10p Gold Limits Stops Averaging Bad Trades & not Giving a Flying *** About Convention

[Mr. Charts]

Re: 10p Gold Limits Stops Averaging Bad Trades & not Giving a Flying *** About Conven

Good stuff !

 

[counter_violent]

Re: 10p Gold Limits Stops Averaging Bad Trades & not Giving a Flying *** About Conven

Complete list of 15 trades updated doc.
We will call this series 1
Flat

 

[piker]

Re: 10p Gold Limits Stops Averaging Bad Trades & not Giving a Flying *** About Conven

What's ETX like? Generally. BTW WTG

 

[counter_violent]

Re: 10p Gold Limits Stops Averaging Bad Trades & not Giving a Flying *** About Conven

What's ETX like? Generally. BTW WTG

cheers

Well as i've mentioned before..I like it and you or anyone else can free trial it by applying online...they even credit account with 100 quid which can be used as margin. Ive spoken or communicated with 4 people who work there since opening account and everything is fine. Not sure what else to say really.

 

[trendie]

Re: 10p Gold Limits Stops Averaging Bad Trades & not Giving a Flying *** About Conven

Complete list of 15 trades updated doc.
We will call this series 1
Flat

ok.
15 trades. no losses.
your average profit-take seems to hover around £5-£8 and £12-£16.
so, perhaps, you take multiple positions, and take short-term scalps to bag some money, and leave a secondary position as a "runner".

now, of the 15 trades, 2 buys taken on the 11th, were allowed to go underwater by some 15-20 pips, which equates to £15-£20. so, at some point, you had an adverse position on 2 trades, which represented around £-35, which is the sum of several winning trades.

without knowing whether you would EVER take a loss, its difficult to assess catastrophic losses, and impact on margin, etc.

But, I think I can understand the reasoning. If you are buy-minded, you keep taking all relevant buy-conditions, until relevant sell-conditions arise. the aggregate of winning buys and winning sells gives you your edge.

allowing stops to be taken removes the opportunity to close out at an "aggregated better" position, than allowing a spike to take you out of an arbitrary single "bad-luck" trade.
I say this, because you went on to take a better buy position lower down, which closed for a profit (reducing the pressure on the 2 losing trades), whilst allowing the losing trades to move back to parity, and eventually a profit.

the above is not a criticism, I wouldnt be so stupid; but please think of it as an attempt to unravel the thinking behind the trades; an attempt to understand what you mean by managing the trade.

OR..

you're tossing coins to trade.

 

[counter_violent]

Re: 10p Gold Limits Stops Averaging Bad Trades & not Giving a Flying *** About Conven

ok.
15 trades. no losses.
your average profit-take seems to hover around £5-£8 and £12-£16.
so, perhaps, you take multiple positions, and take short-term scalps to bag some money, and leave a secondary position as a "runner".

Yes the strat can run anything from a single position...lets say 60 point limit profit to multiple positions. This is to say if we are long then a limit take profit is set...if price hits it we made 60 x 10p £6.00. Obviously the same would apply if we were short. All this assumes is it's a 1st position trade. This would be ground zero on the dynamic grid ( I don't know what else to call it.....see chart attached ) If we get lucky we just keep taking wins off 1st position trades. (not at all likely is it !)

Lets add in some rough textbook type stats. (I'm not big on numbers so they may be entirely wrong)
Prices range 70% of the time
Prices break out 30% of the time

So assuming these figs are acceptable we can then be fairly confident that the 70% category will present no problems staying with a trade (regardless of the price action within this range) until the limit take profit is hit. Or depending on the size of the range we may have to add a second position, again with a limit take profit. Fairly safe stuff if we accept the figs.

Moving on to the 30% category...lets assume a 50/50 split for long / short breakouts.
Of the 15% in one direction (say long breakout) lets again assume that 50% of these are false breakouts. ie price breaks out, travels xxx distance and returns back to our 70% range. This leaves us with 7.5% problem trades (if we are trading in the wrong direction)...where price breaks out and keeps on going....this is where the dynamic nature of the grid comes in to play. Our add position points need to be progressively harder to trigger any additional trade. Remember we are committed to one directional add ins because of the existing open positions. (Cant open long and short positions silmultaniously)

now, of the 15 trades, 2 buys taken on the 11th, were allowed to go underwater by some 15-20 pips, which equates to £15-£20. so, at some point, you had an adverse position on 2 trades, which represented around £-35, which is the sum of several winning trades.

