my journal 2

This is a discussion on my journal 2 within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Good comedy: http://www.letmewatchthis.com/watch-1921-A-Guy-Thing...

Closed Thread
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old Jun 27, 2010, 1:55pm   #946
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
re: my journal 2

Yamato started this thread Good comedy:
http://www.letmewatchthis.com/watch-1921-A-Guy-Thing
__________________
Read: E.P. Chan, Cogneau - Hubner, Sewell, Tverberg. Search: expected shortfall, Monte Carlo VaR, extreme value theory. Trade.
Yamato is offline  
Old Jun 27, 2010, 3:48pm   #947
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
analyzing next week's gamble

Yamato started this thread Next week I said I'll be trading risky systems, which in reality means only one very risky system on the CL. Let's see what I am risking, in detail.

The past forward-tested trades are as follows:

-226
-925
375
-175
45
-375
715
-1,096
-285
355
-206
394
-635
625
434
35
394
1,025
-976
-525
805
-135
335
174
244
625
344
185
274
75
-136
174
-326
245
-95
144
415
985
-255
-496
365
-95
504
245
-86
-156
694
75
204
85
245
515
204
375
25
-686
474
-315
704
245
325
54
265
185
-296
304
285
-85
64
-485
-55
-136
-395
75
575
485
45
314
-85
-596
-1,206
554
-86
-155
325
-55
-296
84
2,184
-106
365
-76
-1,816
584
-1,046
754
-1,525
1,615
-96
-666
885
444
-175
-286
-145
45
614

Out of 107 trades, how many trades do I really fear?

All losses above 600 dollars, which is exactly 10 trades, which is less than 10%. It's a risk I can take. Even if it happens, it doesn't mean I'll blow out my account.

If it doesn't happen, I'll provide myself thrills and enough capital to keep on trading the 12 systems I am trading.

In case they work, I'll just keep on trading them as they are for a couple of months. Hopefully this will bring me an estimated 4k per month.

This will allow me to scale up later on.

Yes, if one looks at the potential losses on the CL system I will trade, there's a 5% of them that will cause me to lose 30% of my account, which is close to blowing it out considering IB's margin requirements.

However, guess what. If I don't push my risk/money management, I will be bored next week, and, because of Friday's loss, I know I will try to make it back and engage in my usual revenge trading, and, most likely, I will blow out my account. So I am much better off letting the systems trade wildly.

You see, it's a fact that when I am in discretionary trading mode, whether I win and get cocky or lose and get vengeful, my account never lasted longer than one month. Seriously, if I don't stop discretionary trading, history tells me I will blow out my account within the next two weeks (since I've been trading discretionary for 2 weeks already). I'd just keep on getting closer and closer to the fire, till I'll eventually get burned. I've been blowing out my accounts endlessly for the past 13 years, from my first girlfriend, who left me partially because of it, to my last non-girlfriend, who's not with me partially because of it. This is not to say that trading has ruined my life. My life was already empty and I filled it with trading. And the women who stay with you because of your money or leave you because of your poverty are worthless. So basically they're all worthless. That's why I appreciate prostitutes much better - because they're honest and tell you immediately that it's about money. And I can be honest with them and tell them that it's about sex.
__________________
Read: E.P. Chan, Cogneau - Hubner, Sewell, Tverberg. Search: expected shortfall, Monte Carlo VaR, extreme value theory. Trade.

Last edited by Yamato; Jun 27, 2010 at 3:56pm.
Yamato is offline  
Old Jun 27, 2010, 6:22pm   #948
Joined May 2010
Re: more on quitting my job

Why don't you reverse the cycle and do the other way around ?
I am transitioning right now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
Another issue with quitting my job is that without quitting my job I don't get any action, because I can't conceive living a full satisfactory life if I have to go to work every day, first of all because I can't live where I want to live. Second of all, because it takes most of my day. You see, this tends to happen every time I have a job. Wherever the country, whatever the job, I get into this routine where I only work my ass off and cut all the fun, and I am in a bad mood, and say to myself: until I have to work this job, there can be no life.

So if I don't live a full life, what happens is that I need some extra excitement and I get that from trading. For every hour I am not swimming in the ocean I need to spend it trading or doing something that I enjoy, which is basically only trading. Or maybe I could have sex. I have to pay the women to have sex because I am not good at getting the ones I want. But I still don't have enough leverage to do that. If I had 100k, I could easily afford to pay any woman of my liking. Out to dinner or just for sex, which is the same thing. After all you're always paying.

So, getting back to my point and recapitulating my reasoning until here: unless I quit my job, I can't have an exciting life and then I look for thrills in trading, and then I blow out my account, and then I can't quit my job. A vicious circle that goes on and on, forever. This has been the case in the last 2 years, when I blew out my account several times.

