my journal 2

This is a discussion on my journal 2 within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Today I watched this very interesting History Channel documentary: It's the history of North America, as we know it today, ...

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Old Feb 10, 2010, 9:41pm   #256
 
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mayflower

Yamato started this thread Today I watched this very interesting History Channel documentary:



It's the history of North America, as we know it today, English-speaking. The beginning of the USA basically.

As I watched it, I kept on browsing and searching on wikipedia. These are the most useful entries:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pilgrim_Fathers
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayflower
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._the_Mayflower
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...of_1620_-_1621
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayflower_Compact
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thanksg...ms_at_Plymouth

These are very interesting facts, with real people. Better than any movie.
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Old Feb 10, 2010, 10:09pm   #257
 
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re: my journal 2

Yamato started this thread The less I worry about others (on the journal) looking at my results, the less I worry about impressing people, the more I can trade without emotions. These trades were all rational, all 5 of them:

http://www.chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?8634gd-87,4

Mty dad is coming home. Just hearing the elevator bothers me. It could be the neighbour, just another asshole. Or it could be my father, the son of a bitch. He's disrupting my mood. Yes, being close to people I dislike affects my trading. Unfortunately. I need to at least not trade when I am feeling unbalanced due to people or other causes.

Tell you what. I'll try to play again despite my father's presence deeply disturbing me.
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Old Feb 10, 2010, 10:19pm   #258
 
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re: my journal 2

Yamato started this thread http://stagevu.com/video/gdiwzkdwjktd
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Old Feb 10, 2010, 10:39pm   #259
 
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re: my journal 2

Yamato started this thread It's ok. 23 trades, lost on most of them, but I was in control. I didn't do any hoping, or praying. I am satisfied.

http://www.chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?8634gd-88,7

When you fear something it's time to get out. Don't replace your fear with your hope or despair and denial. Just get out as soon as something doesn't go as expected and move to the next trade. Only that way you'll stay in control. You may lose, but you'll be in control.
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Old Feb 10, 2010, 10:48pm   #260
 
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re: my journal 2

Yamato started this thread http://stagevu.com/video/gdiwzkdwjktd

http://www.angelfire.com/movies/ridl...OfParadise.txt

Quote:
COLUMBUS
What do you read?

MENDEZ
Twenty eight.

MENDEZ turns to COLUMBUS.

COLUMBUS
That's it. The twenty eighth parallel. And we'll follow it until we reach land.

ALONSO does not seem convinced.

ALONSO
How do you know land is on the twenty eighth parallel?

COLUMBUS
I don't!
I am much the same with profit. I know profit is out there. Hopefully the market is round like the earth, and if there is loss there is also profit. And if I keep on moving away from loss I will reach profit. Hopefully I won't go around in circles though, which could have happened to Columbus as well. Profit is out there, it's a continent. And it's only slightly smaller than loss (due to commissions and spread costs). I can't miss it.
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Old Feb 11, 2010, 8:40am   #261
 
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6 rational trades

Yamato started this thread That's all I could do, given all the losses I incurred: 6 rational trades.

http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?84btr5-2,2
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Old Feb 11, 2010, 2:34pm   #262
 
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Re: 6 rational trades

Hey Travis

Firstly thanks for this journal - very interesting. A couple of comments/questions..

Chartgame - very good, excellent learning resource but agree that in real time you would have a problem with my patience over a two year period I reckon. I tend to place trades taking based on 15 minutes candles.

If you were profitable at automated trading why go through the pain of discretionary trading. I'm not having a dig here just interested in knowing why you decided to move from one to the other?

My own personal situation is that I have been trading for just under 5 years and only in the last 2 would I say I have had any level of consistent profits. I trade discretionary but am exploring automated systems as I like the though of using both strategies in parallel.

Good Luck and keep up the fight!

ps. I though the Jack Nick video you posted earlier dialling the pizza store was hilarious!

Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
That's all I could do, given all the losses I incurred: 6 rational trades.

http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?84btr5-2,2
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Old Feb 11, 2010, 9:49pm   #263
 
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re: my journal 2

Yamato started this thread

Sunny, yesterday my life was filled with rain.
Sunny, you smiled at me and really eased the pain.
The dark days are gone, and the bright days are here,
My sunny one shines so sincere.
Sunny one so true, I love you.



