Advice from a LOSER

jiggly said:
ok then so where does one draw the line,

how should the transition be made from paper trading to live trading?

should be the same as stated, provided you started off OK as well...

overall emotions shouldn't change very much, if at all...I know it may be tough to keep it on an "even keel".....but the monetary aspect has to be taken out of the equation. Worry more about making winning trades, not how much money you can potentially make if stuff is going X, Y, & Z...with winning trades, the rest will take care of itself.
 
jiggly said:
ok then so where does one draw the line,

how should the transition be made from paper trading to live trading?

Click the link just below my name regarding trading journals. Those posts explain how to make the transition.

This debate goes on intermittently but perpetually, with pretty much the same people saying the same things. Learn what paper trading is supposed to be and what it's supposed to accomplish, then decide whether or not you want to take advantage of its benefits.

Db
 
dbphoenix said:
Click the link just below my name regarding trading journals. Those posts explain how to make the transition.

This debate goes on intermittently but perpetually, with pretty much the same people saying the same things. Learn what paper trading is supposed to be and what it's supposed to accomplish, then decide whether or not you want to take advantage of its benefits.

Db

Db,

I have just read you post about "Stages of a Trader". Excellent and so impossibly accurate!!
I would say that I am at about Stage Five: The Inwardly-Bound Stage
 
I think there's a good message in here somewhere for newbies. If you are thinking of going live after paper trading - open up a demo account and post your trades and accounts to a t2w journal. The thought/worry of knowing other people will be watching you should be akin to trading your own money.
 
Bon Voyage....the journey begins by taking the first steps.. Good Luck.

ducados said:
Well that’s what I like. Go out on a high note for my last trading day for a while.
I had a confirmed sell signal at 16:00 GMT on the DOW. I waited until it pulled back to the 34 EMA on the 30 min chart and shorted at 12219. I have just taken the exit at 12115 because it is a strong support level from 3 days ago. +104 points.

Finally a bit of discipline after all of this time. I must have been a complete idiot before. But also there was no real emotion on this trade as I new I am getting out for a while.

Good luck to all of you. Speak again when I come back.

Regards

Ducados

I had a similar experience to you about 11 years ago. After a great run trading equities I quit the job and bought a seat to trade futures and blew myself up within a few months.

I have been trading since I was 22 years old when I bought my first option.

17 years now down the track and I recently took a £130 K out of a single trade after a years worth of escalating positive results, it suddenly has clicked. I don't tell you this to impress, many will have done heaps better and for longer, I mention it to encourage you, that the rewards can be won, trading is one of the most compelling and tricky things to do well, and my journey has been one of personal self discovery.

It has truly taken me this long to feel comfortable with my plan. Despite a number of good spells in the black, I realistically have only become significantly in the black on my entire trading history in the last 2 years, and have written net cheques to SB companies & stock brokers in disgust at myself for 15 years out of the total 17years.

Smarter people have reached success a lot sooner. Don't recoil at your own failings and conclude the Holy Grail is automated systems, it wasn't for me.

In the end what works with me is very specific set ups with built in money management levels which confirm when wrong, I also exit if expected behaviour does not occur in a short timeframe, It suits my mental posture as drawdown physcology is a know weakness of my own, even relative to that of other traders. Despite this there are still countless other things I feel I need to refine and learn, the journey never ends.


Incidentally, the minute I left the day to day screens, I started making money again more regularly, till I once again blew it as I got more 'reckless confidence'.

It doesn't feel like work to do nothing when a full time screen jockey, but most of what is going on intraday is not easily tradeable. I could not help but get involved, intra-day did not suit me and I expect it suits alot less people than most people realise.

I would suggest you take a step back and look at weekly and monthly charts and trade specific set ups with predetemined entry levels, targets and stops that you write down before entering and adhere to regardless to regain your confidence in your ability to 'adhere'. Enter them all when placing the trade and forget about it, go to work, you are most emotionally balanced when square in the markets, after entering you attain an immediate physcholigical bias and look for affirmations for your position and procrastinate on warning signs.

