my journal 2

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Old Feb 8, 2010, 10:03pm   #211
 
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it's hopeless...

Yamato started this thread The more i practice, the more accurate i get
The more accurate i get, the more i get into it
The more i get into it, the less i can use the stoploss
The less I can use the stoploss, the more i lose

The more i practice... the more i lose.

Just a while ago, I was acing the game. Made 200% return on the first stock, and similar on the following... by the fourth stock i was at 50k from the initial 10k. Well, guess what. I made a mistake: started losing... and the hell with the stoploss. I started praying that it wouldn't ruin my good streak of trades, and let it run till it took 50% of my account. By then I was so upset that I just quit the game. Exactly the same thing happens with real money. If I play like ****, using the stoploss is easy, and I can blow out my account within half an hour and hundreds of trades. If I play well, I will triple the account within a few trades, then quit when I incur a losing trade and almost blow out my account on it. So if I play well, I get into it, and lose everything. If I play poorly, I still lose everything. Whichever way, I lose everything. I cannot...

I cannot be in control of myself. I cannot handle losing. Losing makes me so insecure and unstable that I won't be able to appraise the chart correctly for the next ten trades.

The best thing would be if I could make 10 bets and leave, and then come back find out that 7 bets made money and 3 bets lost money. Then on the next day, I'd feel confident because overall I was right.

What screws me is the single bet and putting all my hopes in each single trade.

But then again, if I made 10 trades, I would trade carelessly because I'd feel they will all be good overall, so I don't need to try.

If I don't try, I am relaxed, but I lose. If I try, I am tense, I usually win, but as soon as I lose once, I feel like shooting someone. I feel wronged by the market.

I am considering quitting altogether. I can't seem to find a good balance.

Even paper trading alone is pissing me off. It's clearly impossible that I'll be able to handle real trading any time soon.

But of course I am not quitting trading. I would completely focus on automated trading. However it feels like crap to have to quit discretionary trading, after failing at it for 12 years. I failed so much at it, that I blew the winnings coming from automated trading.

One thing I learned: paper trade until you're profitable
From this whole experience I did learn one thing: paper trading closely mirrors my real trading, so there's no point in starting to trade again until my paper trading is calm, in control, and profitable. And possibly methodical and almost entirely mechanical (even when manually executed). What I did learn is that I won't lose any more money in trading because I won't start trading with real money until I will be ready. And I will know when I am ready just like now I fully realize that I am not ready, even by just playing the "chart game": I am clearly not ready. In these facts:

1) No clear method. I don't have any profitable rules written down, nor in my head. No clear ideas on what I should do. Yes, if I am in a good mood, I can definitely be profitable, but that comes and goes very quickly, and if it goes, I'll lose everything on the next trade, without any warning.

2) No stoploss habit and discipline. I don't have the certainty of using the stoploss, because I am not in control of my actions, once I get into trading. Particularly if I am doing well.

3) One profitable week with 10 daily trades. I didn't even produce a profitable week with 10 trades per day on IB paper trading account, trading a future that I would trade in real time with real money. That would be a minimum requirement before starting again. Behind me, there's 12 years of discretionary losses, unprofitable month after month. I can definitely wait one week of profitable paper trading before starting again. But that doesn't happen. That week never takes place.

Last edited by Yamato; Feb 8, 2010 at 10:14pm.
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Old Feb 8, 2010, 10:32pm   #212
 
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re: my journal 2

Yamato started this thread I have a great anxiety and energy to spend to try and change my life:

1) I don't like living with my father
2) I don't like working at the bank

If I quit the bank, I can move to the sea. I must find a way to quit job and quit house. That mother ****er just wished me goodnight again, by calling my name out loud, each mother ****ing time. We're just two in this house, why does he have to call out my name each time he says good morning, "good morning, travis", "goodnight travis", "hi, travis". **** you, man. You don't have to call my name each time. Each time I hear you I get a stomachache. If you call my name you give me insomnia. Each time he says "goodnight", I reply "goodnight" and then whisper "**** you".

Anyway, I must quit this place and this job. But what can I do? Trading discretionary is out of the question with this state of mind. My anxiety, my restlessness, my dad's voice, my desire to kill my boss... all these things interfere with my trading. A loss triggers all these feelings within me and I feel like killing the market, whereas it's a bunch of other people whom I should have killed earlier in my life, but I didn't and now I take it out on the market and on my own capital.

So discretionary trading is out of the question until I will have this state of mind, which could be forever or at least until I am here.

Yeah, because to get out of here, I need to trade, but if I am here I can't trade, so there is no way out.

The only way out is automated trading. Strictly automated without any intervention by me.

I wish I had that 13k I had when I started talking about this stuff in the Fall. Now I've got nothing thanks to my last attempts at trading discretionary. I blew it all.

