100k to 200m in 10 years

[bedsit]

When I first posted the question, I was genuinely interested if they can teach somebody how to become a consistently profitable trader and make 113.84% per year for 10 years.

Then I did some calculations and purely based on that concluded that the claim is far fetched - they need to outperform the best traders out there.

Personally I manage to get more than 10% per week sometimes, but this is a rare thing (happened few weeks ago).

Through my experience it's not impossible to get some nice profits so far as smaller amounts are traded and if one controls their emotions and apply strict discipline all the time while trading. I've achieved these results only after some time (trial and error).

About somebody being trained in a short space of time to be consistently profitable over period of 10 years with that sort of returns - I'm highly sceptical. Doesn't make sense - if the trainer has been already using that system - let's say for 17 years, that would make him the richest man in the world (according to my calculations)

 

[bedsit]

Doesn't make sense - if the trainer has been already using that system - let's say for 17 years, that would make him the richest man in the world (according to my calculations)

Sorry - my mistake. For him to be the richest man in the world, he would need to use the system for a bit more than 18 years (not 17 years)

 

[Lodian1019]

Most things that have been mentioned here, can be done or have been done. It is to against human nature to say that we "can't" do that or to put other people down by saying they can't yet at the same time we have to recognise the mathematical probability if happening. Just because "you" cannot do it or your immediate circle cannot do it does not mean no one else can't.

Lodian

 

[bedsit]

Nice to have positive expectations, but one should be realistic at the same time - very important in trading.

I'm trying to come with a balanced view based on personal experience, some statistics (best performers), success rate of retail traders (less than 3%) and compound profit. I haven't been a great fan of wishful thinking for some time (must admit I was a great fan at the beginning of my trading career)

At the same time I can see why trainers try to paint a rosy picture - they don't want to shoot themselves in the foot, do they?

 

[LiamH]

Nice to have positive expectations, but one should be realistic at the same time - very important in trading.

I'm trying to come with a balanced view based on personal experience, some statistics (best performers), success rate of retail traders (less than 3%) and compound interest. I haven't been a great fan of wishful thinking for some time (must admit I was a great fan at the beginning of my trading career)

At the same time I can see why trainers try to paint a rosy picture - they don't want to shoot themselves in the foot, do they?

I don't think a 100% compounded annual return on a small leveraged account is unrealistic at all. There are a lot who say it is but they have just said it... I have seen at least 6 T2W members post enough trades to prove that they can hit this kind of figure without breaking a sweat and then there is myfxbook which is full of verified, legitimate trading accounts showing serious returns over a year or so. So who to believe? The live calls I've seen posted in real time, the verified myfxbook accounts, my own account or the hardcore pessimists on here who have been trading since I was in nappies?

I suspect that those who say it can't be done risk like 1% of their accounts and trade with 2-300 point stops. This is fine of course but that is exactly the reason they can't hit these returns. The ones who trade successfully holding trades for a few days at most and hit 2 or 3 times their risk each week can do 100% per year without breaking a sweat.

 

[bedsit]

I don't think a 100% compounded annual return on a small leveraged account is unrealistic at all. There are a lot who say it is but they have just said it... I have seen at least 6 T2W members post enough trades to prove that they can hit this kind of figure without breaking a sweat and then there is myfxbook which is full of verified, legitimate trading accounts showing serious returns over a year or so. So who to believe? The live calls I've seen posted in real time, the verified myfxbook accounts, my own account or the hardcore pessimists on here who have been trading since I was in nappies?

I suspect that those who say it can't be done risk like 1% of their accounts and trade with 2-300 point stops. This is fine of course but that is exactly the reason they can't hit these returns. The ones who trade successfully holding trades for a few days at most and hit 2 or 3 times their risk each week can do 100% per year without breaking a sweat.

Hi Liam.

I guess it's best to keep it simple. So far as I'm concerned account's performance is the most important. Why should one care about what other people say?

In that sense may be a good idea for new traders looking for trainers to ask for at least 3 years verifiable trading record.

 

[LiamH]

Hi Liam.

I guess it's best to keep it simple. So far as I'm concerned account's performance is the most important. Why should one care about what other people say?

In that sense may be a good idea for new traders looking for trainers to ask for at least 3 years verifiable trading record.

Yeah, you're right of course. I just don't like the blanket statement which a lot of experienced guys spout as undisputable fact when it isn't.

You day trade for a living don't you? You seem quite risk averse which is cool - I wonder, if you risked 3% per trade and compounded your profits over the last year, where would your account be? Have you ever worked it out?

