Contrarian Retail sentiment trading

This is a discussion on Contrarian Retail sentiment trading within the Trading Systems forums, part of the Methods category; Are there any traders on the site that use SSI as a trading basis? or any newer traders that would ...

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Old May 15, 2017, 7:07pm   #1
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Contrarian Retail sentiment trading

Are there any traders on the site that use SSI as a trading basis? or any newer traders that would like to learn the style? It's not my main trading style but I will usually take a small handful of SSI trades a month mainly on a 4H or daily you can basically just check the charts and the sentiment once a day 30 mins maybe: (see image below) Basically it involves fading the retail sector but its more than just that: price structure, fundamental backdrop, COT, Price action etc all play a part. Its an interesting style with a good rationale (basicaly trading with the smart money). I'm not doing this to teach anything but just to create conversations and stimulate discussions on the markets if anyones interested just post if not the thread will soon be relegated to the bottom of the page
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Last edited by Convergence; May 15, 2017 at 7:19pm.
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Old May 16, 2017, 4:58pm   #2
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Convergence started this thread I have taken a short AUDUSD position after mulling over a short for the last few days. Retail traders have increased their net long positions by 22% over at Dukascopy in the last few hours after already being heavily net long as a group. I'm just going to fade them.(Edit on the tech side the trade is a type of 'Antis' trade http://adamhgrimes.com/blog/library/...ding-patterns/)
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Last edited by Convergence; May 16, 2017 at 5:08pm. Reason: typo
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Old May 18, 2017, 1:18pm   #3
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Convergence started this thread stopped for -2 pips. Was using a fixed 20 pip trailed stop, price dropped 18 pips from my entry before reversing and taking out the stop- tiny loss
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Old May 18, 2017, 1:29pm   #4
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Convergence started this thread EURGBP: Retail have switched from net long to net short over the last couple of days, as price is rising (its the only cross where this is happening, it doesn't happen that often every few weeks maybe, thats why you don't get a lot of trades using this method) UK retail sales have muddied the waters a bit but will be looking for a long set up/Bullish PA
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Old May 18, 2017, 1:32pm   #5
 
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i'm following it,thx!
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Old May 18, 2017, 4:36pm   #6
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Convergence started this thread I got a long set up on EG -double bottom on the 1H (had to go out for a bit, so couldn't post entry,) in profit, targets 0.8600 what some might call the 'Value area' Will be looking for a long in EU as retail is now ' shorter-er''
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Old May 18, 2017, 4:56pm   #7
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Convergence started this thread Didn't take a long EU but took a second position on EG, Stops above net long(risk free) Trades on a 5min - simple breakout and back test. it's also a center band rejection trade if your trading Keltners, a 'Bullish Engulfing' for the candle freaks and an L2 if you trade Al Brooks style.
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Old May 18, 2017, 5:05pm   #8
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Convergence started this thread USDCAD is also a cross heavily shorted by Retail and the COT is at Bullish extremes on the CAD. Obvious support around 1.3580. I should have limit ordered this before I went out, just bought it anyway I think it's very much worth the risk it's a trading range for now, so buy low sell high. I do realise tho that the last down leg might be an impulse move and this is just a retrace before support gives way but I'd be surprised, maybe get a stop hunt before we go north though so will have to monitor
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Old May 18, 2017, 5:34pm   #9
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Convergence started this thread I pulled the CAD trade for now flat. In a true breakout this doesn't happen, dealers ram the price up quickly to try and stop underwater longs liquidating so they dont have to absorb that supply, This is not happening here I'm wary and I don't want to become a 20 pip underwater long looking at a third test of support
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Old May 18, 2017, 6:10pm   #10
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Convergence started this thread Ok so we didn't get a classic dealer breakout but it still might be an MTR (Major trend reversal) There's an impulse bar and a retracement type move, we're in the PRZ(potential reversal zone) and its a minor break and retest and a Keltner CBR it's worth a small risk as the upside could be large with the COT the way it is and I'm back in at the same price, If we get a HH I'll be holding this
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Old May 18, 2017, 6:33pm   #11
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Convergence started this thread And finally got my AUD short back on, Triangle breakout, hopefully lots of capitulation/catastrophe retail long stops below
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Old May 18, 2017, 6:36pm   #12
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Convergence started this thread WOW EURGBP targets comprehensiveluy hit edit and long again 0.8581 because when you get these types of unexpected moves that catch traders out you usually get a second leg
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Old May 18, 2017, 7:12pm   #13
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Convergence started this thread AUDUSD we had the breakout now we're having the back test stops to entry as if price returns to my entry we are back in a trading range and anything can happen then. If the back test holds I'm in business
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Old May 18, 2017, 7:16pm   #14
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Convergence started this thread And USDCAD? stops to entry as this is one seriously erratic pair, expect the unexpected
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Old May 19, 2017, 9:55am   #15
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Convergence started this thread AUDUSD and EURGBP both taken out at protective stops for a couple of pips each.

I did set a stop buy order above the EURUSD market yesterday eve which was filled a couple of hours ago, because retail is heavily short the pair and I'm bullish the euro
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