Sunny, thank you for the sunshine bouquet.
Sunny, thank you for the love you brought my way.
You gave to me your all and all.
Now I feel ten feet tall.
Sunny one so true, I love you.



Sunny, thank you for the truth you let me see.
Sunny, thank you for the facts from a to c.
My life was torn like a windblown sand,
And the rock was formed when you held my hand.
Sunny one so true, I love you.



Sunny, thank you for the smile upon your face.
Sunny, thank you for the gleam that shows it's grace.
You're my spark of nature's fire,
You're my sweet complete desire.
Sunny one so true, I love you.

Sunny, yesterday my life was filled with rain.
Sunny, you smiled at me and really eased the pain.
The dark days are gone, and the bright days are here,
My sunny one shines so sincere.
Sunny one so true, I love you.

Last edited by Yamato; Feb 11, 2010 at 9:59pm.
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Old Feb 11, 2010, 10:03pm   #264
 
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re: my journal 2

I try and help where I Can!

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Old Feb 11, 2010, 10:08pm   #265
 
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12 rational trades...

Yamato started this thread ...then my father came home, and I stopped playing before i screwed up my stoplosses and entries. I think this is good because it's making me realize exactly what interferes with my rationality. For example, my father getting home. A streak of losses, and so on.

http://www.chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?8634gd-89,6
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Old Feb 11, 2010, 10:20pm   #266
 
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Re: 6 rational trades

Yamato started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by sun_wants View Post
Hey Travis

Firstly thanks for this journal - very interesting. A couple of comments/questions..

Chartgame - very good, excellent learning resource but agree that in real time you would have a problem with my patience over a two year period I reckon. I tend to place trades taking based on 15 minutes candles.

If you were profitable at automated trading why go through the pain of discretionary trading. I'm not having a dig here just interested in knowing why you decided to move from one to the other?

My own personal situation is that I have been trading for just under 5 years and only in the last 2 would I say I have had any level of consistent profits. I trade discretionary but am exploring automated systems as I like the though of using both strategies in parallel.

Good Luck and keep up the fight!

ps. I though the Jack Nick video you posted earlier dialling the pizza store was hilarious!
Yes, I will answer all your questions slowly and in reverse order. Thanks first of all for liking the Jack Nicholson prank call. I'll post it again. I liked it as well.



Thanks, good luck to you as well.

Congratulations on achieving consistent profitability after 3 years.

I was restless, lost my capital needed for automated trading and now I don't have enough capital for such trading. It has a bigger drawdown.

Thanks for liking my journal and letting me know. Go ahead and teach me what you can about profitable discretionary trading please. Feel free to share what you do that works, besides trading the 15 minutes candles. It can be one sentence, 2, 3 or more. Not more than 10 sentences, because I can't read very well. I can only write.
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Old Feb 11, 2010, 11:32pm   #267
 
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automated trading: DX filter

Yamato started this thread More on this subject:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trad...ml#post1053076

I have figured it out... or at least getting there.

I will have the system record trades only in one way, with the regular system. But I will have the signals reversed as they execute given certain conditions. I will use these two filters:

1) Past week.
2) DX and its 40-day average.

If past week was profitable and DX is below its average, then we use the systems as usual. If the opposite is true and the week was negative and DX above average, we reverse the systems. In all other (mixed) conditions, we do nothing.

At the beginning of each week, the 2 filters will decide whether the systems get reversed or not. Is DX below average and past week positive? Then it doesn't get reversed. Both parameters are the opposite? Then it gets reversed. This will be decided every monday morning and will be valid for the whole week.

At the end of the week, before copying the trades to my forward testing excel workbook, I will reverse all the signals in case it was a reversed systems week (by changing where it says "BUY" to "SELL" and viceversa, line by line). Otherwise I won't have to worry about anything.

This would have given me these results in the past six months:

snap1.jpg

Book1.xls

It almost looks too good to be true, but I believe it's quite close to the truth. Let's say that if I won't make money every month, I'll get close to it.

