Nowler's Trading Journal

This is a discussion on Nowler's Trading Journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by DrSafari Ok, fair enough. As long as it's a deliberate choice of being a discretionary trader which ...

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Old Sep 28, 2017, 4:11pm   #9
Joined Sep 2017
Nowler started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrSafari View Post
Ok, fair enough. As long as it's a deliberate choice of being a discretionary trader which it obviously is. I still wouldn't recommend it for someone new to trading but we all have to walk our own paths. Maybe you will overcome your sense of being tied down in favour of the advantages of using a well defined system... or not and you will be succesful being a discretionary trader! Either way, I wish you the best.
I very well might my friend.
It would be foolish of me to try set things like this in stone at this early stage...maybe I will figure out a bit down the road that I cannot be a discretionary and instead should adopt that specific/rigid system. It's only a mini account at the moment....so the right place to be learning all of these lessons.

Thanks for the support my friend!
I get none at all in my home life so I'll take it where I can
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Old Oct 2, 2017, 4:16am   #10
Joined May 2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nowler View Post
I often find it difficult to explain things to people (probably due to dyslexia) but very often I understand it in my head, it's the transition from thought to explanation that struggle with. Which in this setting doesn't matter that much because as long as I understand, that's half the battle.
My read of your inability to put your thoughts into a set of written trade plan is not unique but is a common problem in the development path. Essentially you are trying a number of things (indicators et al) that are commonly discussed in the trading world. The problem is what do you do with a bunch of stuff and more importantly in determining what works or how do you get them to work coherently as expressed in a trade plan. For example do you use A, B, C or D, E, F or do you use all of them? How do you determine what is primary and what is secondary? is it necessary to use all of them or keep it simple? These are issues we all have to work through. Unless you define in your trade plan what you are using in determining your trade decision, entry , stop and target how do you evaluate success or lack of in your trade tools? Eventually you have to put thought into paper. If you cannot, your trade decision is simply a betting call lacking a basis in defining your trade.

A starting point is you need to define your trading time frame. You mentioned you day trade which to me means you are a session trader. What time frame charts do you use for making trade decisions? It is not a right or wrong answer but merely your choice project an insight on how you approach trade ideas.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nowler View Post
I fully realise the elevated risks involved with discretionary trading as opposed to a set narrow strategy. Discretionary trading requires more self-control and opens such a trader up to making more psychological errors than someone with a specific plan.
A discretionary trader is not without any method or that risk are elevated. What it means is that discretion is used in applying the appropriate methodology. For example a trend trade set up is different from a swing trade or a counter trade set up. The more experienced you have, intuitively trades are filtered even though the trade condition and set up are equally present.
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Old Oct 2, 2017, 3:48pm   #11
Joined Sep 2017
Nowler started this thread Thank you very much for the response mate!

I typically trade in the 1hr-15min window, though I will very often scan back and ahead in order to build up a better mental representation of the situation. I do sometimes drop down to the 1min-5min but that's just to have a closer look at what's happening when I'm looking to pull the trigger on a trade...ie. finding the best entry point I can find so that I can quantify my risk better.

While I do find it difficult to explain non-trading things anyway, even things I know well, I find added difficulty when trying to explain a set strategy because it all depends on the set up. All I can say is as standard I place my stop loss to cover my butt and I take on trades where I stand to get around a 1:1 risk/reward at least. Using my MACD to ensure momentum is on my side is another staple. After that, it would be easier for someone to ask me why I would or wouldn't take a specific example...then I can show exactly what my rationale is.

While I just said I typically trade in the 1hr-15min window, I only just put on 2 trades last night which are far longer term trades (Long on the USD/SGD and CAD/SGD in the weekly). These were practice trades where I identified that the SGD lowered their interest rate last time as opposed to the USD and CAD who either kept their rate as is with a view to increase, or in the case of the CAD increased it last time, also with a view to potentially increasing it again soon.

Basically, in my head, the SGD is going to lose ground on both of those currencies. I then looked at the chart and saw a nice fractal forming on both trades, adding further confluence that the USD and CAD will gain on the SGD for a while. Typically my trades are in and out within 2-5hrs or maybe overnight but these will likely run for a week or more...keeping an eye on economic releases. If they steam ahead like I am expecting both to do, then I might look to jump on any retracements they might offer, or perhaps just let them do their job and I go scout for short term opportunities while I wait on them.

My capital is up 6.9% since about 2 weeks ago and I have placed many trades. Granted it was after a fall from 16.2% 1 week ago where I made a rookie mistake (last monday) and lost a lot of profits. Thankfully I learned something from it...so cheap lesson

Last edited by Nowler; Oct 2, 2017 at 3:56pm.
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Old Oct 6, 2017, 12:33am   #12
Joined Sep 2017
Nowler started this thread I just realised that my broker doesn't show gaps on my charts...
Hmmm
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Old Oct 6, 2017, 1:57pm   #13
Joined Sep 2017
Nowler started this thread Month 4 - Week 3:

A good 24 hours for me and the NFP was also good to me.
Currently up about 7.5%

Just waiting on the GBP/USD to drop a bit lower to my TP and also to see what's going to happen with the CAD/SGD. The latter is still costing me about .2% or so...but the Canadians do have a release soon, so I might hold out for that.

All in all, a good way to close out the week!
And I have been offered a few hours working in the local bar!! On an ad hoc basis, but still...awesome for me!


