Political Betting Journal

This is a discussion on Political Betting Journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; My portfolio as it currently stands is attached - will update over the next few days no doubt as things ...

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Old Jun 2, 2009, 8:52pm   #1
 
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Political Betting Journal

My portfolio as it currently stands is attached - will update over the next few days no doubt as things get even more interesting - these are very interesting times!

In general I just add to bets as I get more conviction (if they remain good value) the only exception in this case being the party leaders position I had, which at one point was heavily weighted to Brown/Cameron... I liquidated that for a small profit.

Also had to "deal OTC" by going through Ladbrokes at one point rather than on exchange (Betfair) due to lack of activity - got a free £25 bet out of it at least

If anyone else is interested in political betting, please feel free to add your bets to this thread
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Old Jun 2, 2009, 9:02pm   #2
 
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lol Im still filling my boots at 80/1 lib dems
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Old Jun 3, 2009, 4:13am   #3
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Hehe, according to the Appendix B of the parliamentary elections doc, you might just be able to squeeze a June election....

Its 15 days from the royal proclamation to the first day when the voting opens... not including sat and sunday.

If all goes well/badly on Thursday, the government could resign on friday, queen dissolves parliament on monday, election on the 29th....
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Old Jun 3, 2009, 11:18am   #4
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Quote:
If all goes well/badly on Thursday, the government could resign on friday, queen dissolves parliament on monday, election on the 29th....
There is a higher chance that Gordon Brown will join the Tories in my view. Why would the government resign regardless of how badly they do ? They will hang on until the end of this term and the worse things get the stronger they will hold.



Paul
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Old Jun 3, 2009, 11:32am   #5
 
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arabianights started this thread Currently trying to exit the Ed Balls position at firesale prices (and lock in a very small profit) - there's some rather large money for that market going against him. Of course they could easily be spoofs, but so be it.

Paul, what government? They're all going (although I agree June is no longer a sensible bet unless you can get 2000-1) - Blears is the latest.

PMQs is going to be brilliant
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Old Jun 3, 2009, 11:59am   #6
 
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arabianights started this thread Right, finished hedging chancellor risk there - I wish I had a bet on Ed Milliband, he seems the other obvious chap to back...

I think the most likely scenario regarding Balls is that those were spoofs; nevertheless in case they're money 'in the know' it was time to get out of that position.
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World's leading STIRs chatroom - www.propboards.com - register, then click on chat. Don't let the lack of posts on the forum put you off - the action happens in the chatroom. Targeted at locals, but hedge funds, brokers (including IDBs), market makers, and a few sizable amateurs are all represented. When it's quiet, banter is encouraged and anything goes.

No nuisance spread betters please. Anyone else welcome.
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Old Jun 3, 2009, 6:53pm   #7
 
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Originally Posted by Trader333 View Post
There is a higher chance that Gordon Brown will join the Tories in my view. Why would the government resign regardless of how badly they do ? They will hang on until the end of this term and the worse things get the stronger they will hold.



Paul
Or a more conventional analogy - you're in range trading mode. This is a breakout. Wall street crash type breakout

Political markets, like a lot of other prediction markets are interesting in that they over react far too much to rubbish most of the time, but then they react about as much to genuinely paradigm shifting type stories...
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Thanks! The following members like this post: Lord Flasheart
Old Jun 3, 2009, 7:53pm   #8
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arabian do you use bet trader??
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Old Jun 3, 2009, 8:02pm   #9
 
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arabianights started this thread Use a mac mate, otherwise I would use something like it... mind you I position trade bets, and 90% of them are political, so the betfair interface is enough for 90% of what I want. I'd quite like a binary interface and more order types though.
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No nuisance spread betters please. Anyone else welcome.
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Old Jun 4, 2009, 4:56pm   #10
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Political Satire

a bit of political satire to lighten up the mood.

Last edited by 96pills; Jun 4, 2009 at 4:57pm. Reason: forgot title
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