The suggestion to Blog what you are doing or keep a trading diary is very useful for self discovery, negative patterns will be easier to discover and recognise.

Trade very small and try build a run of winners. When you are in the zone and back as a trader you will get the opportunity to increase scale, for now you just have to develop form, no hitting the ball 'out of the park'.

Something I also feel the need to do to counteract the 'limits of self ' is to withdraw large parts of big winnings as I have regularly run up to a certain account size before feeling I could become more 'active and flexible' about criteria and getting involved with more intraday type trades.

This keeps the concept value of the money, instead of just pips on the screen, many will have a certain level that they find as an equity ceiling they do not exceed, including Schwager of market wizards fame, while the level varies the net result is usually the same.

I trade best when I have to be frugal with account equity, especially as I will never fund an account again as part of my personal contract to myself as a trader.

Good Luck, your post shows humility and a desire to learn, like the church, your best 'development work' is done when in the gutter.

PS. as an aside one of the most dangerous things is positive enforcement for negative behaviour.

It is best in the long run that you did not make losses back when you doubled up.
 
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ducados said:
Hi Neil

I agree with you. I have used Tradestation and it is a very good system for designing automated strategies. I have an IT background that includes programming so I found it very easy to get to grips with. I particulay like the continues contract concept. This makes it very easy to back test 2 years worth of data on a single instrument. I have never used it as a broker so I do not know if it is any good.

....

Let me give you a gift. This is a good candidate that I am working on for a strategy. It’s not complete and still needs work to define the rules and back test. But it may point you in the right direction. The key to any good strategy is keeping it very simple then test and add filters. Anyway, see how you get on.

Chart setup:
FTSE or DOW JONES futures on a 30min or 5min time frame bar chart
MACD. Fast time 21, Slow Time 81, MA Lengh 9, Type: Exp
(if DOW set the chart times to be 13:30 - 21:00 GMT, not 24 Hour)

Rules:
Use the crossovers for your entrys. At very least it will get you on the right side of the market for a while. On a 30min chart you need to hold position over night. But results look better.

Good luck.

.


Ducados,

I tried coding up the following EasyLanguage script based on your recommendation. I assumed an automatic exit after 10 bars, with stops, and zero trading costs and slippage. The code is at the bottom of this page.

For back-testing I don't know how to back-test the S&P500 for more than around 200 days because the S&P EMini future for December only started trading in June. So I had to use Dow Jones shares for the longer term back-testing.

First of all I ran it with a daily chart for the past 10 years for stock "General Motors". This produced a profit factor of 1.26, in which a total of 94 trades over this period produced a net profit of $3000.
Once you subtract trading costs and slippage this is not much at all.

I ran the back test again with GM with a 30-minute chart over 200 days. This produced a profit factor of 0.78 which is actually making a loss (1.0 is break-even).

I tried the back-test again with the S&P 500 E-Mini December 06 contract with a 30-minute chart (including overnight trades). This produced a profit factor of 0.70 which is losing even more money ($4300). This involved 178 trades of a single contract.

I ran it for a 5-minute chart for 100 days, and the profit factor here was 0.81 with 804 trades, and a net loss of $5200.


So at this stage, without further research, it seems to me that your strategy does not work long term as I have implemented it. And this being the case no amount of discipline or money management or "stick to the plan" emotion-free methods will prevent you from losing money.

What are your thoughts on this?

