11% in 2 weeks!

goldenbull · Feb 17, 2011

Hi I have recently put some money into my spread betting account after having confidently founded a strategy I feel should be profitable from back testing it.

Much to my happines but not to my suprise it hase made roughly 11% in my first 2 weeks with modest money management.

Is this good? what are other people getting?

Thanks in advance

tomorton · Feb 17, 2011

goldenbull - well done, it's a good start.

But be humble, 11% in 2 weeks just once in a lifetime is not so good. Half this gain in 2 weeks every single 2 weeks of the year would be absolutely great.

Shakone · Feb 17, 2011

11% in two weeks is very possible. 11% in a day is possible. But it's not about two weeks or about a day. It's about long term.

It's a good start, and I hope it works for you.

It's impossible to say whether it is good unless you provide more information. For example I could bet 100% on a coin toss and make 100% in 5 minutes. That doesn't make me good at predicting coin tosses.

If you want to know if it is good then you need to provide, how much you risk per trade, how many trades you have taken. Average loss, average win etc.

But enjoy the 11% gain

well done.

goldenbull · Feb 17, 2011

tomorton said:
goldenbull - well done, it's a good start.

But be humble, 11% in 2 weeks just once in a lifetime is not so good. Half this gain in 2 weeks every single 2 weeks of the year would be absolutely great.

Thanks Tom and yes I agree, I will be humble as for now it means little.
I have to admit my first 2 trades were complete chaos with a definite internal struggle going on and the trades reflected that as I immediatly went down 10% in my first 2 days.
After re-grouping and trusting my strategy I have clawed my way back to being up 11% so from here on in I look forward to what happens.

Thanks

goldenbull · Feb 17, 2011

Shakone said:
11% in two weeks is very possible. 11% in a day is possible. But it's not about two weeks or about a day. It's about long term.

It's a good start, and I hope it works for you.

It's impossible to say whether it is good unless you provide more information. For example I could bet 100% on a coin toss and make 100% in 5 minutes. That doesn't make me good at predicting coin tosses.

If you want to know if it is good then you need to provide, how much you risk per trade, how many trades you have taken. Average loss, average win etc.

But enjoy the 11% gain well done.

Thank you, yes I agree, after quickly looking at my figures I have had 8 succesful trades and 5 losing trades so far. As for the rest I could sit down and work it out and I think I will... I wont get carried away for now

goldenbull · Feb 17, 2011

Shakone said:
11% in two weeks is very possible. 11% in a day is possible. But it's not about two weeks or about a day. It's about long term.

It's a good start, and I hope it works for you.

It's impossible to say whether it is good unless you provide more information. For example I could bet 100% on a coin toss and make 100% in 5 minutes. That doesn't make me good at predicting coin tosses.

If you want to know if it is good then you need to provide, how much you risk per trade, how many trades you have taken. Average loss, average win etc.

But enjoy the 11% gain well done.

After looking at my records I have 8 winning trades at an avergae of 41 points profit and 5 loses for an average of 9 points per loss.

The amount of risk per trade depends on the day before however its not normally above 10% however the win/loss ratio from backtesting is a 70% success.... hope this makes sence

shadowninja · Feb 17, 2011

I say keep doing what you're doing but stay focused. Don't start to think you're a trading god as the minute you get cocky, the market will rape you. Ideally, you want to see a few hundred trades over several months (ie differing market characteristics) to give you an idea of whether what you're doing is a long-term goer or not.

What is your MM % then?

goldenbull · Feb 18, 2011

shadowninja said:
I say keep doing what you're doing but stay focused. Don't start to think you're a trading god as the minute you get cocky, the market will rape you. Ideally, you want to see a few hundred trades over several months (ie differing market characteristics) to give you an idea of whether what you're doing is a long-term goer or not.

What is your MM % then?

Thanks, No that is definetly a trap I wont fall for, for now its nice to see it working but theres a long way to go yet. I am only trading the Dow Jones as I have a system specifically for the Dow. Not sure what you mean by MM % ??

anley · Feb 18, 2011

Goldenball

If you're risking around 10% per trade then you're on the road to ruin, and that's 100% guaranteed. You probably don't realise it and will probably not believe it either but mathmatically it's a 100% certainty.

So if you want a chance, ie the chance to make money over a long period of time then consider cutting your risk down to a MAXIMUM of 2%. Yes, this will reduce your profits but successful trading (overtime) is not about profits, it's all about risks, and risk management.

Good luck anyway.

goldenbull · Feb 18, 2011

anley said:
Goldenball

If you're risking around 10% per trade then you're on the road to ruin, and that's 100% guaranteed. You probably don't realise it and will probably not believe it either but mathmatically it's a 100% certainty.

So if you want a chance, ie the chance to make money over a long period of time then consider cutting your risk down to a MAXIMUM of 2%. Yes, this will reduce your profits but successful trading (overtime) is not about profits, it's all about risks, and risk management.

Good luck anyway.

Thanks for the advice,
I understand what your saying and I know that to be able to profit in the long term then this is what has to be done in order not to lose my capital, however as for now my capital is quite small and I am ok with trading at a maximum of 10% risk untill I get to a level (fast) that I can then trade with a smaller amount of risk...
Having backtested this system I have not come into any problems and will only use this amout of risk for a while untill the level I am happy with.

Thank you though

anley · Feb 18, 2011

Sure, risking smaller amounts of total capital at 10% risk per trade is no problem AS LONG as you continue to trade as normal if/when you get a 20%+ drawdown.

Losing 20%+ on paper when you test a strategy out is never a problem, but in real life it's a different matter.

Good luck

goldenbull · Feb 18, 2011

anley said:
Sure, risking smaller amounts of total capital at 10% risk per trade is no problem AS LONG as you continue to trade as normal if/when you get a 20%+ drawdown.

Losing 20%+ on paper when you test a strategy out is never a problem, but in real life it's a different matter.

Good luck

No offcourse however it is the same if and when my account is up 20%...
For now I am fine with the biggest risk being 10% as more often then not my trades are succesfull and with the average winning trade around 41 points and the average losing trade around 9% I will (hopefully) build my capital to a level that is sufficient for 2% maximum risk

cheers

BlackBison · Feb 18, 2011

Don't listen to them.. if you are doing well and want to risk more feel free to push the boat out. Just make sure you cut back if it starts going wrong and don't try and revenge trade back your losses at big size.

11% in 2 weeks!

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