I probably seem obsessed with possible returns... I'm not, I just don't think what a lot of people say about it is right. My account will go where it will go and that will be what I'm capable of. If I go broke then I don't have what it takes and if I make 10% per year then that is what I make... I won't be crying myself to sleep if I'm not a millionaire by my next birthday - I have a decent job - My only goal is to trade for a living within the next few years and I plan to add cash to the account lol I'm not expecting to turn my micro account into a million.

Trading is a strange business - There are sooo many opinions here that never get backed up. There are quite a few profitable traders such as yourself who could put an end to these debates very quickly but they never do... I find this odd.

 

[bedsit]

Trading is a strange business - There are sooo many opinions here that never get backed up. There are quite a few profitable traders such as yourself who could put an end to these debates very quickly but they never do... I find this odd.

I'm just trying to help new traders eager to achieve quick success.

They would probably find my approach very boring - I risk max 2% per trade, stop trading if I suffer 4% loss, stop trading if I make more than 10% in a short time etc. Sometimes I disregard my rules, so I wouldn't say I am a good trader. So in that sense I feel uncomfortable mentioning big profits as it could mislead them to a false belief about becoming rich overnight.

There are few traders who post live calls on this forum and they are successful. One of them is an excellent trader (40% in 3 months).

On the other hand you have some hindsight traders who either want to prove how wonderful traders they are or trying to sell you something (training, indicators etc.)

 

[LiamH]

I'm just trying to help new traders eager to achieve quick success.

They would probably find my approach very boring - I risk max 2% per trade, stop trading if I suffer 4% loss, stop trading if I make more than 10% in a short time etc. Sometimes I disregard my rules, so I wouldn't say I am a good trader. So in that sense I feel uncomfortable mentioning big profits as it could mislead them to a false belief about becoming rich overnight.

There are few traders who post live calls on this forum and they are successful. One of them is an excellent trader (40% in 3 months).

On the other hand you have some hindsight traders who either want to prove how wonderful traders they are or trying to sell you something (training, indicators etc.)

I think in regards to training companies you are right. It's mostly scams, I wouldn't pay for training given the info available online.

There is a 'hindsight' trader on these boards but I'm pretty confident his charts are telling the truth - If not then I am a bad judge of character but I've found everything he's said to me has been correct and he's given some good advice so no reason to doubt that particular person.

This whole 100% per year debate though, I mean, it comes down to strategy at the end of the day. If your stops are 200 pts and you risk 2% then you must make 600 pts to make 6% so for these traders 30% per year is a good return.

Then there's you, chowclown, redart, be positive, vaco etc all posting intraday live calls and I don't keep track tbh but I am confident that you're all at least doubling your account yearly. You say you risk 2% per trade and I've seen your calls - I would place a decent sized bet that you average at least 1R each and every week of the year so then you make at least 100%?

Your original question in this thread re 100k to 200m is of course obvious, only the very best will do that due to liquidity but lets say 10k to 100k - That is do-able. And I think you know it is but don't want the confrontation involved with making such a claim.

 

[terry.tibbs]

The problem for me is not whether those people can turn 100k in 200m in 10 years but why at the same time they need to push overpriced training crap using cheap and aggressive sales techniques. Surely, being a world champ and having such a remarkable set of trading skills would not require to sell anything - not mention to lie in the adverts to market the product. I mean.... if I was able to make this sort of $$$ I would be running a fund.

 

[HowardCohodas]

The problem for me is not whether those people can turn 100k in 200m in 10 years but why at the same time they need to push overpriced training crap using cheap and aggressive sales techniques. Surely, being a world champ and having such a remarkable set of trading skills would not require to sell anything - not mention to lie in the adverts to market the product. I mean.... if I was able to make this sort of $$$ I would be running a fund.

I'm sorry to say this during the holiday season, but your first post displays an enormous amount of ignorance. See my signature item #1.

There are some who are very successful who also teach.

Not all who teach use "over the top" or untruthful advertising.

Not all education, training and coaching is overpriced.

There are some who are successful who will not manage other people's money because of personal code.

 

[DionysusToast]

I can't accept this... not because I think I will be a millionaire this time next week but because it doesn't make sense. If someone is consistently profitable, doesn't withdraw from the account and compounds profits the account will grow exponentially until liquidity becomes an issue. This is fact, not fairytale. And you don't have to be making 20% a day for this to happen lol even just a 10k account making 1% per week compounded would be a pretty tidy sum after ten years.

The reason this doesn't happen often is because people withdraw funds to live or whatever. You're either a profitable trader or you're not... If you are then the sky is the limit and if you're not then the speed of your financial death will be decided by your risk management.