Thanks, Neil


Input: Length(10), BSE(20), LengthADX(10), FastMA(21), SlowMA(81), MALength(9),
SD(0.5),Length1(10),Length2(35);

Vars: imacd(0), signal(0), MACDDiff(0), iadx(0);

imacd = MACD(Close, FastMA, SlowMA);
signal = XAverage(imacd,MALength);
MACDDiff = imacd - signal;

{
iadx = ADX(LengthADX);
}
iadx = 0; {always true}

{**** ENTRIES ****}
if CurrentBar > 2 and MarketPosition = 0 and iadx < 20 and MACDDiff crosses over 0 then
Buy("Buy1") this bar On Close;

if CurrentBar > 2 and MarketPosition = 0 and iadx < 20 and MACDDiff crosses under 0 then
SellShort("Sell1") this bar On Close;


{**** EXITS ****}
If BarsSinceEntry=BSE Then
Begin
Sell From Entry ("Buy1") This Bar;
BuyToCover From Entry ("Sell1") This Bar;
End;


{
if MACDDiff crosses under 0 then
Sell From Entry ("Buy1") This Bar;

if MACDDiff crosses over 0 then
BuyToCover From Entry ("Sell1") This Bar;
}

{**** STOPS ****}
Sell From Entry ("Buy1") Next Bar at$ Close -
2*StdDev(Close,10) Stop;

BuyToCover From Entry ("Sell1") Next Bar at$ Close +
2*StdDev(Close,10) Stop;
 
Demo account is useful if you are completely new in future trading, you need to practice to learn how to place orders, reading charts. I would say it is not the same feeling to trade live vs demo. My personal experience is that I traded very good in a demo a/c for 2 weeks, then I can't wait to open live a/c because I feel I am so so smart. In a 50k practice a/c, I made 10k fake money in less than 2 weeks.

After I opened my real a/c, I started live trading. I was confident, and I made 5500 in 3 days trading. My confidence over explored, I feel I will make 250k in a year and I will be very rich soon. I even told my friends that I become a full time trader and I will be a millionair within 5 years.

But I had a very bad day nov 21. I traded 2 big sizes for my a/c, I can't buy more, because system rejected. I become panic and I don't want to blow up my total a/c. I sold all my positions at a 13k loss in one day.

I have 20k in my a/c when I opened, now it is 12.6k. I lost close to 8k, including giving up my winning 5.5k. I felt really bad and I felt miserable. My mistakes was the following:

I didn't take loss when the loss is small.

I average down. I exceed my buying power.

Emotion is a big factor, since I have been gone though feelings like: hope, pray, hope, panic, ... etc.

One thing I learn is I reduced my sizes . I traded much smaller sizes and of course, I want to get back even. But getting back even has an effect on my future trading because I don't want to loose and I didn't trade logically.

I still trading afterwards, but I feel I don't have much confidence right now. I probably will write another post to see how I am doing by the end of Nov.

I feel trading is difficult because it is not easy to put away our human emotions, but I am not a quitter either, at least not right now. I plan to give myself time to improve and learn from it. I think most succefully trader has experienced some sort of big looses. You don't learn unless you made the mistakes yourself. No matter how the books tell you to do, we don't feel the pain unless we experienced it. Once you did, you have 2 choices. Quit because it is too painful; or you learned from it and get better.

It takes years to be sucessful in anything, so I feel I need to stick to it. Keep trying till I make it.

I do it full-time, so my pressure is high if I don't make it. But if someone else make it, I will too.
 
Hi to all you Newbie’s

I just want to pass on some of my experiences to you from the last 2 tears.
First of all. I have failed. I have lost thousands of pounds making ALL of the mistakes and broken all of the rules for successful trading. I had read all of the rules so many times before, all most in every trading book and article I have ever read. But I WAS a very stubborn person with a huge ego so ignored them all. IT COST ME BIG TIME.

Keys to my failure:

1) EGO
Until now I have always been very successful in everything I do. The possibility of failure never even occurred to me. Therefore I gave the markets no respect. I always new best.

2) FOOLS RUSH IN
After only a period of 1 year day trading as and when I had time, maybe a few trades a week. I was the man. I new it all. So I gave up a highly paid job in the city to day trade full time. Did I really no what I was doing? NO.

3) SIZE
Why should I start small when I can trade 20 contracts each time and risk thousands on each trade? Maybe it would have been better with just 1 contract to begin with. Sure, I would not make my millions. But I would not lose so much. Now I am down to trading 1 contract because that all I can afford.