Correct so position 1 was greater offside than position 2...also I added position 3 at the $1114.50 level and all three open positions were in drawdown to the tune of approx £40.00

Position 3 has a bigger limit take profit than position 2 has and again for position 1 which is fixed at 60 points in this instance. So if price comes back, then position 3 take profit helps to negate/ offset drawdown on positions 1 and 2 ( in other words the limit has to be better than the mean of the 3 open positions)

We can put some actual numbers to these long positions.
Position1 long @ $1130.00
Position2 long @ $1125.00
Position3 long @ $1114.50
Giving an average a shade over $1123.00
So position 3 take profit was set at $1126.00 ish from memory.

Position 3 triggered the take profit and promptly reversed putting position 1 and 2 back into drawdown. Price reached similar/same position 3 entry level and was triggered for a second time. Price then marched north and once again triggered the take profit level.

without knowing whether you would EVER take a loss, its difficult to assess catastrophic losses, and impact on margin, etc.

Account size dependant we could have levels 4 5 6 etc but the further out we go and the more likely it is that there are extreme moves across multiple instruments ( we couldn't claim we were unaware of extreme events) This is where we always have the manual intervention choices. Systematic type trading is all well and good....but for me I would always want the manual overide button option

But, I think I can understand the reasoning. If you are buy-minded, you keep taking all relevant buy-conditions, until relevant sell-conditions arise. the aggregate of winning buys and winning sells gives you your edge.

All entry levels on the dynamic grid overlay can be worked out in advance...as can the take profit levels for each of the positions. To quote our old m8 Socco..."everything is known in advance"

allowing stops to be taken removes the opportunity to close out at an "aggregated better" position, than allowing a spike to take you out of an arbitrary single "bad-luck" trade.
I say this, because you went on to take a better buy position lower down, which closed for a profit (reducing the pressure on the 2 losing trades), whilst allowing the losing trades to move back to parity, and eventually a profit.

the above is not a criticism, I wouldnt be so stupid; but please think of it as an attempt to unravel the thinking behind the trades; an attempt to understand what you mean by managing the trade.

Well the use of stops would hinder this type of strat and they simply take away the ability to manage the overall trade, made up of numerous position entries.

However, it would be possible to devise alternative criteria for managing like killing dead any add in positions that are not helping the overall positions.

OR..

We could always have plan B ....

Request a lend of Socco's weekend rolled up copy of the FT (to swat away any swans that may appear)...as long as there were no strings attached...or worse still, ropes and gags

you're tossing coins to trade.

.

 

[counter_violent]

Re: 10p Gold Limits Stops Averaging Bad Trades & not Giving a Flying *** About Conven

I'd just like at this point to issue a warning...words of caution.

This is not a strategy for newbies to try out

There are just too many pitfalls with this kind of approach for the amateur hobby non committed trader.

This is a work in progress done with minute stakes on a very small trading pot.

Even if it would scale up to a pound/point you would need possibly a 5k account to operate it.

We have only covered the bare bones mechanics of it so far.



cheers.

 

[piker]

Re: 10p Gold Limits Stops Averaging Bad Trades & not Giving a Flying *** About Conven

Are you sim trading this strategy?

 

[counter_violent]

Re: 10p Gold Limits Stops Averaging Bad Trades & not Giving a Flying *** About Conven

Are you sim trading this strategy?

Wash your mouth out !

Check out the docs provided. They contain all the details from the live account. Nothing is hidden like most other posters do. It's all there in black and white warts n all.

Series 2 may start Sunday night/ Monday morning.


I need more than 6 members to P M me over the weekend and give me a direction they would like me to first trade on series2. I will tally them up and whichever comes out on top will be the direction of the first trade. LONG or SHORT. Can't say fairer than that !

