Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

MartinC-J said:
Jimi - have you tried backtesting your system to improve your odds? In other words you may find that it works better on tuesdays instead of wednesdays. Or if the opening range of the first hour is less than the average or more than the average. Otherwise, you need to take a subjective view each morning and look at the price action first thing. If its cagey and moribund don't trade. If it has strong moves from the start then trade.

At the moment the market is trying to bounce, and 5768.5 is holding for now. It will test the lows now. If it prints a higher low on the 5 min chart, it will probably move up through the morning. I have 5787 for a possible high target.
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Martin

I've been trading for 3 years now and programming for half that time. I've done lots of backtesting, programming & testing ideas, optimising parameters etc (nearly always on the FTSE, occasionally with Forex) and have finally concluded that it is impossible to develop an automated system that works for all market conditions (of the UK100). Although initially I thought 'Why not?' However, I now accept that an element of intuition or jusdgement is necessary. Whilst I've investigated many ideas, I've never analysed the results of a back test to see if a day of the week is better than another. I will do that next week when I get back to my computer. Why that should be the case I have no idea. However, I'm open to all ideas.

Thanks

Jimi
 
mmm, ftse got to about +30 strong by 16:00 only to go -19 weak into the close (mainly from around 16:15). Thus finishing up only +6 strong for the day.

Not sure what to make of the last dash to weakness - I guess nervous about dow sell-off again and anticipating it. Should it be wrong about that and dow holds around 12830+ then ftse will have some catching up to do in the morning (Greece permitting).
 
jimioddy said:
Martin

I've been trading for 3 years now and programming for half that time. I've done lots of backtesting, programming & testing ideas, optimising parameters etc (nearly always on the FTSE, occasionally with Forex) and have finally concluded that it is impossible to develop an automated system that works for all market conditions (of the UK100). Although initially I thought 'Why not?' However, I now accept that an element of intuition or jusdgement is necessary. Whilst I've investigated many ideas, I've never analysed the results of a back test to see if a day of the week is better than another. I will do that next week when I get back to my computer. Why that should be the case I have no idea. However, I'm open to all ideas.

Thanks

Jimi
Click to expand...

Jimi, if you've been trading for 3 years, you don't need suggestions from me. Interesting to hear your conclusion that it is impossible to develop an automated system that works for all markets, but maybe you can have a set of criteria that select two or three trading systems that should be selected depending on price action and speed of price movement.

I'd like to develop an indicator that tells me the speed the price is going up or down. Something that expresses a smoothed points per second the price is moving up or down so you can spot changes of acceleration easier. One day I will figure out how to program candle length divided by time for a 50 volume chart.
 
Chalky_trader said:
Jon / Martin

I appreciate your feedback

That clears it up a bit in my mind,

wherever you start it, or end it however, the recent selloff was pretty severe, im looking to sell each sign of weakness and hold any winners as long as i possibly can.

Have a good evening and good luck for tomorrow.
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Chalky thanks for your sentiments. Good luck with your shorts. If the greeks fail to get their money tomorrow, you may well be rewarded.
 
Nice 30 point spike. On what seemed like news that broke before the session even started.

Im sure that is not the last of today's spikes.
 
reksa said:
Nice 30 point spike. On what seemed like news that broke before the session even started.

Im sure that is not the last of today's spikes.
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Heaven to Betsy, I did it again. Just gone ftse long/dow short before the spike and thought I was quids in straightaway since ftse was +8 strong on the spike. Red in the account though because I'd entered equal positions rather than 2:1.

I thought I'd never do such a stupid thing again after the last time :mad:
 
No, I think that it would have had to come back to 5830. Anyone shorting at those upper levels might have made some points but I was disappointed and am waiting to see what will happen now. I use averages in my trading for comfirmation and these are, still, very definitely, up.

I think that a new day's high may be reached. I'm just as ignorant as everyone else as to what is going to happen next. It's just an opinion that I am not so sure of shorting the market until the next 5 min bar has completed

And the next....

And the next.... :D
 
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Splitlink said:
No, I think that it would have had to come back to 5830. Anyone shorting at those upper levels might have made some points but I was disappointed and am waiting to see what will happen now. I use averages in my trading for comfirmation and these are, still, very definitely, up.

