why I think we may have a nice rally this week, which could start either tomorrow or Wednesday , so I am preapred there maybe some downside before the push up.

1) FTSE is down -6.6% on the month driven mainly by Mining (-15%), banking sector is actually down only -3%. I have noticed strong buying coming back into oil companies of late even though wti and brent are much lower. Tullow oil was up 21% on the month , BP is down only -3.9%. Construction and Building materials is UP on the month +5% a very cyclical sector.

2) Copper is close to major support and is close to 50% retracement from its Nov lows to recent high.
3) The Euro / Dollar is now at 50% retacement of its move from June 2010 to May 2011 high.
4) WTI is at 61.8% retracement from its 2009 lows to recent highs
5) Brent is 38.2 % retracement.

Coincidence?? -
I also noticed a lot of buying of Oil and Mining stocks in the last hour of the cash trade on Friday. I for one will be taking some clues from Rio Tinto or AAL tomorrow.

In terms of levels (futures) I see a potential downside of 4927/54 if we break below 5005. Above 5094 then I am looking for 5170 and then 5220/35. I think a weekly target of 5300 is possible . Not sure how I feel about the 5700's , but some good news on ISM and NFP could indeed push us significantly higher.

In terms of ISM I expect this to be better this week now we are coming out of the summer. NFP is the woory, but the -48K AT&T strike count that was included last month will now be reversed and included in the number ... but the market knows this of course.

The Chines PMI Friday worried the market, but this is a survery of small business in China. The large cap PMI survey we say over the weekend was very bullish and record exports... the big negative for tomorrow is the franco/ belgium bank Dexia.

Happy trading

 

[DaddyJohn]

btw , interesting if you change your FTSE cash charts to a time period of 480 minutes, you then can see the price action from 8am to 4pm and then from 4pm to close. This weeks price action looks so much more bullish when you do this

 

[DaddyJohn]

Ok , price below are FTSE futures. First let me give some thoughts on why I think we may have a nice rally this week, which could start either tomorrow or Wednesday , so I am preapred there maybe some downside before the push up.

1) FTSE is down -6.6% on the month driven mainly by Mining (-15%), banking sector is actually down only -3%. I have noticed strong buying coming back into oil companies of late even though wti and brent are much lower. Tullow oil was up 21% on the month , BP is down only -3.9%. Construction and Building materials is UP on the month +5% a very cyclical sector.

2) Copper is close to major support and is close to 50% retracement from its Nov lows to recent high.
3) The Euro / Dollar is now at 50% retacement of its move from June 2010 to May 2011 high.
4) WTI is at 61.8% retracement from its 2009 lows to recent highs
5) Brent is 38.2 % retracement.

Coincidence?? -
I also noticed a lot of buying of Oil and Mining stocks in the last hour of the cash trade on Friday. I for one will be taking some clues from Rio Tinto or AAL tomorrow.

In terms of levels (futures) I see a potential downside of 4927/54 if we break below 5005. Above 5094 then I am looking for 5170 and then 5220/35. I think a weekly target of 5300 is possible . Not sure how I feel about the 5700's , but some good news on ISM and NFP could indeed push us significantly higher.

In terms of ISM I expect this to be better this week now we are coming out of the summer. NFP is the woory, but the -48K AT&T strike count that was included last month will now be reversed and included in the number ... but the market knows this of course.

The Chines PMI Friday worried the market, but this is a survery of small business in China. The large cap PMI survey we say over the weekend was very bullish and record exports... the big negative for tomorrow is the franco/ belgium bank Dexia.

Happy trading

apolgies for error above.. I mean Monday or Tuesday

 

[dc2000]

Hi dc2000.just like to say,i'm an avid reader of the thread and thank you and wallstreet for the insight you share with us all.
I acknowledge you both and look farward to your veiws on the week ahead.

i'm with you next week up to wednesday then haveing seen your target of 5720 for the ftse your on your own mate sorry.
Think i would wait till thursdays open as i've got 4948 unless it hits that on monday then i might hang on your shirt tail.
I exspect your right as i'm always to early.