Now: I can't change nor trick myself. If job and fun are not compatible to me, it will probably will be that way forever. So all I can do right now is either quit my job and live where i can live a healthy and satisfactory life, or inject some life and excitement into my daily routine here in Rome - but being aware that it's not the real thing. Since for now I can't quit anyway, because I have to first pay my debt at least, what kind of excitement can I inject into my life, that could keep me away from trading as a source of thrills?

1) Sex. Discarded, not enough money.
2) Drugs. Discarded, not enough money.
3) ...

Nothing comes to my mind, and since I've been thinking about this before, if I haven't solved the problem, it's probably because i am just too undercapitalized to be able to do anything other than staying home, and trade for fun.

I can't find impossible solutions or make big changes. Let us focus on the small and immediate changes, because the deeply ingrained habits are not likely to change.

If trading is the only way for me to have a little fun while I work, I should try to make it a profitable experience, and maybe I am learning to trade discretionary in a profitable way. But maybe not. Nowadays I don't have the problem of picking the right trades, because I am good at picking good trades. My problem and danger nowadays and in the past 2 years has always been only this: doubling up on a losing positions and keeping a losing position open for days. And this usually happens after two consecutive losses. As soon as I get my second loss in a row, I start losing my temper. But if I can avoid that second loss, by waiting a week after I incur the first loss, then I can at least ensure that my discretionary trading will not cause me any losses, and probably even be profitable. And that way I can anticipate the date of quitting my job. So I can be both thrilled and achieve a long-term objectice.

For example, Friday I had a loss, so how can I make sure that I will not trade for a week or at least for a few days?

Now, I have noticed that if I push my risk and money management to "dangerous" levels, and witness a lot of trades by my systems, I can stay away from discretionary trading. So that is exactly what I am going to do. I allowed trading by a whole bunch of systems, whose drawdown I can barely afford. And if the worst drawdown will happen, I will lose everything. But if it doesn't happen, which is most likely the case, I will just make a lot of money. This is much better than allowing myself to trade discretionary, incur a loss, and blow out my account out of frustration. Yeah, because if the only good part of your day is trading, and you incur losses, obviously you're not going to be serene about it.

So I will now wait and see what happens tomorrow, and if my systems provide enough excitement for me to not trade discretionary for a few days, until I forget Friday's loss.
tommason is offline  
Old Jun 27, 2010, 6:46pm   #949
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
re: my journal 2

Yamato started this thread Let me quote the vicious circle again: "...unless I quit my job, I can't have an exciting life and then I look for thrills in trading, and then I blow out my account, and then I can't quit my job".

So reversing it would mean what? Let me think.

I quit my job, I live a full life, and trading works. What if for one reason or another it fails to work? Then I'd be screwed, so after all my parents are right that I should have 500k set aside before quitting my job.
__________________
Read: E.P. Chan, Cogneau - Hubner, Sewell, Tverberg. Search: expected shortfall, Monte Carlo VaR, extreme value theory. Trade.
Yamato is offline  
Old Jun 28, 2010, 2:30pm   #950
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
challenger at work

Yamato started this thread Damn. I don't know whether to be happy or frustrated.

After spending years at the Compliance department being surrounded by dozens of law/economics graduates who sucked at excel and anything related to computers, a week ago this new employee was hired, who has a degree in engineering.

I could immediately tell that he was a bit cocky or at least rude, because this guy is someone who just stares at you without talking, which kind of pissed me off, and I felt like telling him "what the hell are you looking at?". Instead I just nodded and said "hi", and he kept on looking at me without almost replying - which immediately made me think "this guy is a rude asshole - you don't stare at people like that". It always bothers me when people do that, especially since he just got here and should be looking a bit more humble. So the beginning is pretty bad and I already disliked this guy even before talking to him.

Then I talked to him and he seems pretty easy-going, but there's a problem: he's an engineer. So this means that as of last week I am no longer the computer whiz of the Compliance department. I had gotten used to it, and to being called "little genius" and crap like that. Now this younger guy gets hired, and he doesn't give a damn about me, and may be even bothered that a political science major like me has abused what should belong to him. Basically my reign has ceased. From now on, I am not the expert at anything anymore. He's the guy computer guy of the floor, and the other guys are the expert of laws. I am nothing any more.

Hopefully at least he doesn't speak English. It felt so good to be considered the best at something, and it feels so bad to see others being considered better than you, even though I do believe that he's better than me, maybe not at excel, but definitely at math, formulas and all that.

I guess I was even too privileged to feel like a genius for so many years - it only means I was surrounded by idiots, or rather by people who really sucked at anything related to computers. Damn. It doesn't feel good...