One would feel tempted to say: why use the DX filter? If we ignore it and just use the "past week" filter, we add 11k of profit to the system. However the fact that Dollar and the systems are inversely correlated is beyond any doubt. When the dollar rises, the systems lose. So if they're making money, it doesn't last. So it's not safe to reverse them just because they made money one week. We don't want a situation in which you lose on both sides, like in a range situation, which doesn't seem to happen on the dollar, but that could happen. And then we don't want to lose in both directions.

It seems to me that as long as the dollar moves in trends that last months, rather than in ranges, then there is great potential for these systems. If that were to stop, I don't know what would happen. But I'd be happy with just making money for 3 years, and then I'd change the systems, and make them indifferent to the dollar. If the dollar goes up and down towards the euro, the way it's been doing for the past 20 years, these systems should be ok. If it doesn't, I'm in trouble.

Last edited by Yamato; Feb 12, 2010 at 12:11am.
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Old Feb 12, 2010, 12:32am   #268
 
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19 rational trades

Yamato started this thread It was good.

http://www.chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?8634gd-91,3

I had some losses but they didn't bother me so much that I lost control. I kept going for as many as 19 trades. I am pretty satisfied. Maybe my strategy sucks, even though it made money. It's top and bottom picking. I've gotten good at it, but it's true that I just squeeze money out of the wrong places, even if I make money. Maybe in time I'll learn to squeeze money from other places, better ones. However what matters right now is that I both try and that I don't lose my temper when things don't go as predicted.
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Old Feb 12, 2010, 8:26am   #269
 
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re: my journal 2

Yamato started this thread Another 19 rational trades:

http://chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?84btr5-2,5

Then I incurred a big loss and I felt that I was going to lose my temper so I stopped. I keep on doing top and bottom picking, without even looking at s/r. It usually works but i catch very small pieces of the trend: the beginning and the end.

I must try to do some trend-following in the future. It will come natural.
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Old Feb 12, 2010, 10:10am   #270
 
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Re: 6 rational trades

Jack is certainly the man..! I love the fact that the pizza company cannot hang up for professional reasons... If you liked that then you might like this..



In regards to my strategy happy to share and help if its useful. I can say it has been a long and arduous road and even today I still make many mistakes or look back at trades and know that I exited too early or did give the trade enough time to work so by no means do I think I have anything special...

So couple of different strategies, the one I have been using recently is:
- Scan 8-10 instruments that I follow - I trade Indices and Forex mainly
- Watch the 4 hour chart to get an idea of market trend over the last few days
- Down to the hourly chart and I'm looking for 'Pin Bars' or in Candle terms Gravestones or Hammers following a trending period. If formed on the the hourly..
- Down to the 15 minute chart and I'm looking for an entry. Need two consecutive candles to show that the price is stalling and I then look for an entry when the price attempts to get near the high of the pin bar
- Stop just outside high/low of the hourly candle and a trade risk/reward of between 1:1 and 2:1 dependant on how the price behaves once in the trade

And that's it - by no means the wholly grain right..

Its not perfect and I'm sure it can be improved in many ways but it works for me.. honestly because I think after 3 years of jumping the gun, or exiting early or just taking trades that were plain stupid, I'm able to take the trade more calmly and just allow it to work (or not) without messing too much (although I could still do with being more disciplined). I think this gives me my edge and I try and remember that at all times.

My return is somewhere between 2-4% on a monthly basis, or so it has been for the last 18-24 months... but I never take anything for granted. Still try and learn or read something new daily/weekly to keep me focused.

Another strategy that I like is finding trending stocks and entry when price is near the bottom of the channel - although I've been trading this one less recently and concentrating on the strategy above.

Final quick point is I use very strict money management to try and keep me form a. over trading and b. trading within manageable limits

hope its useful.. (sorry looks like it turned into 10 sentances )

So in terms of your automated trading - did you write the system yourself? or did you take another system and trade that? Plus how much capital are we talking about here?

I don't have alot of money to play around with (sub £10,000) but I am going to be trading full time for at least the next 3 months and its the first time I've attempted that. I thinks it going to be a very interesting ride..!!

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