But for next weeks ftse 100 dec contract i have high 5268 low 4948 and a possible drop to 4790
which is why when i see you with a possible 5720 i'm heading back to the charts to see what i'm missing as i trust you more than i do myself.

And this is exactly why i love reading your preference on the week ahead, i'm missing something.
It may be with all the doom and gloom around i'm more focussed on the downside and not seeing the bigger picture.
So i would like to say a great big thankyou for the time and trouble you so kindly give us all.

thankyou for your kind words

 

[DaddyJohn]

My preference is to gap down slightly but no problem if we gap up 100 either, the DOW has a 10767 area but would like to leave that alone for now and keep in play for late October

the FTSE hit 5035 area aftermarket so thats fine

Im still long on both the DOW and FTSE an early trip(UK session) to 11178 DOW 5192 FTSE would see me jump off and wait for reload but not go short

once we get up to 5304 tuesday wednesday and it starts to look weak shorts would be ok for about 80 point or so, thursday an early 5312 will be sold only to be bought back ready for friday follow through

Target to upside on DOW 11898 FTSE 5720s

DC are you able to share your logic on the 5720?

 

[wallstreet1928]

DC are you able to share your logic on the 5720?

His theory is possible an it would cause a serious short squeeze........shorts would be caught with there pants down!!

this would be based on some QE 3 type even or a European bazoooka...resolution to debt crisis

The German Dax has IHS formation , whilst the ftse has H&S formation on daily chart

now TA analysis states a H&S has a low probability of playing out @ bottom of market = thereby creating a powerful short squeeze.

This is why I an already long from last night on my blog

I will be long DAX from market open - IHS formation


long dAX UPTO 5300
avg = 5350

stop loss = 5150

tgt = 5550, 5600

 

[dc2000]

DC are you able to share your logic on the 5720?

target carrried over from Sept

pattern reversal on the DOW see two and three weeks ago pattern will carry into next Monday

if you want to analyse reasoning then you were spot on with the banks and mining

 

[DaddyJohn]

target carrried over from Sept

pattern reversal on the DOW see two and three weeks ago pattern will carry into next Monday

if you want to analyse reasoning then you were spot on with the banks and mining

Many thanks DC... I appreciate your words.

and as predicted ISM/ PMIs coming in better than expected

 

[MartinC-J]

Before the scalpers get buried under the swing to swinging, scalpers should still stick to taking their normal short targets and enter again if the setup dictates. All this expecting the FTSE to head off to new highs does not change the picture for a short term trader. If you are up 15 to 20 pts and the price is approaching an area of resistance, you are sometimes still better off closing at resistance, and entering again if resistance is broken. All of this holding out for a bigger target is fine, but if it doesn't happen then you have missed out on several opportunities.

 

[DaddyJohn]

Before the scalpers get buried under the swing to swinging, scalpers should still stick to taking their normal short targets and enter again if the setup dictates. All this expecting the FTSE to head off to new highs does not change the picture for a short term trader. If you are up 15 to 20 pts and the price is approaching an area of resistance, you are sometimes still better off closing at resistance, and entering again if resistance is broken. All of this holding out for a bigger target is fine, but if it doesn't happen then you have missed out on several opportunities.

Martin I agree with this... I am planning to hold today... but I could have made twice what I have so far if I had exited and renetered on resistance and support tests. @-( , but I am determined for once to hold this one and let it run for longer.

 

[lurkalot]

Before the scalpers get buried under the swing to swinging, scalpers should still stick to taking their normal short targets and enter again if the setup dictates. All this expecting the FTSE to head off to new highs does not change the picture for a short term trader. If you are up 15 to 20 pts and the price is approaching an area of resistance, you are sometimes still better off closing at resistance, and entering again if resistance is broken. All of this holding out for a bigger target is fine, but if it doesn't happen then you have missed out on several opportunities.

I feel I have to agree and disagree, which I know doesn't make any sense. But whenever I move a stop to be+ I often feel I should just sell as the price 'always' (it feels like it) goes back to hit the stop.

It feels like a conspiracy at times.

Have you done any analysis that you are willing to share on this? I keep saying to myself I must test this theory but never seem to focus on actually doing something about it.

