Morning all,
Ftse sp 6770 rez 6800 short term.
Usually look to US markets for a lead but I feel they are becoming more divergent from ftse100 as different levers are pulling them around.
Therefore keeping a close eye on oil and cable.... have even dipped my toe in trading cable as it provides a correlated trade.
Ftse sp 6770 rez 6800 short term.
Usually look to US markets for a lead but I feel they are becoming more divergent from ftse100 as different levers are pulling them around.
Therefore keeping a close eye on oil and cable.... have even dipped my toe in trading cable as it provides a correlated trade.
P
postman
Evening all.
Dow's been moping around in negative territory all day but is going to close up.
Dow's been moping around in negative territory all day but is going to close up.
G'day,
Groundhog..as above though Oil/ cable down a tad might take ftse to sp 6740-50 rez 6780ish.
joseph1986
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quiet the suspense on the dax.
Moment of truth we've been all waiting for comes down to the next couple of hours.
Up or down......we shall find out
Moment of truth we've been all waiting for comes down to the next couple of hours.
Up or down......we shall find out
joseph1986
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****with but a few exception it is always the
underdog who wins through sheer will
power
underdog who wins through sheer will
power
P
postman
P
postman
Short dow 19187
P
postman
Well it looked good at 187 so It looks much better at 208 :whistling
P
postman
I really like the way the dow jumped 20 points higher immediately that trading stopped.
Its 12 points below its all time high on the bucket shop accounts.
Its 12 points below its all time high on the bucket shop accounts.
piphoe
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Why does it even have to close at all? This is 21st century isn't it? What they got reset the computers?
joseph1986
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Eight Italian banks risk collapse in the coming months if the nation votes "no" to, or against, constitutional changes proposed by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi in Sunday's nationwide referendum.
The proposed changes would reduce the role of the senate and transfer power to the central government from the regions, Reuters reports.
If "no" wins in next Sunday's referendum — most polls put it about 6 percentage points ahead of the "yes" camp — market turmoil and turbulence should follow, according to officials and senior bankers cited by the Financial Times on Sunday.
The world's oldest bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, along with Popolare di Vicenza, Veneto Banca, Carige, Banca Etruria, CariChieti, Banca delle Marche, and CariFerrara could all end up at risk if market turbulence prevails.
Market turbulence will stem from the likely resignation of Renzi as prime minister if he loses the vote. It is unclear whether Renzi will stand down, as he has repeatedly changed his stance in the lead-up to the referendum.
Based on the assumption that Renzi does step down, Italy will enter a period of great uncertainty as it tries to form a transitional government and find a new prime minister. Markets hate uncertainty, meaning turbulence in Italian equities, bonds, and other asset classes is almost certain to follow.
This, in turn, will make it less likely that investors will want to help recapitalise Italy's risky banks, those cited by the Financial Times argue.
"Senior bankers and officials said that the worst-case scenario was where a failure of Monte Paschi's complex €5bn recapitalisation and bad-debt restructuring demanded by regulators would translate into a wider failure of confidence in Italy and imperil a market solution for its ailing banks," the FT says.
The country's financial sector is plagued by a surfeit of bad loans so great that in April the government was forced to rally bank executives, insurers, and investors into putting €5 billion (£4.2 billion, $5.57 billion) behind a rescue fund for its weakest banks. The Atalante fund is designed to buy so-called bad loans from lenders and invest in their shares in the hope that the re-energized banks will lend more to businesses and spur growth.
Monte dei Paschi di Siena is the worst affected, and at one point this year it held bad loans equivalent to almost 50 times its market capitalisation. The bank managed to agree to a rescue package involving the likes of JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and HSBC at the end of July. That package and other recapitalisations could be at risk after a vote no.
"The capital increases of Italian banks due to be announced right after the referendum may become even trickier than currently perceived in the case of a 'No' vote," Lorenzo Codogno, the former chief economist of Italy's Treasury, told the FT.
Worries in the markets about the Italian banking sector are pretty clear Monday morning, with shares in the country's lenders tumbling. Here's how UniCredit, Italy's only globally systemically important bank, looks so far:
The proposed changes would reduce the role of the senate and transfer power to the central government from the regions, Reuters reports.
