ES tonight

This is a discussion on ES tonight within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by rathcoole_exile 924.50 reversal Short 910.00 reversal Long 47 minutes for 14 handles. that's 700 U$ per car ...

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Old May 7, 2009, 3:54pm   #271
 
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Originally Posted by rathcoole_exile View Post
924.50 reversal Short

910.00 reversal Long
47 minutes for 14 handles.
that's 700 U$ per car

I only mention it because this was achieved with nothing but PPs.
And yet I've seen 2 or 3 new threads today questioning the validity of PPs.

sorry to those guys, this is an indicator free zone .....
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Old May 11, 2009, 7:39am   #272
 
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Mon 11 May

rathcoole_exile started this thread No figures for last Friday, new baby arrived
Today's triggers will be: .....................................and for YM M9 :

938.5 breakout Long .................................................. . ..8620

931.5 reversal Short .................................................. ....8560

918.0 reversal Long ................................................. ......8470

911.0 breakdown Short ............................................... ... 8410

and for pre-market trading, as I've got some spare time today:
930.00 BL
927.25 RS
922.25 RL
919.50 BS
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Old May 11, 2009, 10:09am   #273
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Quote:
new baby arrived
Many congratulations


Paul
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Old May 11, 2009, 10:11am   #274
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Yup - Congrats...

BTW - I talked to Ben about Sinsot & he's OK about that but mentioned something about 'try before you buy' - I think you should negotiate with him directly...
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Old May 11, 2009, 10:19am   #275
 
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Originally Posted by rathcoole_exile View Post
No figures for last Friday, new baby arrived
Congrats!!!!
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Old May 11, 2009, 11:17am   #276
 
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Originally Posted by pedro01 View Post
'try before you buy' -
I'll schedule something for around July 2045 shall I, just as the 2 girls are leaving their convent ?
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Old May 11, 2009, 11:43am   #277
 
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918.0
911.0
.
.
.

919.50 BS
i noticed I'd just missed the 919.5 trigger so entered a trade at 918 with target 911 and set off back for Bangkok.
3 hours later, am back in the door, 7 handles to the good.
nice start to the week


might Short again at 919.5 if price reaches it before I switch over triggers to go Long at 918 later .......
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Old May 11, 2009, 1:36pm   #278
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I'll schedule something for around July 2045 shall I, just as the 2 girls are leaving their convent ?
LOL - they'll be old maids by then !
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Old May 11, 2009, 1:38pm   #279
 
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rathcoole_exile started this thread but importantly, still virgins !!
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Old May 11, 2009, 1:40pm   #280
 
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Yup - Congrats...
with Mum still in hospital and me back in Bangers, I'm off out with all my mates to celebrate

alone
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Old May 11, 2009, 6:12pm   #281
 
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Hello R_E,

I am new to this board and have been reading your posts with much interest...I am more accustomed to discussions on EW, Fib, Momentum etc... (your skepticism vis a vis these methods has been duely noted ) and find your discussion in this thread to be a refreshing view (I think that I have been suffering from some paralysis of analysis lately).

I noticed that you switched from posting the figures for the 3 different types of PP calculations and kill zones to just one set which you went on to describe in a later post amounted to a weighted average of elements from all 3 methods. With respect to this, could you perhaps expound a little more on the logic behind the weighting? For example, I observed in your example that you have placed 50% of the weight on the FTP followed by 30% on the CAM and 20% on the DEM. Is this your proprietary/favoured weighting or do you periodically revise based on market conditions?...Would an equally weighted average be just as good

Also, myself being more accustomed to indicators for the purposes of pulling the trigger on a trade, when you hit, say, the BOL line that you have defined, does this mean that you have drawn a line in the sand and decided to be long above this line "no matter what" (like if one of those indicators is in the middle of a momentum trend in the opposite direction) so that you are prepared to defend this point on the long side should price repeatedly oscillate around your level?

Thanks for any insight

Regards,

Ivor
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Old May 11, 2009, 9:37pm   #282
 
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rathcoole_exile started this thread ok, it"s been a difficult session, lots of chop, but price still hasn't got out of the LKZ.
so, for all those of you who have gone long, despite price never getting above RL 918, "what the f;ck were you thinking, you moron ??? stochastics ? pah ! macd ? yeek ! OBV ? perrleeze !

just my humble opinion, of course ......
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Old May 12, 2009, 2:44am   #283
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rathcoole_exile View Post
HKZ .................... Cam......... DeM ......... FTP
Breakout Long ........ 843.54...... 835.88....... 848.67
Reversal Short ........ 824.77 ..... 826.29 ...... 835.88

PP ...................... 823.08...... 816.69 ...... 823.08

LKZ .................... Cam ......... DeM ......... FTP
Reversal Long ........ 787.23...... 792.16 ...... 801.75
Breakdown Short ..... 768.46 ..... 767.63 ...... 780.42


bit of a clash at 835.88 - DeMark says go Long the breakout, FTP says Reversal Short.

I keep trying to narrow the 3 sets of figures down to just 1, but each time I convince myself to go with say, Camarillas, then FTPs outperform the others and so on.
Is this an indication of a fundamental flaw with this approach, ie that it's crap ? Or do I just continue to treat each set of numbers independently and take each trade as and when it comes ? Dunno

Hi Rathcoole,

In reviewing this post, couldn't one make an argument that playing all three methods seperately would add a level of diversification to the overall basket of trades that are undertaken in a day? That is to say, simulataneously playing a long from DEM level that coincides with FTP level for a short would produce a winner unless the market just chops about that level?

Someone I know who managed an actively traded HF did a back test on S&P data using a rather rudimentary stratgey that was able to beat the S&P in 80% of the historical period (only failed when there was no distinct trend for the year and lets face it, when you can only go long, you are leaving a lot on the table). Essentially, he chose to defend the opening level of the market at the beginning of the year by placing both a long and short trade at this point with respective stops 2% from this level. Once the market broke in a direction, one of the trades was closed and the other allowed to ride. If the S&P would come back down to the level during the year, the same setup would be initiated. Of course, an obvious refinement would be to defend a "level of interest" such as an important S/R line as opposed to the year's open which may not have any meaning.

Just a thought...

Cheers
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Old May 12, 2009, 5:58am   #284
 
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couldn't one make an argument that playing all three methods seperately would add a level of diversification to the overall basket of trades that are undertaken in a day?
absolutely, and I do try occasionally to do it. but without automation, it can get very busy very quickly and one needs to be on top of one's game with absolutely no distractions.
With a 2 year old running amok, I often prefer just to take the "easy"option of setting one trade and waiting for it to play out.
But you're right in what you say; if you can juggle it.
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Old May 12, 2009, 6:03am   #285
 
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Quote:
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could you perhaps expound a little more on the logic behind the weighting?
Ivor, no logic, just what I was playing around with. In fact most days now I just use the straightforward Cam levels

Quote:
Originally Posted by golfer_401 View Post
does this mean that you have drawn a line in the sand and decided to be long above this line "no matter what"
in theory, yes and since I don't have any indicators on, there's nothing to say otherwise.

Except "gut-feeling". For example last night price kept bouncing off exactly 911 and wouldn't break through it but it was enough to get me triggered and then stopped out.
So after a couple of attempts, I lowered my trigger level to 910...and hey presto !
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