Joey's MP Journal

This is a discussion on Joey's MP Journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; 1 1/2 hours into the RTH session is about the minimum time that must pass before 2-way balanced trade can ...

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Old Jul 7, 2008, 4:08pm   #16
Joined Mar 2005
Initial Balance

Joey25 started this thread 1 1/2 hours into the RTH session is about the minimum time that must pass before 2-way balanced trade can occur in the stock indices. This is called the Initial Balance.

At this point it's a good time to anticipate potential plays later in the day.

Today we have a narrow balance area between the high of the 4th July (1269.25) and that Minus Development area from the 2nd July (1275.75/1276.25).

An upside breakout form this narrow balance area will hopefully lead to a reaction from the 1280.00 area I'm interested in.

A downside breakout could lead to some single prints below 1268.00 leaving 2 potential trades of either the mean of the current balance area or a single print trade.

Only guessing of course, but it's good to write it down real time, like dbphoenix says.
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Old Jul 7, 2008, 5:19pm   #17
Joined Mar 2005
Potential Scalp

Joey25 started this thread There's a potential scalp setup, with confluence between the settlement price (1265.00) and a downward sloping support line on the 30-minute chart. With a stop placed just above the top of the overnight value area (1267.00), overall a good percentage play.

Specifically:

Plan A
Sell at 1264.25, with a stop at 1267.75, target at 1261.00

Needs a close of the current 30-minute bar below 1265.00, which seems likely. The fill needs to occur in the subsequent 30-minute bar.

Should that fail, I'll be switching to a standard "Single Print" play, which will be:

Plan B
Sell at 1264.75, with a stop at 1268.75 (above the big "spike" bar), with a target at 1261.00.

Other than that, it's a matter of waiting for a new balance area to form and take it from there.

Last edited by Joey25; Jul 7, 2008 at 5:49pm.
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Old Jul 7, 2008, 6:10pm   #18
Joined Mar 2005
Leaning on the Single Prints

Joey25 started this thread Another setup has presented itself. Where there is a balance area breakout followed by a large set of single prints, it is possible to "lean on" the single prints.

The current session has a huge set of single prints stretching from 1257.00 to 1265.25.
The 1257.00 corresponds to both the overnight low (1257.00) and the 4th July low (1256.50), so there is meaning to the level.

The trade is: sell at 1256.00, with a stop at 1259.75 and a target at 1252.50 (again a scalp trade as it is a trade within the current range).
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Old Jul 7, 2008, 8:50pm   #19
Joined Mar 2005
7th July Trades 2 & 3/ End of day

Joey25 started this thread Trade 2
Sold at 1256.00
Stop at 1259.75
Tgt at 1252.50
Exit at 1259.75
Gross p/l = -3.75

Trade 3
Sold at 1264.75
Stop at 1268.75
Tgt at 1261.00
Exit at 1262.50
Gross p/l = +2.25

Summary for the day
Gross p/l = 0.00 -3.75 + 2.25 = -1.50
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Old Jul 8, 2008, 12:01pm   #20
Joined Mar 2005
EPU8 Value Area for use 8th July

Joey25 started this thread Value Area High = 1266.00

Point of Control = 1247.25

Value Area Low = 1241.75
Attached Files
File Type: xls 7th July.xls (50.0 KB, 205 views)
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Old Jul 8, 2008, 2:20pm   #21
Joined Mar 2005
Thoughts going into the open

Joey25 started this thread Pending home sales data out at 9.00am.

I'm looking at the following "big picture" trade:

Sell at 1267.25, Stop at 1271.25, Target: trailing stop

It's the intersection of a trendline on the daily bar chart and a big level just above yesterday's value area, so if responsive selling is going to occur hopefully it will be here.
Attached Thumbnails
8th-july-big-picture.jpg  
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Old Jul 8, 2008, 7:03pm   #22
Joined Mar 2005
Potential scalp trade

Joey25 started this thread I've just put a new order in:

Sell at 1255.50, with a stop at 1258.50 and a target at 1252.75.

The objective is to short the current session's Point of Control.
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Old Jul 8, 2008, 7:18pm   #23
Joined Mar 2005
July 8th Trade 1

Joey25 started this thread Sold at 1255.50
Stop at 1258.50
Exit at 1254.00
Gross p/l: +1.50
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Old Jul 8, 2008, 8:09pm   #24
Joined Mar 2005
July 8th Trade 2

Joey25 started this thread Sold at 1267.25
Stop at 1271.25
Exit at 1267.50
Gross p/l = - 0.25

I have now entered the following order:

Sell at 1279.25, with a stop at 1282.50, target trailing stop

(This is the Point of Control from the 2nd July)
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Old Jul 8, 2008, 9:05pm   #25
Joined Mar 2005
End of Day 8th July

Joey25 started this thread Trade 1
Sold at 1255.50
Stop at 1258.50
Tgt at 1252.75
Exit at 1254.00
Gross p/l = +1.50

Trade 2
Sold at 1267.25
Stop at 1271.25
Tgt: Trailing stop
Exit at 1267.50
Gross p/l = -0.25

Total = +1.50 -0.25 = +1.25
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Old Jul 9, 2008, 10:49am   #26
Joined Mar 2005
EPU8 Value Area for use 9th July

Joey25 started this thread Value Area High = 1259.75

Point of Control = 1256.25

Value Area Low = 1247.75
Attached Files
File Type: xls 8th July.xls (48.0 KB, 189 views)

Last edited by Joey25; Jul 9, 2008 at 10:57am.
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Old Jul 9, 2008, 2:27pm   #27
Joined Mar 2005
Thoughts going into the open

Joey25 started this thread "Big picture" trade is:

Sell at 1279.25, with a stop at 1282.50, target: trailing stop

This is the intersection of the 2nd July Point of Control and the downward sloping trendline on the Daily bar chart.
Attached Thumbnails
july-8th-setup.jpg  
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Old Jul 9, 2008, 7:32pm   #28
Joined Mar 2005
Potential scalp trade

Joey25 started this thread Potential trade:

Sell at 1267.25
Stop at 1271.00
Tgt at 1263.75

Entry is targeted at the mean of a small balance area that has formed since about 11.30 Chicago time.
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Old Jul 10, 2008, 4:24am   #29
 
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Joined Jun 2007
Joey, was this a limit order ?

judging by the time of your post you didn't get triggered ?

I had a similar order in, but a stop sell order :-)

went to bed, found out i'd made 4.5 points in a 20+ move......ah well......... :-(

if i'd been able to stay awake (i'd like to believe) that I may have kept a portion of the trade open and gone with the runner.

but it's interesting observing the role of weekly S1 in all this - I'm sure MP shows the same thing, but S1 was the exact point that Monday's price dropped to like a stone, it was the approximate point of the bounce on Tuesday, then the precise close yesterday

garry
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Old Jul 10, 2008, 5:29am   #30
 
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Hi Joey. I just wanted to say that I'm new to T2W. I've come here to look for some chatter with others who are profile trading and I found your journal. I've been a profile trader for quite a few years now and I look forward to chatting more and following your trading journal.

Best of luck to you.

Frank
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