Now I will try to make friends with this guy, and hopefully I will learn something from him. Now it's my time to be humbled by other people's knowledge, and show some modesty, because I am no longer the "computer guy" of the neighbourhood.

Damn, I don't like competition and having people who challenge me. I prefer to feel like I am the best all the time. Plus this guy has an attitude, plus he's younger... it sucks. On the other hand, it can't get much worse than this, given such a beginning. Things should improve from here, because they look awful.

I'd like to learn and teach things (I certainly can teach him a couple of things, since I've been here for years) to this guy, in a reciprocal exchange. He seems a bit cocky and unfriendly, even though easy-going, but the easygoing type who's not friendly. Maybe I am just prejudiced because I feel like he's competition. Hopefully I'll find a way to cooperate rather than be seen or see him as an enemy.

Right now I do see him a bit as an enemy. It's so true that he even reminds me of my father in his attitude. Staring at you without talking or saying anything is something my father does, and let me tell you he never makes anyone feel comfortable when he does that, and he just means that he doesn't give a damn to make you feel comfortable - he's just insensitive to how you're feeling. Total selfishness. If he's like my dad, I won't be able to get along with him. Someone who just wants power, and just thinks of himself. But guess what, maybe we're going to have problems precisely because i am just the same, and we're both miserable fellows. But then again, I am probably imagining the whole thing, as I usually do when I am dealing with people. I am very bad at appraising people, as I always expect the worst of them.
__________________
Read: E.P. Chan, Cogneau - Hubner, Sewell, Tverberg. Search: expected shortfall, Monte Carlo VaR, extreme value theory. Trade.

Last edited by Yamato; Jun 28, 2010 at 2:58pm.
Yamato is offline  
Old Jun 28, 2010, 6:18pm   #951
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
the "battle of quebec"

Yamato started this thread Studying more of the Story of English. I am at the Canadian videos now and I came across the american revolution period, and there's this battle in which 5 British soldiers died, and they call it "battle".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Quebec_(1775)

__________________
Read: E.P. Chan, Cogneau - Hubner, Sewell, Tverberg. Search: expected shortfall, Monte Carlo VaR, extreme value theory. Trade.
Yamato is offline  
Old Jun 28, 2010, 10:04pm   #952
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
re: my journal 2

Yamato started this thread watching this:
http://www.letmewatchthis.com/watch-1417-Balls-of-Fury

It seems quite good so far (20 minutes into it).

As is often is the case, the movie got progressively worse. Not worth watching.
__________________
Read: E.P. Chan, Cogneau - Hubner, Sewell, Tverberg. Search: expected shortfall, Monte Carlo VaR, extreme value theory. Trade.

Last edited by Yamato; Jun 28, 2010 at 11:36pm.
Yamato is offline  
Old Jun 29, 2010, 11:31am   #953
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
re: my journal 2

Yamato started this thread This might be good, judging by the fact that there are sequels:
http://www.letmewatchthis.com/watch-...kass-The-Movie

Definitely not boring. Definitely not a movie. Very stupid but not boring. It is something that makes you think. It's stupid and at the same time it makes you think about humans.
__________________
Read: E.P. Chan, Cogneau - Hubner, Sewell, Tverberg. Search: expected shortfall, Monte Carlo VaR, extreme value theory. Trade.

Last edited by Yamato; Jun 29, 2010 at 1:10pm.
Yamato is offline  
Old Jun 29, 2010, 4:29pm   #954
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
re: my journal 2

Yamato started this thread Huge discretionary loss today, which far exceeds all previous discretionary gains - I still haven't closed the trade. I had anticipated it a few posts ago: I knew it was coming soon. Yet I kept on trading and it happened as usual. I might get lucky and make some of it back, or again I might blow out my account. Right now I just can't close, because the loss is just too big to take it. It got so big because I felt I couldn't close it when I was losing 50 dollars. I felt I had to make money. Usual crap that happens to me. Yet I am getting better and better at predicting my own sick behaviours.
__________________
Read: E.P. Chan, Cogneau - Hubner, Sewell, Tverberg. Search: expected shortfall, Monte Carlo VaR, extreme value theory. Trade.
Yamato is offline  
Old Jun 29, 2010, 7:57pm   #955
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
The Story of English...

Yamato started this thread More stuff on the same old subject I've been watching and reading about.

