The Coin Flip

This is a discussion on The Coin Flip within the Trading Systems forums, part of the Methods category; Can it be used to create a viable method? If I flip a coin at the same time every single ...

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Old Aug 6, 2012, 1:27am   #1
Joined Jul 2012
The Coin Flip

Can it be used to create a viable method?

If I flip a coin at the same time every single day, how often will I see a profit of 1 pip? 2 pips? 30 pips? How often will I see a loss of 1 pip? . . . 2? . . . 30? After 24 hours, how often will I be up? How often will I be in the red?

To descend further down the rabbit hole: If I flip a coin . . . how often will I see a profit of 1 pip before I see a loss of 1 pip (accounting for spread)? Or gain of 1 before loss of 2? Or gain of 2 before loss of 10?

If I gain 2 pips before I lose 10 pips, I would need to maintain a win percentage only marginally higher than 83% in order to be profitable long-term.

What if you place your stop at the overnight low if the flip calls long, or overnight high if the flip calls short? Or yesterday's low and yesterday's high? How much do you go for?

Do you think we would begin to find consistencies?

Last edited by higherSelfishness; Aug 6, 2012 at 2:14am.
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Old Aug 6, 2012, 1:59am   #2
 
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Re: The Coin Flip



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Old Aug 6, 2012, 2:20am   #3
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Re: The Coin Flip

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ah, bloody hell... I guess I just don't "get" you folks here!

it is rather daft, solo, I'll give you that.
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Old Aug 6, 2012, 2:43am   #4
 
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Re: The Coin Flip

The hare has much to answer for!
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I cannot see., however why we should expect to find a "system" which will work in the stock market; surely the possibilities of profits for the student justify the time and effort required to learn market interpretation.

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Old Aug 6, 2012, 6:20am   #5
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Re: The Coin Flip

Since you already know how to trade and looking for technique on spending the winnings, why do you need the coin flip ?
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Old Aug 6, 2012, 7:44am   #6
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Re: The Coin Flip

I would assume that you would win half the time and lose half the time if the stop loss and take profit were equal distances away from the starting price. Accounting for commissions and spread you would lose money overall.
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Old Aug 6, 2012, 8:08am   #7
 
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Re: The Coin Flip

I told you guy a month or so ago that 'random entry' would be a common subject soon and there's already been quite a few threads on it. It's the new 'pin bar'.
I could sense it. Like the change in the smell of the air before a storm.
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