4) TRADING PLAN
Plan? What plan? I have had lots. I was maybe inventing 2 a month. Are they any good? Yes I think that 70% of them are not bad. But how would I know? I never used any of them except in hindsight.

5) DISCIPLINE
HAHAHAHA that’s a joke. Everyone knows the key to being a successful trader apart from having a good trading plan is discipline. Run your profits and Stop your losses. Stick to the rules 100%. Could I stop a loss? Never. Could I stop a profit? Always.

6) LEARN FROM YOUR MISTAKES
I always learnt from my mistakes. Until the next time I made the same mistake, time and time again.

Well, that’s me. Now I am out of the game for the moment and I feel like a complete ****!!! I have zero confidence, little money left and I am quite depressed. I start my new 9-5 job on Monday for less money than I gave up 2 years ago. SAD??? NO, STUPPID. It’s all my own fault.

I don’t want to put anyone off but know the realities of what you are getting into. It’s a great life but its not easy money. The market can be very unforgiving and does not suffer fools. Make sure you know what you are doing before you commit your cash and start small. Build on sucsess over time and gain experinence. In my view the most effective way to follow a trading plan and apply strict discipline is 100% automation.

I will be back. But more humble, more disciplined and 100% automated.

GOOD LUCK.

GOOD POST MATE!, i can tell it happened the same to me, but i never gave up, maybe i am more stubborn than you, i already have a succesfull method. It pays backmost of the times so at the end i win.
Good for you mate.(y)
 
Wise guy!....., why should he risk his money if doesnt feel sure yet?.
I guess more than one from this forum should follow hes example....
I´m just guessing...
 
Demo account is useful if you are completely new in future trading, you need to practice to learn how to place orders, reading charts. I would say it is not the same feeling to trade live vs demo. My personal experience is that I traded very good in a demo a/c for 2 weeks, then I can't wait to open live a/c because I feel I am so so smart. In a 50k practice a/c, I made 10k fake money in less than 2 weeks.

After I opened my real a/c, I started live trading. I was confident, and I made 5500 in 3 days trading. My confidence over explored, I feel I will make 250k in a year and I will be very rich soon. I even told my friends that I become a full time trader and I will be a millionair within 5 years.

But I had a very bad day nov 21. I traded 2 big sizes for my a/c, I can't buy more, because system rejected. I become panic and I don't want to blow up my total a/c. I sold all my positions at a 13k loss in one day.

I have 20k in my a/c when I opened, now it is 12.6k. I lost close to 8k, including giving up my winning 5.5k. I felt really bad and I felt miserable. My mistakes was the following:

I didn't take loss when the loss is small.

I average down. I exceed my buying power.

Emotion is a big factor, since I have been gone though feelings like: hope, pray, hope, panic, ... etc.

One thing I learn is I reduced my sizes . I traded much smaller sizes and of course, I want to get back even. But getting back even has an effect on my future trading because I don't want to loose and I didn't trade logically.

I still trading afterwards, but I feel I don't have much confidence right now. I probably will write another post to see how I am doing by the end of Nov.

I feel trading is difficult because it is not easy to put away our human emotions, but I am not a quitter either, at least not right now. I plan to give myself time to improve and learn from it. I think most succefully trader has experienced some sort of big looses. You don't learn unless you made the mistakes yourself. No matter how the books tell you to do, we don't feel the pain unless we experienced it. Once you did, you have 2 choices. Quit because it is too painful; or you learned from it and get better.

It takes years to be sucessful in anything, so I feel I need to stick to it. Keep trying till I make it.

I do it full-time, so my pressure is high if I don't make it. But if someone else make it, I will too.

Well - at least you haven't been peesing your money up the wall for umpteen years or more. You recognise the enemy as you, and you seem to be psychologically well balanced enough to go back to the drawing board to plan another approach to the market. Keep up the good work and work on the mental health bit (ie. leaving your ego at the door - no easy task for some) Good luck(y)
 
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