Crude Oil Trading Strategy

This is a discussion on Crude Oil Trading Strategy within the Trading Software forums, part of the Commercial category; Hello , I have more than 10 trading strategies tested in tradestation , and this is one of them : ...

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Old Sep 23, 2010, 1:31am   #1
 
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Joined Jan 2010
Crude Oil Trading Strategy

Hello ,

I have more than 10 trading strategies tested in tradestation , and this is one of them :

This a the Resaults of My Strategy:

* 1 Years Tested

Total Net Profit = $61,660

* Total Number of trades = 1555

* Avg.Trade Net Profit = $39.65

* Max Consecutive wining trades = 25

* Max Consecutive Losing trades = 5

* Max Shares contract Held = 1 contract

* Profit factor = 1.6

* Max. Drawdown (Intra-day Peak to Valley) = $3,562

* Max. Drawdown (Trade Close to Trade Close) = $2,964

* Max Drawdowm over 20 Years = $6,352


i have more than 10 strategies with approx. same resaults , S&P , dow , crude oil ,

But,

I don't know how can I get benefit from them

1- Is it worth ??

2- where can I sell these kinds of trading strategies ?

3- does any body here interested with this ??
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Old Sep 23, 2010, 1:49am   #2
 
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Joined Feb 2009
Re: Crude Oil Trading Strategy

Are those backtested results? I can find better backtested results without too much difficulty by curve-fitting, so that wouldn't be worth much. If they are forward tested results (i.e. you actually traded them for one year) then that is a bit different.

What was the:
initial account size
%win
%loss
average win
average loss?

Last edited by Shakone; Sep 23, 2010 at 2:02am.
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Old Sep 23, 2010, 2:04am   #3
 
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Joined Jul 2007
Re: Crude Oil Trading Strategy

1) If you feel they are profitable, then use them. That's their worth.

2) If they were any good, why sell them? Just rape the market. Otherwise, if in reality they're crap, just ebay them for $50 to gullible fools.

3) Just post up the details and we'll analyse them for you.
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Old Sep 23, 2010, 3:10pm   #4
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Re: Crude Oil Trading Strategy

With near certainty, This will be a daytrading strategy, ATNP about $40, that has been optimized over the period. The ratio of consecutive wins to consecutive losses is generally a pretty decent predictor of such. 25 wins to 5 losses on this one. On a strategy that is not over optimized, one that is comprised of only out of sample results over an adequate period, one will normally see these two numbers closer to one another. Anytime that I see a strategy with just too many wins in a row versus losses in a row then this raises my danger flags. You can see that this is not just a strategy that holds position until it has a winner and then exits as the peak to valley vs the closed trade profits are near to one another. The one thing in this that is confusing is the statement of max DD over 20 years.

Regardless, the ONLY benefit at all from an optimization is seeing if the strategy can produce a profitable result over the period. If it can then we can continue testing. If the strategy can't then it goes into the trashcan because there is no hope for that core logic. Otherwise, optimized results mean absolutely nothing in the scheme of things. One must perform numerous and adequate and VALID testing procedures on the strategies. You surely are not going to like what you see but you have to put that aside and do it anyways. If you are producing strategies with intentions of leasing them or selling them and do not do this sort of testing beforehand then you are simply a charlatan and IMO a criminal.
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