This time a video from Amy Walker:

__________________
Read: E.P. Chan, Cogneau - Hubner, Sewell, Tverberg. Search: expected shortfall, Monte Carlo VaR, extreme value theory. Trade.
Yamato is offline  
Old Jun 29, 2010, 10:09pm   #956
 
Adamus's Avatar
Joined Mar 2008
re: my journal 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
Huge discretionary loss today, which far exceeds all previous discretionary gains - I still haven't closed the trade.
Maybe we should swap lives. I would have no problems with the troubles you make for yourself, and you could probably sort out some stuff at my end too - as long as I got back before you blow out my account.
__________________
What matters most is how well you walk through the fire.
Adamus is offline  
Old Jun 29, 2010, 11:58pm   #957
 
Shikamaroo's Avatar
Joined Dec 2008
re: my journal 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
Huge discretionary loss today, which far exceeds all previous discretionary gains - I still haven't closed the trade. I had anticipated it a few posts ago: I knew it was coming soon. Yet I kept on trading and it happened as usual. I might get lucky and make some of it back, or again I might blow out my account. Right now I just can't close, because the loss is just too big to take it. It got so big because I felt I couldn't close it when I was losing 50 dollars. I felt I had to make money. Usual crap that happens to me. Yet I am getting better and better at predicting my own sick behaviours.
Here's a little idea that I keep telling my self about trading, it's helped me a little so I hope that it will help you a little.

Trading is a test about the future, since no one knows the answers, we should all fail. However, the teacher likes us so much that she set 30% as the pass mark. She then also said that the answer to 40% of the questions are C (multiple choice).

In my analogy the Teacher is whoever told you about your strategy,
Answering each question as C is your strategy,
Each question is a signal

I think it works since it redefines winning and losing so that less money in the account after a trade isn't losing but a wrong answer to a question which is more acceptable to me since I have gotten tons of answers wrong during my school days. I also rate myself after a day of trading to see if I passed my exams.

Hope those systems make back your money. Sorry for the intrusion.
__________________
Sorry, I don't have any pearls of wisdom for you.
Shikamaroo is offline  
Old Jun 30, 2010, 1:21am   #958
Joined May 2010
re: my journal 2

how long for you to be able to get that 500k?
I am afraid once u achieve that you will be cocky haha

Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
Let me quote the vicious circle again: "...unless I quit my job, I can't have an exciting life and then I look for thrills in trading, and then I blow out my account, and then I can't quit my job".

So reversing it would mean what? Let me think.

I quit my job, I live a full life, and trading works. What if for one reason or another it fails to work? Then I'd be screwed, so after all my parents are right that I should have 500k set aside before quitting my job.
tommason is offline  
Old Jun 30, 2010, 8:38am   #959
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
re: my journal 2

Yamato started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adamus View Post
Maybe we should swap lives. I would have no problems with the troubles you make for yourself, and you could probably sort out some stuff at my end too - as long as I got back before you blow out my account.
Can I sleep with your wife? If I can, I would stop trading and your account would be safe.
__________________
Read: E.P. Chan, Cogneau - Hubner, Sewell, Tverberg. Search: expected shortfall, Monte Carlo VaR, extreme value theory. Trade.
Yamato is offline  
Old Jun 30, 2010, 8:42am   #960
 
Yamato's Avatar
Joined Mar 2003
re: my journal 2

Yamato started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shikamaroo View Post
Here's a little idea that I keep telling my self about trading, it's helped me a little so I hope that it will help you a little.

Trading is a test about the future, since no one knows the answers, we should all fail. However, the teacher likes us so much that she set 30% as the pass mark. She then also said that the answer to 40% of the questions are C (multiple choice).

In my analogy the Teacher is whoever told you about your strategy,
Answering each question as C is your strategy,
Each question is a signal

I think it works since it redefines winning and losing so that less money in the account after a trade isn't losing but a wrong answer to a question which is more acceptable to me since I have gotten tons of answers wrong during my school days. I also rate myself after a day of trading to see if I passed my exams.

Hope those systems make back your money. Sorry for the intrusion.
Yes, thank you for the analogies. It will stick to my mind and sooner or later I will use it.

The systems will make money, but the problem this time was with my discretionary trading. Actually that's the case every time. No intrusion: post any time you want.
__________________
Read: E.P. Chan, Cogneau - Hubner, Sewell, Tverberg. Search: expected shortfall, Monte Carlo VaR, extreme value theory. Trade.
Yamato is offline  
Closed Thread

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
say hello to my little journal gozinsky Trading Journals 13 Sep 27, 2011 9:37pm
my journal Yamato Trading Journals 2334 Jan 18, 2010 12:57pm
The EA Journal! Victor90 Trading Journals 1 Oct 28, 2008 12:47am

LinkBacks (?)
LinkBack to this Thread: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/85510-my-journal-2-a.html
Posted By For Type Date
Science Forum - why Standard deviation is better than Avarage Deviation This thread Refback May 22, 2010 2:34am

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)