Liam - it depends how the profits are made.

Let's say you have a hypothetical system that will win 99.99% of the time but where the losering trades will lose you 99.99% of your account.

You could be winning for a very long time but due to the nature of the system, the losers will wipe you out.

So - before we talk about someone with 12 months of making 10% a month, don't we actually need to examine their risk profile?

For new traders making these sums - is it not possible that they are in this position without realising it? That their great profits are simply there because they don't understand the risks?

 

[quantuz]

poooooooonnnnnnnnnnnziiiiiiiiiiii

 

[LiamH]

Liam - it depends how the profits are made.

Let's say you have a hypothetical system that will win 99.99% of the time but where the losering trades will lose you 99.99% of your account.

You could be winning for a very long time but due to the nature of the system, the losers will wipe you out.

So - before we talk about someone with 12 months of making 10% a month, don't we actually need to examine their risk profile?

For new traders making these sums - is it not possible that they are in this position without realising it? That their great profits are simply there because they don't understand the risks?

This is looking to deep into what I said. My only point is that any profitable trader who compounds the profits without taking anything from the account will eventually end up very wealthy. Your point about risk - The one trade wiping out the account would prove that they are not profitable.. My statements assume that the trader in question is profitable. I believe you trade for a living don't you? Where would your account be if you had never withdrawn anything and compounded the profits?

I'm gonna have to stop with this debate, it seems I always get sucked into it lol

Hope you had a good Christmas.

 

[Black Swan]

I think in regards to training companies you are right. It's mostly scams, I wouldn't pay for training given the info available online.

There is a 'hindsight' trader on these boards but I'm pretty confident his charts are telling the truth - If not then I am a bad judge of character but I've found everything he's said to me has been correct and he's given some good advice so no reason to doubt that particular person.

This whole 100% per year debate though, I mean, it comes down to strategy at the end of the day. If your stops are 200 pts and you risk 2% then you must make 600 pts to make 6% so for these traders 30% per year is a good return.

Then there's you, chowclown, redart, be positive, vaco etc all posting intraday live calls and I don't keep track tbh but I am confident that you're all at least doubling your account yearly. You say you risk 2% per trade and I've seen your calls - I would place a decent sized bet that you average at least 1R each and every week of the year so then you make at least 100%?

Your original question in this thread re 100k to 200m is of course obvious, only the very best will do that due to liquidity but lets say 10k to 100k - That is do-able. And I think you know it is but don't want the confrontation involved with making such a claim.

You think? Not one of those guys you mention is a full time FX trader, and a few you mention are playing for their next pot noodle. Out of 'em there's only Vaco I'd give a job to and one or two puke when they're 2 quid up/20 pips and you're looking to them for proof? Proof of what? A couple still think it's all primarily about a system and not MM and mind, they see performance of grabbing 150 pips making 1500 quid inside 15 minutes and think you've found the grail, or posted charts from yesteryear, or get all bitter and twisted..Christ on a bike..

Forget what others are doing, what you're really asking for is the comfort and confirmation that "this or that" can be done. Yes it can, but can you do it is all you should be concerned with but not in *classic* manner most hope for.

Why aren't you getting the answers you want? 'Cos it's fookin boring and its been asked to death and this thread is just a re-hash of similar ones, also folk move on and past these issues fairly quickly if they're going to make it (it any sense or fashion) in this business. Can you trade? Get proper backing and do it larger. Can you trade? Remortage your house and put on better size. Can you trade? Prove it and send off cvs. Can you trade? Don't waste your time looking for inspiration and or guidance off 'ere, it isn't here..no one is interested in others' pains unless they're sad vendors/lurking mentors.

Too many dreamers think they'll start off with mini-lots, slyly nicking a few hours off the boss during work time or trading EOD, then effortlessly move through the gears, build up a cash pile, put two fingers up to the boss and go full time and suddenly they'll wake up one day and life's a bowl of cherries, cos *life* is like that eh? Out of all the insidious 5hit that's posted re. trading that *dream* is the worst, it ain't never gonna happen, takes a year (full time) to become OK/proficient at this business, 3/4 years part time. That's all new traders shoud be concerned with, putting in the hours, becoming proficient, how long can they persevere before giving up..and not "can you give me some inspiration and point me to legendary stories from the trading world.."

