ES tonight

This is a discussion on ES tonight within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; [QUOTE=MrGecko;780128] What is confusing me here is which set to choose - intuitivley, the floor pivots have the most appeal ...

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Old Jun 8, 2009, 6:28am   #358
 
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rathcoole_exile started this thread [QUOTE=MrGecko;780128]
What is confusing me here is which set to choose - intuitivley, the floor pivots have the most appeal because I can easily imagine they are the most popular
R_E do you have any preferences? /QUOTE]

to be honest, i floundered around at the start, precisely due to that same confusion - one day FTPs would work best and I'd think "eureka !", but the next DeMs would call a turn to the very penny and I'd think "aha, that's it".

I've just learned to accept that some days, some levels hold better than others.
So to simplify things, I typically use the Cams as my triggers nowadays although I always like to keep the others in mind as reference points, potential targets and potential stumbling blocks.

When I first came across Cams years ago, I dismissed them out of hand as just another gimmick or set of random numbers.
But several months later I read that large institutional banks use Cams not FTP in their large interbank FX dealing - (perhaps one of the FX pros can confirm or deny this ?)
Anyway, this lead me to re-examine Cams.

That lead me to learn about DeMark's pivots and how the 2 daily figures are supposed to predict the "boundary" of the following days action - which lead me to think, well what happens if that boundary is breached, surely then we have a substantial basis for a breakout/down ?

That lead me into the whole vortex of confusion comparing FTPs, Cams & DeM to see which one is "better".

At one stage I has numerous charts up and would sometimes be trading Long the FTP signal while simultaneously going Short the Cam etc - far too much like hard work !!

Finally I came to the conclusion that none of the 3 types is "better" than the others.

Looking at my arguments elsewhere on T2W that one could simply draw a horizontal line at random but still trade successfully as long as one had a sensible Plan, I drew the conclusion that rather than continuously fight and struggle the 3 set-ups, the best course of action may be to opt for one and accept that I'll maybe miss winners elsewhere and maybe have additional losers.
But as long as the Plan remains solid - ie I know what I'm going to do whenever price hits a certain trigger, i really don't think it matters all that much which set of figures you use.
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Old Jun 8, 2009, 6:32am   #359
 
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rathcoole_exile started this thread today's (Camarilla) figures are:
954
947

934
927
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Old Jun 8, 2009, 6:33am   #360
 
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rathcoole_exile started this thread and just to muddy the waters even more, as I've previoulsy mentioned, I sometimes trade pre-market using a tighter range, generated by using the VAH and VAL as the High and Low instead.
So for today, Monday 8th, pre-market triggers are:
944.5
942.25

938.75
936.5
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Old Jun 8, 2009, 6:36am   #361
 
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rathcoole_exile started this thread not that the VAH/L triggers were much cop for Sunday's session.

But I must admit, Monday is my least favourite day for trading this method, I just don't know how reliable the data from Friday is for Monday when there's been a limited session on Sunday ?
I just can't seem to get a handle on whether to ignore Sunday's activity, or to re-calculate the triggers with Sunday data, or whatever else ...... any suggestions ?
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Old Jun 8, 2009, 6:38am   #362
 
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rathcoole_exile started this thread one additional comment about taking contradictory trades - although I've pretty much ceased trying to trade FTP vs Cam vs DeM in opposite directions, I do still take weekly trades that contradict the daily trade - i just use a different account, target/stop criteia etc
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Old Jun 8, 2009, 6:53am   #363
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrGecko View Post
So of the three prices (Cam, PP, DeM) for eash level (R1, R2), it's just discretion- take the average, pick the one that has most technical significance, something like that?
i typically use Cam as my entries, but then I may use FTP or Dem either as Targets or even to add to my position, depending on momentum etc

for instance the weekly Cam triggers for w/c Mon 8th are:
963.25
951.75

929.25
917.75

the weekly DeM triggers are:
969.5

928.5


so on the Long side, a BreakOutLong from 963.25, I'll be cautious when price gets near 969.5 and will tighten my stops, fearing the end of the move.
BUT if price does push up through 969.5, I'll maybe add cars 'cos now there's no ceiling to how high price could go
(well, ok, FTP R2 at 979 seems the next level)

On the Short side, I'm going to me more cautious about trading the BreakDownShort from 917.75 since that is already way past the supposed lower boundary that the DeM indicates at 928.5
BUT this might make me more Bullish about the ReversalLong from 929.25, knowing we'd hit the DeM "bottom" at 928.5
(which also coincides with M-, the ReversalLong trigger on FTPs)
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Thanks! The following members like this post: MrGecko
Old Jun 8, 2009, 8:49am   #364
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I'm with you now... thanks for the excellent response!
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