If "no" wins in next Sunday's referendum — most polls put it about 6 percentage points ahead of the "yes" camp — market turmoil and turbulence should follow, according to officials and senior bankers cited by the Financial Times on Sunday.
The world's oldest bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, along with Popolare di Vicenza, Veneto Banca, Carige, Banca Etruria, CariChieti, Banca delle Marche, and CariFerrara could all end up at risk if market turbulence prevails.
Market turbulence will stem from the likely resignation of Renzi as prime minister if he loses the vote. It is unclear whether Renzi will stand down, as he has repeatedly changed his stance in the lead-up to the referendum.
Based on the assumption that Renzi does step down, Italy will enter a period of great uncertainty as it tries to form a transitional government and find a new prime minister. Markets hate uncertainty, meaning turbulence in Italian equities, bonds, and other asset classes is almost certain to follow.
This, in turn, will make it less likely that investors will want to help recapitalise Italy's risky banks, those cited by the Financial Times argue.
"Senior bankers and officials said that the worst-case scenario was where a failure of Monte Paschi's complex €5bn recapitalisation and bad-debt restructuring demanded by regulators would translate into a wider failure of confidence in Italy and imperil a market solution for its ailing banks," the FT says.
The country's financial sector is plagued by a surfeit of bad loans so great that in April the government was forced to rally bank executives, insurers, and investors into putting €5 billion (£4.2 billion, $5.57 billion) behind a rescue fund for its weakest banks. The Atalante fund is designed to buy so-called bad loans from lenders and invest in their shares in the hope that the re-energized banks will lend more to businesses and spur growth.
Monte dei Paschi di Siena is the worst affected, and at one point this year it held bad loans equivalent to almost 50 times its market capitalisation. The bank managed to agree to a rescue package involving the likes of JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and HSBC at the end of July. That package and other recapitalisations could be at risk after a vote no.
"The capital increases of Italian banks due to be announced right after the referendum may become even trickier than currently perceived in the case of a 'No' vote," Lorenzo Codogno, the former chief economist of Italy's Treasury, told the FT.
Worries in the markets about the Italian banking sector are pretty clear Monday morning, with shares in the country's lenders tumbling. Here's how UniCredit, Italy's only globally systemically important bank, looks so far:
joseph1986
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not entirely aag, that was an article from business insider. we are witnessing historic 5hit and everyone should know. This is EU Hospice care
joseph1986
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my theory is that big institutions been dumping equities all day considering we had 2 anomalies brexit then trump....this italian referendum may be the final blow and that wonderful rally back to norms may not happen. Best to observe and not take risks
Maddog79er
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So who's playing the referendum Sunday night?
Swiss franc...possibly
Maddog79er
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Personally I think it will turn out to be a catalyst for a reversal across most indices. The difference here between Brexit and Trump is that there is no quick plan B. If Renzi stands down, it will create political turmoil and possibly a snap election. So no V shape on the markets for me, be careful chasing it back up this time round!
joseph1986
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,
Italy banned polling on this ref but at this point the guy is going up against whole damn political class....think the story goes like this:
Hold off on rate hikes in september 2016.....let markets fall in december with rate hike italian ref....bring volatility to 2013 levels in jan feb 2017 , scrap the rate hikes in march or june 2017 meeting
plaster media with corporate earnings beats in summer.......drop the oil prices from $60-70 in fall 2017 and bring up $80 oil in 2018
Boom! you just dodged a recession and we all forget about 2016
Italy banned polling on this ref but at this point the guy is going up against whole damn political class....think the story goes like this:
Hold off on rate hikes in september 2016.....let markets fall in december with rate hike italian ref....bring volatility to 2013 levels in jan feb 2017 , scrap the rate hikes in march or june 2017 meeting
plaster media with corporate earnings beats in summer.......drop the oil prices from $60-70 in fall 2017 and bring up $80 oil in 2018
Boom! you just dodged a recession and we all forget about 2016
Maddog79er
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haha that made me laugh! You are probably spot on!