 

[counter_violent]

Re: 10p Gold Limits Stops Averaging Bad Trades & not Giving a Flying *** About Conven

Below are 2 charts. The 4hr chart shows the detail.
Red line is ground zero...our starting point when we are flat.
Blue lines are add intervals, each being twice the distance from that last.
Orange lines are add intervals, each being twice the distance from the last.
Dotted blue lines are the take profit levels where 2 or more positions are open.
Dotted orange lines are the take profit levels where 2or more positions are open.

If a trade taken from red line ground zero hits the first take profit then we become flat and can re-position the grid ready for the next new trade. 50% of new trades should be winners. The first take profit is the first solid line on the grid. In this case set at $6 or 60 points.

The daily chart just shows where a level 4 entry would take us and shows the dotted take profit levels for the same.

I have no intention of letting a position run to a level 4 entry as the drawdown on the other 3 open positions would be horrendous. Rather I would find an alternative way of managing.

 

[piker]

Re: 10p Gold Limits Stops Averaging Bad Trades & not Giving a Flying *** About Conven

I just wondered, that's all, I read on their site that they offer 100 credit when opening an account, firm I am with only credit depending on how much you have with them.

Wash your mouth out !

Check out the docs provided. They contain all the details from the live account. Nothing is hidden like most other posters do. It's all there in black and white warts n all.

Series 2 may start Sunday night/ Monday morning.


I need more than 6 members to P M me over the weekend and give me a direction they would like me to first trade on series2. I will tally them up and whichever comes out on top will be the direction of the first trade. LON

G or SHORT. Can't say fairer than that !

 

[counter_violent]

Re: 10p Gold Limits Stops Averaging Bad Trades & not Giving a Flying *** About Conven

Piker, you asked if I was sim trading this strategy.
The answer is no.
All live trades as per the docs provided. Clearly they have not been read.


Only one PM thus far re direction of initial trade to set off series 2 trades.

 

[trendie]

Re: 10p Gold Limits Stops Averaging Bad Trades & not Giving a Flying *** About Conven

piker, you asked if i was sim trading this strategy.
The answer is no.
All live trades as per the docs provided. Clearly they have not been read.


only one pm thus far re direction of initial trade to set off series 2 trades.

buy

 

[counter_violent]

Re: 10p Gold Limits Stops Averaging Bad Trades & not Giving a Flying *** About Conven

I wonder how many are secretly hoping this will blow up!

If series 2 keeps adding wins to increase the bank then in series 3.... I will implement level 4 trades should they arise. Drawdown at a level 4 entry would be £102.00

Money is the tool we need to trade ...it's just numbers...It's not my money...i'm happy to lend it out...as long as when it comes back it is with interest.


Still need more calls on direction before tonight Long or Short

Grid has been adjusted to $1113.00 roughly the friday night close.

 

[trendie]

Re: 10p Gold Limits Stops Averaging Bad Trades & not Giving a Flying *** About Conven

I wonder how many are secretly hoping this will blow up!

If series 2 keeps adding wins to increase the bank then in series 3.... I will implement level 4 trades should they arise. Drawdown at a level 4 entry would be £102.00

Money is the tool we need to trade ...it's just numbers...It's not my money...i'm happy to lend it out...as long as when it comes back it is with interest.


Still need more calls on direction before tonight Long or Short

Grid has been adjusted to $1113.00 roughly the friday night close.

hi CV;

re: secret blowing:
its the tall-poppy syndrome; some people simply hate others doing well. the irony is, if they hoped you did well, they would have a blueprint to follow to replicate the success. weird things, humans!

strat:
I have been giving this some more thought. if you are, essentially, adding to losers, there must be an exit point, where you would HAVE to accept an eventual loss.

the thing about this method is that it appears to be a reversion-to-mean method. maybe the grid is ATR-derived. but, in a trend move/breakout of range, if the move is a shift in sentiment, the price at which you could bail out at BE may never arise.

also, if, for example, you were buy-biased, and the market fell, you may feel obligated to continue buying to "manage the trade", even though your analysis says the market is now sell-biased. under these circumstances, you are trading to control an existing (and now proven wrong) position, rather than trade with the new direction. hope that makes sense.

commendable that you are showing no losses, so far. but when they come, they will be mega. this has impacts on emotional balance of the trader.