 

[wallstreet1928]

Re: Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders
I am reading too much bearish news @ present ........

Last week I held a bearish view and all targets were hit on downside very quickly ...

This week I remain bearish also , but given the sharp drop back to multiple support zones and a few bullish TA set ups ....I expect a short covering bounce to knock out all the weak shorts .

Then I expect a massive sell off .......as I have mentioned already Armageddon part 1 is over , part 2 is now active

just take copper as an example is has been battered and bruised.......it was stabbed over night and soon it will be buried as it sell off hard !!

Dr Copper is your barometer of risk

risk on / risk off

I have stated to everyone over the last few weeks that Copper would cause a sell off in Global markets ........and it is not over yet !!

---------------------------------

I have ftse long from 4980 region and dax 5350 region

so far + 90 points and counting .....

I should hit + 200 by the evening if not + 300

all analysis and live commentary and trades on my blog , feel free to read

thank you

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/uk-...alls-ftse-dax-s-p-aimed-help-new-traders.html

 

[DaddyJohn]

I feel I have to agree and disagree, which I know doesn't make any sense. But whenever I move a stop to be+ I often feel I should just sell as the price 'always' (it feels like it) goes back to hit the stop.

It feels like a conspiracy at times.

Have you done any analysis that you are willing to share on this? I keep saying to myself I must test this theory but never seem to focus on actually doing something about it.

There is talk that some of the exchanges have "allegedly" given data to the algo companies that shows where traders tend to have stop (ie how far away) ,, it is also poosible for the algos to scan the order book and see if the order belongs to a real human (they are tagged) One of the traders I work with who is very, very successful is convinced that the algos know his unique Mnemonic and purposely ensure he only gets partial fills. I know it all sounds very conspiracy theory.. but I have enough stories from well connected traders that should make us worried. This is one of the reasons why the USA, UK and Europe are now investigating the high frequency algo companies and the relationships they have with the exchanges. In fact they have demanded they hand over the code and explain how they work and for the exchnages to hand over their pricing policies...... as I say this is all alledged... answer is to scalp with a smaller size and have a wider stop, but look for a longer gain. If I am scalping I do not use a stop... I know this is seen as bad practice, and I wouldnt advise it to anyone , ... but I do trade using price ladders and I can see from the order flow when the algos are just spoofing the market down to traders stops , then I will add to my position ccc.. In volatile time (like now) I will have a stop in all day.. but way down the market... this is there only if soemthing really blows middle of trade i.e. bank goes bust, or N Korea fires nuclear missile

 

[DaddyJohn]

DC are you able to share your logic on the 5720?

DC ... I suspect we have a good chance of hitting 5172 today , if US ISM is good - do you concur?

 

[wallstreet1928]

FTSE and DAX longs now almost + 100 points so far

risk reduced from all trades

stop loss now b/e on both

target + 300 on Day 1

target of 1000 points this week .......

day 7 of posting live trades ,

100% success rate so far, this will continue until day 30 god willing

my previous record is 42 days without stop loss being hit

 

[MartinC-J]

I feel I have to agree and disagree, which I know doesn't make any sense. But whenever I move a stop to be+ I often feel I should just sell as the price 'always' (it feels like it) goes back to hit the stop.

It feels like a conspiracy at times.

Have you done any analysis that you are willing to share on this? I keep saying to myself I must test this theory but never seem to focus on actually doing something about it.

lurkeo - no specific analysis, but just the normal modus operandii for a scalper/short term trader. I have a rule, for normal price action, that if you are up 5pts, then move your stop to break even. That way if you give up 5 pts, then you won't spend the rest of the day kicking yourself for not getting out at breakeven instead of taking a bigger loss. The psychological damage is worse than the actual loss.

This mornings price action has lacked conviction, so all the more reason for getting out at short targets 5 to 10 pts.

The FTSE futures opened up 100 pts down from the price at fridays cash close. That's a lot of negativity to overturn, when the Greek debt situation seems to be coming to a head.

On the 5 min chart, it is trying to break out to new highs. We've got an ascending triangle that could break either way. Let's see if it can get above 5013 with any conviction. Otherwise it's back down to 4950.