one more push
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What happened to dc2000 ?
Most probably got bored of the thread and people asking him how he did his trading. He's seen it all before and most likely just likes a bit of banter to while away the quiet hours of trading. I hope he will be back again some day, but for now he is probably elsewhere hunting down Wall Street and calling his/her bluff.
Maybe he is having a Scarlet Pimpernel moment, but whatever he is doing I hope
he is well and enjoying life.
What a messy start to the day. We had a nice downtrend from the open, into a sideways consolidation, that should have continued down. Instead it reversed, but the reversal ran out of steam. The volume then died and we are now drifting up until the ZEW at 10am.
The ES hit 1300 this morning and bounced off it. Maybe the market wasn't quite ready for that, and the bounce up from the Chinese GDP data overnight has caught everyone off balance. I think traders wanted it to pullback but it hasnt happened. Let's see if there is a reversal after 10am.
The ES hit 1300 this morning and bounced off it. Maybe the market wasn't quite ready for that, and the bounce up from the Chinese GDP data overnight has caught everyone off balance. I think traders wanted it to pullback but it hasnt happened. Let's see if there is a reversal after 10am.
Mark, was up £200 at 8:15am, and have given it all back since. I expected the consolidation to end in a continuation of the downtrend. When it reversed, I reluctantly went long and then I scratched when it fizzled.
On the hourly chart, we should get a pullback to 38%=5636 or 50%=5621, but it isn't happening right now.
So that was a 20 point start which was a good chunk of the move, well done.
I struggled a bit with the Fibs this morning. It was the flat afternoon yesterday that had me thinking. I used the same one as you and also a smaller one from the afternoon. I had 5638 Fut & 5680 Cash for a pullback to start maybe looking to go long. That was 38% on the larger fib, 61.8% on the smaller.
I have 5740 as possible resistance, so just below 5700 for futures.
Also looking to see if the double top could hold.
barjon
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aye, the overnighters had the best of it.
I chanced the 8:30 which almost went, but is now ticking along as the 9:00 came into play (a tad early). I'll prob kill it or hedge it around 10:00 since that's a potential reversal time. I've got a few equities coming into play in the main stuff so that's got most of my attention.
I chanced the 8:30 which almost went, but is now ticking along as the 9:00 came into play (a tad early). I'll prob kill it or hedge it around 10:00 since that's a potential reversal time. I've got a few equities coming into play in the main stuff so that's got most of my attention.
Attachments
It's relatively easy to catch the trend at the open. The price action is relatively smooth and deliberate, but I still only trade it for small targets early on. The next thing is to recognise when the market has broken down, and to sit on your hands until the action is clear. That takes patience and discipline, which you have to have to be a decent trader.
Let's see if we get a reversal at 10am. There's a double top being tested right now on the FTSE. My rules for these are to enter on the first tick lower than the low of the 5 min candle that forms the double top. You can enter on a limit at the top, but sometimes it blows right through and stops you out.
Yes definitely has been a sit on the hands job. The double top at the moment looks like its holding. Your entry is a bit more refined than mine. But I don't mind going offside for a bit
We will more than likely have a active afternoon session. The US will be putting in a nice gap.
Yes definitely has been a sit on the hands job. The double top at the moment looks like its holding. Your entry is a bit more refined than mine. But I don't mind going offside for a bit
We will more than likely have a active afternoon session. The US will be putting in a nice gap.
It does look like it's holding and may even breakout to the upside. As for letting it go offside for a bit, I tend to have tight stops and wouldn't let it break the high by more than 4 or 5 pts before my stop would be hit. If it does break out, I would enter on a continuation up after it has retested the breakout price. As for targets right now, I'd let the ES be my guide and close all longs if the ES hit 1308 which is the 161.8% extension on the 1 hr chart.
As I type it does look like it is finally drifting down. We are 24 mins after the data and if it was going to follow through it would have done it by now. As for downside target, on the 5 min chart, 20 EMA is at 73.5, 50% is at 67.8, 61.8% is at 64.3. I wouldn't be keeping any short for lower than 64.3. I would re-enter short if it did pullback and then continue back down.
Yes, I got caught by that yesterday too. But as we trade the FTSE we have to trade what we see, and if the FTSE doesn't want to follow we have to accept that and trade as if the CAC and DAX don't exist. Hard to suspend belief sometimes.
barjon
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Martin (et al)
I was a sort of late arrival to the thread so, to clear my mind, do you (et al) do your analysis and trade on the futures (if so what did you make of my post http://www.trade2win.com/boards/uk-indices/120172-anyone-scalping-ftse-futures-599.html#post1766458 ) ? I know mornington seemed to take the hump a bit that so much discussion centred around the cash - which seems reasonable given the thread title - and I wouldn't want to irritate others on here.
jon
DaddyJohn
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Hi BJ.. you get a mixture.. but it is expected that you state what prices you mean... I think this is a hangover from when DC was posting as he always posted cash prices.. I think this was because he always did his technical analysis on the cash charts even though he traded futures..
I am happy to keep it to futures prices.. but dont really mind as long as people are clear if they want to trade cash.. we have to remember that many new traders only can afford a SB platform and so they will be trading the SB FTSE 100 rolling index... which quotes cash prices but tracks the futures when cash is closed.