I remember someone here, a reader wanted to give me his money, and luckily I didn't take it, because I would have lost it. And I remember I told these guys: do not try to teach me discretionary trading because it will be my ruin. But hell no: everyone had good advice: "it's easy", "do this, do that"... eventually I gave in, started again, lost everything.

I would have done it anyway probably. But it didn't help. This goddamn journal is a good thing for the discretionary trader, but not for the automated trader, who should just stay away from trading and trading forums, because he doesn't need... But I guess I wasn't fully automated either. Besides more good than bad came out of it.

Not that I am ending it here. Just a summary of the last four months, because that's how long I've been writing.

The possibilities now are two:

1) Making one trade a week on the GBP, just trades that I'm absolutely positive about, with a 90% probability of winning.

2) Taking my third loan from my bank, taking the usual 10k out, and trying to triple it again, then paying the loan back immediately, as I did in the past. This time I wouldn't blow it like I did before, by trying to "help" my systems.

Of course, no one can be sure that this time I wouldn't lose everything I borrowed and be screwed for the rest of my life. Who knows. It could happen.

The safest thing would be to trade the GBP once a week, only when I am absolutely positive. But guess what. That means that I could miss a stoploss, because that is what happens when I am absolutely positive about a trade. That's when I blow out my account.

Whatever I will do, I must remember not to kill myself nor kill anyone around me. That's the number one thing. Because if I die, then I can't get to the bottom of this thing. And if I go to jail, I won't be able to trade either. I want to get to the bottom of this thing. If it cannot be profitability with discretionary trading, at least profitability via automated trading, and I mean profitable every month. With the proper money management, and using only the good systems, and the us dollar index filter it can be done.

Plan:

1) Do not kill anyone
2) Do not kill yourself
3) Keep going to work as usual
4) Keep practicing the stoploss
5) Keep paper trading and do not invest real money until you're profitable

Last edited by Yamato; Feb 8, 2010 at 10:40pm.
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Old Feb 9, 2010, 2:41pm   #213
 
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re: my journal 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
Plan:

1) Do not kill anyone
2) Do not kill yourself
3) Keep going to work as usual
4) Keep practicing the stoploss
5) Keep paper trading and do not invest real money until you're profitable
Dude, you think you've got it bad? Well, somebody gave my journal a rating of 1 ! Can you dig the public humiliation?

But seriously, everyone has issues with their dads. The simple answer is, just accept them for what they are, humour them, live with it and every once in a while you might have to tell them, without anxiety or stress or anger or bad feeling, "look old man, thanks but give me a bit of slack here". Don't forget, you're the daddy now

Try to work out why it annoys you that your dad calls you by your name, and then deal with it. You want to be a trader - this sort of psychology has got to become chicken feed for you.

Looks who's talking, I know, not exactly Mr Trader 2010 but I'm just trying to help.

Oh and don't borrow the money to trade with, for the love of God! That's breaking Trading Rule # 3 or something.

Ps same applies to the boss as does to your dad. Should be like water off a duck's back. You've got a mission. It's 106 miles to Chicago, we've got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark, and we're wearing sunglasses. Hit it.
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Old Feb 9, 2010, 3:40pm   #214
 
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re: my journal 2

Yamato started this thread Good advice. It sounds reasonable. I had reached the same conclusions on my own, during my healthy states of mind. The problem is that I can blow out my account with just 5 minutes of unhealthy state of mind.

I don't know if I want to go to chicago. With the tank full of gas I could set myself on fire maybe.

Let me know if you want to do some work together on the systems. I am a big fan of automated systems, as you might have read.
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Old Feb 9, 2010, 4:31pm   #215
 
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re: my journal 2

Yamato started this thread Damn... these whores are screaming. The neighbouress is hosting some fellow whores and they are all yelling at each other and have been doing so for about an hour. This made it really hard for me to stay in control. Probably they're just "talking", according their own low vulgar rude habits and manners. Otherwise I would have heard a gunshot by now.

Anyway, I kept in control for a few stocks, then, as can be seen from the picture below, I lost it and my loss went wild:

snap1.jpg

This could very well happen in real trading. Unless of course I keep my trades down to one trade per day. Then maybe the neighbouress, the thoughts about my dad, the boss and all my enemies won't bother me and interfere with my trading. I hear voices. Sometimes real sometimes imaginary. Right now they're real: the neighbouress and fellow whores screaming. Other times the disturbing voices are the disturbing memories of all the abuses I had to put up with in my life: from dad, and all impolite people I came across. Being a polite person, I was brought up to not fight back and avoid confrontation. However this is what maybe now is disturbing me while trading: all the abuses are coming back to my mind and my ego is screaming for revenge. Every time I take a beating from the market, it's as if my ego said: "not again! I am not taking any more **** in my life". Then it proceeds to get mad at the market... and get killed basically. It might be healthier to bang on the wall, ring their bell, and call them whores. Or go there with an axe. These whores are still yelling. It's really pissing me off. I want them dead. Right now. It's interesting that I am someone who can withstand any type of stress and abuse and I don't explode, nor show any signs of being upset, but at the same time I totally lose control when I am trading. I am in control with people and out of control with trading. I never kick objects either, nor get mad at the screen, program... nothing like that. I am calm and in control. When trading instead I can't make over 50 trades in a row without failing to respect the stoploss. And I am talking about simulation. WIth real money, make it 5. So that means I'll need to last thousands of trades of complete stoploss discipline to be positive that I can use it with real money.
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Old Feb 9, 2010, 4:40pm   #216
 
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More stoploss training, with random entries

Yamato started this thread That's it. I have noticed that I cannot care about the trading game and use the stoploss at the same time.

The more I care, the more I win and get into it, but then I always fail to use the stoploss as soon as I incur a loss, because it bothers me too much to ruin my positive sequence of trades.

So here's what I will try: trade randomly, in a random direction, totally carelessly. Then if the trade exceeds 10% of loss or 10% of win, I'll close it. I'll do this for the next few hundreds trades. Today, tomorrow, and the next few days. To see if anything good comes out of it.
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Old Feb 9, 2010, 4:55pm   #217
 
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re: my journal 2

Yamato started this thread It's ok. I can do it.

snap1.jpg

I am going to use the genesis software now, to try and be profitable on the GBP, and make it go by one hour at a time. I found that the optimal timeframe is one hour candles and I found that I can play them on any future I want on their Trade Navigator software. I will do it now. It's certainly not the same as stocks. The GBP moves differently.

My training with the stoploss will have to continue for months. I can't get used to the idea of inflicting myself a wound, which is what taking a loss feels like. I think this is what I'll do (since I can use without caring, I can't keep on practicing with random trades): I'll try my best for 5 stocks at a time. If it works and I use the stoploss, then I'll try my best with 6 stocks, 7... and so on until it becomes a habit.
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Old Feb 9, 2010, 6:45pm   #218
 
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re: my journal 2

Yamato started this thread Did my share of practice and stoploss training for today.

Brought the 10k to 20k. Didn't fail any stoplosses. I am satisfied. Over 30 trades on about 10 stocks and did not fail one stoploss, with plenty of losses to test my nerves and my temper.

snap1.jpg

In the meanwhile, on the IB paper trading account, which closely mirrors the real account for costs, timeframe, and everything else, I only spotted one opportunity and failed my trade. I will only get another opportunity in hours or maybe tomorrow. This is what makes it so different and difficult: waiting. On the chart game I can select the right opportunity among weeks and weeks of charts, and if you play the weekly charts commissions and spread costs are irrelevant. Here if I try to see opportunities at this rate, I'd have to trade the 1-minute charts, but I can't because commissions would kill me. That's why people get leverage and trade stocks, using stock-scanners, so they can pick the best opportunity among thousands of different situations. However, I am not ready to do that. I don't have any knowledge in that area. I might end up doing automated trading, because it is going to be really hard to trade once a day or even less.

One thing I should definitely stay away from is trading with real money. Anything is allowed as long as I am paper trading. But i must not resume my trading with real money until I have solved all these problems.

I've also received the US Dollar Index data from disktrading, and next weekend I will backtest all my systems with the Dollar Index filter. I am making progress, very slowly, but I am moving forward. One step ahead every decade. By 2050 I should be profitable.

By the way:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index

The dollar index is mostly based on the EUR, so it might have been a total waste of money to buy it (15 dollars), because the rationale of my systems failing is basically this: i've 15 systems on JPY, EUR, GBP that mostly just go LONG. No wonder, when the EUR and the others are going in a downtrend, those systems lose money. Why didn't I think of this before? I've backtested those systems for ten years and thought they wouldn't fail because ten years is a long time: BUT the EUR has done nothing but go up for 10 years. Big problem. Look at this DX chart:

fsspon.png

I will simply backtest the EUR systems like this: if price is below 5 day moving average, then stay out, or even reverse signals. Similar for the GBP, JPY and so on.

Last edited by Yamato; Feb 9, 2010 at 7:18pm.
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Old Feb 9, 2010, 8:19pm   #219
 
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re: my journal 2

Yamato started this thread Ok, I've been testing the "EUR long term trend filter" (see post above). The EUR systems don't improve but that is not a proof that the idea is wrong, since the test period is just the past ten years, where things have gone well for the EUR (it's been rising towards the USD).

So, what do I do? I would need 20 years of data, but: it would be slow, I don't have the data, the data doesn't exist because the EUR didn't exist.

I can't reverse my systems just based on 6 months of forward testing. But I can definitely keep my systems from trading when the EUR is going down.

I can't do everything to perfection. I don't have the means. But the principles have to be good. No addictions, no trading addictions. Paper trading. Backtesting. These can be followed even with my limited means. And they guarantee no losses.
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Old Feb 9, 2010, 8:29pm   #220
 
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re: my journal 2

Yamato started this thread Anyway, i came up with a side-invention: the DX (US Dollar Index) filter. If we're above it, we can only go SHORT on the EUR and correlated markets. This will help me with my intraday trading. It will always tell the most probable direction: opposite the DX.

For example, now we're crossing below the DX, so from now on and for a while, all EUR-GBP-JPY-ES-CL trades should be LONG.

snap1.jpg

However right now we're still above it, so we should either stay out or actually look for SHORT trades on the EUR, even though I think we've reached bottom for a while. Another thing we could look at is where we are with regards to the pivot line. If we're above it, and below DX, it's safe to go LONG, and viceversa. All other situations, stay out? Who knows.... man, this is harder than I thought. Twelve years of this stuff and I still didn't figure out a way to make money. Anyway, my prediction for this week is that my systems will not make money as a group. And I am saying this because we're still above the 8-day ma on the DX.

Last edited by Yamato; Feb 9, 2010 at 8:40pm.
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Old Feb 9, 2010, 8:48pm   #221
 
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re: my journal 2

Yamato started this thread As i'm struggling, and feel like giving up, somehow this song came to my mind, a song which I never liked but that now describes how I feel and that's why it was playing in the back of my mind: in other words, I am not giving up.

The only thing that reassures is that in all these years of efforts I have always tried new things and haven't always made the same mistake over and over again. Every time I found new ways to lose my money. Wrong instruments at the start. Then wrong broker but right instrument. Then right instrument, right broker, but wrong strategy. Then right instrument, right broker, right strategy but wrong money management. Then when everything was ready, I had run out of money, and the systems stopped working anyway. I'm running out of mistakes to make. Maybe that's good. Because I'll have to focus on trying the same thing and do it better. For example, who knows what would have happened if I had focus on my "sniper" system I was talking about all the time two months ago? It was too much work and I quit it. I always get stopped by the boredom problem. I find things that might work, like waiting hours to make a shot (that strategy had 80% of wins). But then they're too boring and I look for something else. After all, I might have to go back to the sniper strategy. Plenty of filters, rules to be followed, just one shot per day allowed, and it made money almost every day.



Here we are, still together
We are one...
So much time, wasted,
Playing games with love

So many tears I've cried
So much pain inside
But baby it ain't over 'til it's over
So many years we've tried
To keep our love alive
But baby it ain't over 'til it's over

How many times
Did we give up
But we always worked things out
And all my doubts and fears
Kept me wondering, yeahhh
If I'd always, always be in love

So many tears I've cried
So much pain inside
But baby it ain't over 'til it's over

So many years we've tried
And kept our love alive
'Cause baby it ain't over 'til it's over

So many tears I've cried
So much pain inside
Baby it ain't over 'til it's over

So many years we've tried
And kept our love alive
'Cause baby it ain't over 'til it's over

So many tears I've cried
So much pain inside
Baby it ain't over 'til it's over

So many years we've tried
to kept our love alive
'Cause baby it ain't over 'til it's over (over, over)

So many tears I've cried
So much pain inside
Baby it ain't over 'til it's over

So many years we've tried
And kept our love alive
'Cause baby it ain't over 'til it's over (over, over, over)

So many tears I've cried
So much pain inside
Baby it ain't over 'til it's over (over...fade out)

Last edited by Yamato; Feb 9, 2010 at 9:01pm.
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Old Feb 9, 2010, 8:59pm   #222
Joined Feb 2010
re: my journal 2

From what i'm reading your systems seem to do better than your discretionary ( no offense at all ) . Many many traders are just fully automated, if you have a system which works, just let it run and over time it'll make money, set a maximum loss, and just have small risk per trade (1%) and watch your account grow .

However, you may want to go automated whilst learning discretionary on chartgame (you've got me hooked!).
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Old Feb 9, 2010, 9:03pm   #223
 
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re: my journal 2

Yamato started this thread I'm glad at least I did something good.

Let me know how you're doing and what difficulties you're finding, if any. Also, let me know your advice and ideas on what works.
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Old Feb 9, 2010, 9:15pm   #224
 
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re: my journal 2

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Old Feb 9, 2010, 9:16pm   #225
 
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re: my journal 2

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