Political Betting Journal

My portfolio as it currently stands is attached - will update over the next few days no doubt as things get even more interesting - these are very interesting times!

In general I just add to bets as I get more conviction (if they remain good value) the only exception in this case being the party leaders position I had, which at one point was heavily weighted to Brown/Cameron... I liquidated that for a small profit.

Also had to "deal OTC" by going through Ladbrokes at one point rather than on exchange (Betfair) due to lack of activity - got a free £25 bet out of it at least

If anyone else is interested in political betting, please feel free to add your bets to this thread

lol Im still filling my boots at 80/1 lib dems

Hehe, according to the Appendix B of the parliamentary elections doc, you might just be able to squeeze a June election....

Its 15 days from the royal proclamation to the first day when the voting opens... not including sat and sunday.

If all goes well/badly on Thursday, the government could resign on friday, queen dissolves parliament on monday, election on the 29th....

There is a higher chance that Gordon Brown will join the Tories in my view. Why would the government resign regardless of how badly they do ? They will hang on until the end of this term and the worse things get the stronger they will hold.



Paul

Currently trying to exit the Ed Balls position at firesale prices (and lock in a very small profit) - there's some rather large money for that market going against him. Of course they could easily be spoofs, but so be it.

Paul, what government? They're all going (although I agree June is no longer a sensible bet unless you can get 2000-1) - Blears is the latest.

PMQs is going to be brilliant

Right, finished hedging chancellor risk there - I wish I had a bet on Ed Milliband, he seems the other obvious chap to back...

I think the most likely scenario regarding Balls is that those were spoofs; nevertheless in case they're money 'in the know' it was time to get out of that position.

Or a more conventional analogy - you're in range trading mode. This is a breakout. Wall street crash type breakout

Political markets, like a lot of other prediction markets are interesting in that they over react far too much to rubbish most of the time, but then they react about as much to genuinely paradigm shifting type stories...

arabian do you use bet trader??