 

[pboyles]

The problem for me is not whether those people can turn 100k in 200m in 10 years but why at the same time they need to push overpriced training crap using cheap and aggressive sales techniques. Surely, being a world champ and having such a remarkable set of trading skills would not require to sell anything - not mention to lie in the adverts to market the product. I mean.... if I was able to make this sort of $$$ I would be running a fund.

Not mentioning any names but wouldn't you find it even stranger that the guy who claims to be the guru behind all this is himself filing for bankruptcy?

So whilst it's possible that a successful trader could teach others to be profitable what's the chance an unsuccessful one could?

 

[LiamH]

Black Swan - Can I make decent returns? Dunno yet, looking good but ask me again in a year or two.

I'm not interested in inspiration, my only gripe is that people constantly spout these facts about what you can make and it's utter bull sh1t but yeah I agree this has been done to death and needs sacking off.

With regard to your issue with the dream of trading part time then leaving work blah blah blah - This is a pretty poor opinion, I mean.. I've been learning about trading for a few years part time and am at the point where I can trade with a positive expectancy (so far) - What exactly is stopping me from building an account? If I have a 10k account and leave the profit in for a few years while I trade you don't believe this will build to an account I could live off? Of course it will. The only question is whether I'm profitable for long enough and it's the same for anyone else...

 

[pboyles]

It's like weight control, everyone knows what needs to be done, but most don't succeed at implementing because of lack of emotional control and discipline.


it.

That's probably the best analogy I've heard on the subject. Explains fat people and unsuccessful traders in one paragraph.

 

[Black Swan]

Black Swan - Can I make decent returns? Dunno yet, looking good but ask me again in a year or two.

I'm not interested in inspiration, my only gripe is that people constantly spout these facts about what you can make and it's utter bull sh1t but yeah I agree this has been done to death and needs sacking off.

With regard to your issue with the dream of trading part time then leaving work blah blah blah - This is a pretty poor opinion, I mean.. I've been learning about trading for a few years part time and am at the point where I can trade with a positive expectancy (so far) - What exactly is stopping me from building an account? If I have a 10k account and leave the profit in for a few years while I trade you don't believe this will build to an account I could live off? Of course it will. The only question is whether I'm profitable for long enough and it's the same for anyone else...

Gotta be quick, kids want to go sightseeing in London (for the 100th time) they forget me and their Mum lived here for 15 years..actually they probably just want to shop in All Saints etc..

Part time>full time successful aint gonna happen, sorry to kill the dream but there ya go. Prove me wrong? So what, good for you if you make it happen. Critical point you say (as many do) that they've been *learning* trading for a few years, and have now just developed a positive expectancy. So that'll be another 3-4 before they've got enough cash to go full time self employed then, by which time they could be fookin dead..IMHO this industry either grabs your interest or doesn't, you either want to make it or you don't, there are no half measures; you're either full time/fully commited or nowhere.

You could actually make a living off ten grand now, 100 quid a day and you could live, beats average wage (just)..so why arent you and many others? They want all their ducks lined up in a row before making the commitment and that's what separates them from the doers.

 

[LiamH]

Gotta be quick, kids want to go sightseeing in London (for the 100th time) they forget me and their Mum lived here for 15 years..actually they probably just want to shop in All Saints etc..

Part time>full time successful aint gonna happen, sorry to kill the dream but there ya go. Prove me wrong? So what, good for you if you make it happen. Critical point you say (as many do) that they've been *learning* trading for a few years, and have now just developed a positive expectancy. So that'll be another 3-4 before they've got enough cash to go full time self employed then, by which time they could be fookin dead..IMHO this industry either grabs your interest or doesn't, you either want to make it or you don't, there are no half measures; you're either full time/fully commited or nowhere.

You could actually make a living off ten grand now, 100 quid a day and you could live, beats average wage (just)..so why arent you and many others? They want all their ducks lined up in a row before making the commitment and that's what separates them from the doers.

Have a good'un with the kids

No, the thing stopping me is I already earn more than 100 quid a day so to start trading full time now with only 10k to fall back on would be ridiculous. I need to be earning at least double what I do at my day job before I can consider leaving - Not much good for my kids if I go full time trading, blow the account and end up homeless is it? Commitment - I am very committed, I spend most of my time watching charts and working out what I'm going to do if market does this or that. My screentime probably at least matches yours so you can't say that my dream is not going to happen because I work for a living. If you make X% per day swing trading then you could make that same % whilst holding down a full time job provided you can still keep an eye on the charts. This is why I feel that argument is pretty poor - Fair enough, most people probably don't commit for long enough but for those who do it is possible. Another 3 or 4 years building an account wil take me to my early 30's and my kids will just be starting school - Perfect :clap: