Brendan's Trading Ideas

These are my preparation work when I am trading forex:

1. Identify a good entry level with risk reward ratio of 1:2.
2. Access the fundamental strength of individual currency. With the information, I will buy the strong currency and sell the weak currency to form 1 forex pair.
3. Follow the trades of the insiders who are in the industry. They are also call the Smart Traders because they know more than most people regarding that particular currency.
4. Find out the seasonal effect of various currency pairs. I want to buy during a strong season and sell during a weak season.

Let me share with you on point 3: Follow the trades of the insiders.

Using AUDUSD as an example. See the chart in attached. The upper panel shows the trades of the insiders and the lower panel shows the AUDUSD chart. We will buy when the insiders have bought huge contracts of Australian dollar. The insiders are the best market timers.

In early 2009, insiders had bought huge contracts of Australian dollar pointed by the 1st circle. AUDUSD had moved up from 0.6500 to 0.9000. This is a profit of 2500 pips.

In mid 2010, insider had bought huge contracts of Australian dollar pointed by the 2nd circle. AUDUSD had moved up from 0.8300 to 1.0000. This is a profit of 1700 pips.

In end 2011, insider had bought huge contracts of Australian dollar pointed by the 3rd circle. AUDUSD had moved up from 0.9800 to 1.0800. This is a profit of 1000 pips.

Now mid 2012, insider had bought huge contracts of Australian dollar pointed by the 4th circle. AUDUSD move up from 0.9800 to ????. We will see a huge profit again!

5 trade ideas, all market orders (Update):

Closed all the trades at market
1. Buy AUDUSD at 0.9744, closed at 1.0018 (Profit 274 pips)
2. Buy NZDUSD at 0.7586, closed at 0.7832 (Profit 246 pips)
3. Sell USDSGD at 1.2848, closed at 1.2760 (Profit 88 pips)
4. Sell GBPAUD at 1.5796, closed at 1.5512 (Profit 284 pips)
5. Sell GBPNZD at 2.0296, closed at 1.9844 (Profit 452 pips)
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Total profit: 1344 pips

If you are looking for my next trade, you can go to my home page.

Update on my Forex Contest. See attached.

Update on my Forex contest:

Extract from my homepage:

Internet is full of market commentary that try to make a prediction about the future. But there are very few that really mentioned if the past predictions have been correct or wrong. So I decided to write this newsletter to write about my trading gains and mistakes.

These past 3 months has been exciting and most importantly PROFITABLE. We have made a few assumptions in the market and all have come true.

1. USDJPY rises 800 pips from 76.00 to 84.00 from start of February to mid March. Reason is because US have a series of positive economic data and market expects US to rise interest rate pretty soon. Hence US treasury yield rises and this pushes USDJPY up to 84.00. However we feel that market’s expectation is WRONG. US economic data is good only for a temporary period. During this period USDJPY rise 800 pips within 2 months, to me this is simply too fast and too steep. So we had initiated a sell USDJPY trade at 83.32.

Our prediction is correct. Positive US economic data is only temporary. A LOUSY Non farm payroll data has changed market’s expectation on the interest rate direction. Market no longer feels that US will raise interest rate in the short term. US treasury yield falls and pushed USDJPY down as well. We had closed our USDJPY trade at 78.48 for 484 pips profit.

2. During the period of March to April this year, most of the major currencies (EUR, AUD, NZD, SGD) have turn weak and fell against the USD except for one particular currency. That currency is GBP and it strike out like a sore thumb. GBPUSD kept rising in the month of March and April while most USD crosses are falling. So I did some research to find out why. My research showed that GBPUSD remained strong because UK still holds AAA credit ratings and Olympics at London is coming. One analyst even commented that GBP is a safe haven currency.

In my mind this market expectation is WRONG. UK is in recession now and this means that AAA credit rating is at risk of downgrading. As for the Olympic, it will only create a short term positive sentiment. My job as a trader is to capitalize on market’s mistake. So I sold GBPUSD at 1.6040 and sold GBPJPY at 128.15.

Indeed I was right, GBPUSD and GBPJPY had a deep plunged after I had entered my trades. I managed to closed GBPUSD at 1.5706 with 334 pips profit and closed GBPJPY at 124.60 with 355 pips profit.

3. Trading opportunities come again in June. News of China economy slowing down is everywhere in the media. News of Greece possible existing Eurozone made matters worst. There are analysts debating whether is this a hard landing or a soft landing. This naturally pushed commodity currencies down and there are all trading at SUPER CHEAP PRICE. So I use this opportunity to buy AUDUSD at 0.9850, buy NZDUSD at 0.7550 and sell USDCAD at 1.0301.

Many of my students asked me why am I buying the commodity currencies. Is it because I feel that Eurozone crisis is coming to an end? Is it because I feel that China economy will start to pick up. My answer is all the bad news have been priced in. You only need a small good news to push the prices up.

A small good news did come up. Commodity prices start to rebound after Greece election (one less thing to worry). Greece election result shows that Greece will stay in Eurozone. I managed to close my NZDUSD at 0.7755 with 205 pips profit. My AUDUSD trade is still open, current price at 1.0188 give me a profit of 338 pips. My USDCAD trade is still open, current price at 1.0193 gives me a profit of 108 pips.

Update on my FX contest:

Update on my Forex contest:
I had achieved 56% profit in less than 1 month.

A cpl of questions:

who is running the forex contest? Please provide a link to the rules of the contest, and a link to the trade log for the contest. All contests allow at least this transparency, so I look fwd to you providing this.

Why do you not provide your name on the TTA website? Nothing under contact or about. I find this pretty odd seeing as though you are a vendor.

You obv don't know that trading contests encourage poor money management. I am surprised you don't know this though, as you claim to be so experienced.