Political Betting Journal

arabianights · Jun 2, 2009

My portfolio as it currently stands is attached - will update over the next few days no doubt as things get even more interesting - these are very interesting times!

In general I just add to bets as I get more conviction (if they remain good value) the only exception in this case being the party leaders position I had, which at one point was heavily weighted to Brown/Cameron... I liquidated that for a small profit.

Also had to "deal OTC" by going through Ladbrokes at one point rather than on exchange (Betfair) due to lack of activity - got a free £25 bet out of it at least

If anyone else is interested in political betting, please feel free to add your bets to this thread

Lord Flasheart · Jun 2, 2009

lol Im still filling my boots at 80/1 lib dems

tolland · Jun 3, 2009

Hehe, according to the Appendix B of the parliamentary elections doc, you might just be able to squeeze a June election....

Its 15 days from the royal proclamation to the first day when the voting opens... not including sat and sunday.

If all goes well/badly on Thursday, the government could resign on friday, queen dissolves parliament on monday, election on the 29th....

Trader333 · Jun 3, 2009

If all goes well/badly on Thursday, the government could resign on friday, queen dissolves parliament on monday, election on the 29th....

There is a higher chance that Gordon Brown will join the Tories in my view. Why would the government resign regardless of how badly they do ? They will hang on until the end of this term and the worse things get the stronger they will hold.

Paul

arabianights · Jun 3, 2009

Currently trying to exit the Ed Balls position at firesale prices (and lock in a very small profit) - there's some rather large money for that market going against him. Of course they could easily be spoofs, but so be it.

Paul, what government? They're all going (although I agree June is no longer a sensible bet unless you can get 2000-1) - Blears is the latest.

PMQs is going to be brilliant

arabianights · Jun 3, 2009

Right, finished hedging chancellor risk there - I wish I had a bet on Ed Milliband, he seems the other obvious chap to back...

I think the most likely scenario regarding Balls is that those were spoofs; nevertheless in case they're money 'in the know' it was time to get out of that position.

arabianights · Jun 3, 2009

Trader333 said:
There is a higher chance that Gordon Brown will join the Tories in my view. Why would the government resign regardless of how badly they do ? They will hang on until the end of this term and the worse things get the stronger they will hold.

Paul

Or a more conventional analogy - you're in range trading mode. This is a breakout. Wall street crash type breakout

Political markets, like a lot of other prediction markets are interesting in that they over react far too much to rubbish most of the time, but then they react about as much to genuinely paradigm shifting type stories...

96pills · Jun 3, 2009

arabian do you use bet trader??

arabianights · Jun 3, 2009

Use a mac mate, otherwise I would use something like it... mind you I position trade bets, and 90% of them are political, so the betfair interface is enough for 90% of what I want. I'd quite like a binary interface and more order types though.

96pills · Jun 4, 2009

Political Satire

a bit of political satire to lighten up the mood. YouTube - Gordon Brown

arabianights · Jun 5, 2009

I will slowly close some positions at these prices, no rush though...

oiltanker · Jun 5, 2009

is there a bet for the next speaker?

Lord Flasheart · Jun 5, 2009

Share of vote in local elections was Labour 23%,Tories38% and LIB DEMS 28%.They are still 80/1 and represent great value. I know this is only local elections but that 28% is so significant as is the area they won.The south west is traditionally the swing teritory and it went with a clear maj to lib Dems. A bit more momentumn and this will start moving and you heard it here first at 80/1.

Am I just convincing myself,so far I have over £100 put on and just want to lay it off

arabianights · Jun 8, 2009

I seem to have made something of an error, I am currently liquidating for (very) small profits as and when it seems appropriate...

arabianights · Jun 8, 2009

Oh, and the main attachment regarding that... done a little bit in other political markets but nothing too exciting.

I'm keeping the Ladbrokes exposure at present.

arabianights · Jun 8, 2009

Completely conceded defeat on the main betfair market on election date. A rather pathetic performance, but at least it's all green.

I have plenty of exposure still through Ladbrokes and the most seats/which date market though, so not a complete disaster... I'll still have £2500 profit if there's an election this year so it's not quite peanuts, but a lot less than I would been in line for this time last week.

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