I want you to succeed, so I can replicate. meantime, I will take my losses.
however, I will have a deeper look at this grid-malrkey in this comng, non-trading, week.

 

[counter_violent]

Re: 10p Gold Limits Stops Averaging Bad Trades & not Giving a Flying *** About Conven

hi CV;

re: secret blowing:
its the tall-poppy syndrome; some people simply hate others doing well. the irony is, if they hoped you did well, they would have a blueprint to follow to replicate the success. weird things, humans!

indeed

strat:
I have been giving this some more thought. if you are, essentially, adding to losers, there must be an exit point, where you would HAVE to accept an eventual loss.

the thing about this method is that it appears to be a reversion-to-mean method. maybe the grid is ATR-derived. but, in a trend move/breakout of range, if the move is a shift in sentiment, the price at which you could bail out at BE may never arise.

also, if, for example, you were buy-biased, and the market fell, you may feel obligated to continue buying to "manage the trade", even though your analysis says the market is now sell-biased. under these circumstances, you are trading to control an existing (and now proven wrong) position, rather than trade with the new direction. hope that makes sense.

Yes I fully accept that this is the crux of the problem. If we accept the rough stats from an earlier post then 92.5% of positions will cause us no problems and will keep adding valuble capital to the account balance. Additionally adding in a high % of wins helps us with any future margin requirements. But all of this may not be enough as you quite rightly point out.

So the question is what can we do to deal with the 7.5% of positions that may give us problems.
There will be lots of solutions we can look at to further reduce the 7.5% potential problem figure. Ideally each reduction will halve the problem until we reach a point where it is statistically insignificant. Or better yet...solved.

It would be good at this point if some stats could be produced. But i'll leave that to the statesticians amongst us.

commendable that you are showing no losses, so far. but when they come, they will be mega. this has impacts on emotional balance of the trader.

I want you to succeed, so I can replicate. meantime, I will take my losses.
however, I will have a deeper look at this grid-malrkey in this coming, non-trading, week.

Thanks for voting new direction and taking an interest.
cv

 

[counter_violent]

Re: 10p Gold Limits Stops Averaging Bad Trades & not Giving a Flying *** About Conven

Ok I have had 4 votes in and all of them were buy side. So decision is made...when market opens tonight I will be long.

cheers
cv

 

[Paul71]

Re: 10p Gold Limits Stops Averaging Bad Trades & not Giving a Flying *** About Conven

It's about time I sullied the journals section so here goes.
To set the ball rolling here are the last 2 days results.
Don't worry if you don't understand what i'm doing...cos I don't know either
There are no rules. Make it up as we go.

C_V, you've let me down, why have you started your first journal in this manner? Where are you going with this one mate?

This is what i want to see in a journal.

1) A decent starting balance, wtf is one hundred quid all about? Try 50k or around that mark.

2) Time. 6 months minimum.

3) Don't try to prove that certain technical set-ups work, pin-bars, mean reversion, IBs, SR, etc etc, we all know the score.

4) Do it your way, take no notice of people who want to see stops and certain risk:rewards etc etc.

5) Make the lolly! If you are not making some meaningful amounts of money...what's the point?


Up the ante C_V, make a proper journal, then you really have done your bit for this site.

 

[counter_violent]

Re: 10p Gold Limits Stops Averaging Bad Trades & not Giving a Flying *** About Conven

Paul, are you here of your own accord or were you sent ?

 

[Paul71]

Re: 10p Gold Limits Stops Averaging Bad Trades & not Giving a Flying *** About Conven

Paul, are you here of your own accord or were you sent ?

You cynical bugger. FWIW, i like your style of trading, i just can't understand the 100 quid bit.


Edit: I can't believe you are listening to, 'Trendie'. All these years and he still hasn't found what he's looking for...U2 (Joshua Tree).