I think that a new day's high may be reached. I'm just as ignorant as everyone else as to what is going to happen next. It's just an opinion that I am not so sure of shorting the market until the next 5 min bar has completed

And the next....

And the next.... :D
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I can see where your coming from. But as far as I'm aware you don't need it go back to the same price level for it to be classed as a spike. We was in a 18 point range from the bell, we then got a surge of 29 points in 2 minutes. Ransquawk annouced the sudden spike to the upside. I was really referring to the atypical price movement and in no way calling it a short opportunity.
 
MartinC-J said:
Jimi, if you've been trading for 3 years, you don't need suggestions from me. Interesting to hear your conclusion that it is impossible to develop an automated system that works for all markets, but maybe you can have a set of criteria that select two or three trading systems that should be selected depending on price action and speed of price movement.

I'd like to develop an indicator that tells me the speed the price is going up or down. Something that expresses a smoothed points per second the price is moving up or down so you can spot changes of acceleration easier. One day I will figure out how to program candle length divided by time for a 50 volume chart.
Click to expand...

Supposing you had such an indicator, how would it help? i.e. how would you use it? Have you backtested (visually/approximately).
 
reksa said:
I can see where your coming from. But as far as I'm aware you don't need it go back to the same price level for it to be classed as a spike. We was in a 18 point range from the bell, we then got a surge of 29 points in 2 minutes. Ransquawk annouced the sudden spike to the upside. I was really referring to the atypical price movement and in no way calling it a short opportunity.
Click to expand...

I wonder what the others think that a spike is? Do you remember, sometime around November, when I was so annoyed that I had been waiting all morning and I think that it was an 80 point spike and I had a 12 point stop on so I did not get caught for much, just a lost opportunity? That stayed up there, too.
 
Splitlink said:
I wonder what the others think that a spike is? Do you remember, sometime around November, when I was so annoyed that I had been waiting all morning and I think that it was an 80 point spike and I had a 12 point stop on so I did not get caught for much, just a lost opportunity? That stayed up there, too.
Click to expand...

I have tried to explain that I was describing the sudden surge upward with the price action. If you search online you will find many definitions of a spike, some that would suit the v shape your looking for or just the sudden surge that I was expressing.

But just so everyone is on the same song sheet I will use SURGE from now on :cheesy:
 
barjon said:
Heaven to Betsy, I did it again. Just gone ftse long/dow short before the spike and thought I was quids in straightaway since ftse was +8 strong on the spike. Red in the account though because I'd entered equal positions rather than 2:1.

I thought I'd never do such a stupid thing again after the last time :mad:
Click to expand...

Closed it all now (having adjusted to 2:1 earlier). ftse got strong by +30 and more than did its catching up from yesterdays late weakness. Should have done well, but barely made a profit thanks to my stupidity.



ftse itself now pretty much back in the lower end of the February trading range. Wonder if it'll consolidate here or take fright, Greece notwithstanding. .

ps: spike - a sharp, significant movement relative to whatever time frame you're in
 
Two ways of looking at things, as always.

ftse held up remarkably strong against the dow fall from about 13:00 to the open. That either means:

1. ftse is rarin' to go, or
2. it's anticipated an opening dow climb

After the first 15 mins it looks like 2 so if dow starts selling off we might see an accelerated ftse fall - or we might not :)
 
jimioddy said:
Supposing you had such an indicator, how would it help? i.e. how would you use it? Have you backtested (visually/approximately).
Click to expand...

Jimi - sorry for the late reply. I have been on a building site for most of the day.

Having something like a tickometer, would help in deciding pacing and market structure. A market that is moving up or down at an average of 2 pts per minute should have a different structure to a market that is moving at 10 pts per minute. Yes, you can get a feel for it by just looking at the chart, but it is nice to have a specific number. For example, I have a 50 lots per minute cut off level for trading. If it goes below this I stop trading. If the price is moving at 2 pts per minute, then I will decide that for it to make the next resistance level up, I need to be more patient and wait for it to get there. Also maybe I should not panic and think it will suddenly move against me. As long as the tickometer stays constant then there is no need to close a trade. Just hypothecating really, but you get the jist.
 
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