EDIT: Scratch that, closed the CAD/SGD...it wasnt doing what I have predicted, so I no longer know what's going on. Bail out

Last edited by Nowler; Oct 6, 2017 at 2:07pm.
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Old Oct 6, 2017, 2:31pm   #14
 
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Joined Jul 2017
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nowler View Post

As a matter of fact, what do you folks think about me aiming for 10% per week?
I will not try to force it obviously. If the trade isnt there then it isnt there... I'll class anything over 5% as a successful week.
Hello Gavin, I like your story and admire your openness, so I really hate to burst your bubble, but those numbers are just crazy, consider the most successful hedge fun in history is averaging 70% per year! Any hedge fund above let say 20% (2xthe market) on average per year is consider very good...

Here are calculations with 5% a week over 10 years with staring capital of $1000 = you'll have $185 437 424 464 626 and will be the richest man in the world... Here is the result for your 10% for just 5 years: $25 547 139 533 267 132 , I don't think we have that many grains of sand on the planet...

Frankly speaking you cannot make living with starting capital of $1000, $10000 or even $100000 , so the faster you realize it, the better it would be for you...

Sorry mate...
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"If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die." Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.

My number 1 trading rule: EDUCATE YOURSELF!

Before you trade even single penny on the stock market, please spend the time and educate yourself by back testing different trading strategies and ideas - go to eBay and search for "historical stock market data", you can buy 20 years of data for less than $100 - that's all you need to start.
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Old Oct 6, 2017, 3:37pm   #15
 
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Hi Nowler, I gave you your first thumbs up, good luck & don't let me down
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if you have a little volatility, half an idea where sh^t will turn, and a reasonable stop, I might be able to start making $ off this venture
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Old Oct 6, 2017, 4:48pm   #16
Joined Sep 2017
Nowler started this thread
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Originally Posted by Quantt View Post
Hello Gavin, I like your story and admire your openness, so I really hate to burst your bubble, but those numbers are just crazy, consider the most successful hedge fun in history is averaging 70% per year! Any hedge fund above let say 20% (2xthe market) on average per year is consider very good...

Here are calculations with 5% a week over 10 years with staring capital of $1000 = you'll have $185 437 424 464 626 and will be the richest man in the world... Here is the result for your 10% for just 5 years: $25 547 139 533 267 132 , I don't think we have that many grains of sand on the planet...

Frankly speaking you cannot make living with starting capital of $1000, $10000 or even $100000 , so the faster you realize it, the better it would be for you...

Sorry mate...
Hello and thanks for the input my friend!
I also really appreciate the cautiousness at letting me down

I may be incorrect about making, on average, 10% per week. It was just a figure I was currently around at the time and I wanted to set a target. If it's less then it's less. I am only 4 months and 3 weeks knowing what trading is. I do however disagree with some of what you say, or at least accuracy of some of it.

I noticed your name and immediately noticed that we have considerable polar opposite machine parts in our systems. In fact, one could probably easily argue that you are the one with cogs in the machine and that my "machine" is run by different parts...perhaps some sort of adjustable pulley system.

I read your profile in order to build up a mental representation of who you are as a trader and where you're coming from. It seems that you are a strong believer in mechanical trading? As opposed to discretionary trading? In fact, you would probably deem discretionary trading as a very bad idea? Would this be correct?

As I said, I may very well be wrong. I have no long standing impression of this trading world, so who am I to say you are wrong? But I really must (with my shallow pool of trading experience) disagree to some point with what you said.

While I don't really know the ins and outs of hedge funds, I assume that they are very strictly run in a mechanical way? At least for the most part? I have been listening to a lot of people and from what I gather, in terms of freedom to trade, they are an elephant and I am an hawk. While they are big and experienced, like the elephant they are less mobile than the hawk. I can make a trade in an instant if I wanted, they have red tape to get past. I remember hearing a few people say that dockets have to be filled, filed and approved before these big boys (banks/hedge funds, whatever) can execute a new trade. I on the other hand I am the judge, jury and executioner. Another thing to consider is their motivation compared to mine...

I highly doubt that many of them working harder on this than I am! They very well might have worked as hard or maybe even harder than me when they were at the same stage. I doubt it though. I have taken to this like a duck to water! I'm not saying that I know it all, i'm just saying that I thoroughly enjoy this on so many levels! The discipline! The challenge! It's so humbling! I also have the motivation of providing a better life for my family (even if they are unsupportive pains in my ass). I am not doing this so I can roll around in money. We are poor! What many traders would scoff at would take huge financial burden off of us! Most likely extending our lifespans...

Another thing is that those big boys are not willing to risk as much as me. I don't think I am wreckless either. I may be overextending a bit by placing 4% on some trades but I certainly see a place it. It can be scaled on either if the situation allows for it by jumping on again after a retracement or whatever. Even if I was to rein myself in a bit and only go beyond 2% when it's a retracement on a strong trend, or some other very high probability trade. Then I could perhaps scale up to 4%...

Also, perhaps I should have been clearer but I don't plan on making such % returns for a long time. I would like to, over time, reduce the time I spend trading, reduce the risk per trade, as well as the leverage. This is all negatively correlated with my capital. The larger that grows, the lower my risk and effort gets. I like trading but I don't want to spend all of my days staring at the screen

In regards to your calculations.
I was only throwing out figures as rough estimates. Even by just projecting the 10% per week ahead, it built up a mental representation that I can now work with. I can manipulate it and play with scenarios. I know it's insanely unlikely to be able to turn over such returns each and every week. It's just an educational estimation.
However, my biggest criticism of what you said was the part about not being able to make a living if I started with 1, 10, or even 100k! Again, I am poor my friend. If I had 100k then I would only need to make .8% per month to be better off than I currently am. If I had 10k capital then I would need to make about 8% per month to be better off than I currently am. Then with 1k capital I would need about 80% per month to be better off.

I know for a fact that apart from luck, I wouldn't be able to equal my current income with just 1k capital. 10k however, I am very optimistic. I may be wrong but I currently disagree with your certainty. I also said that I was not just trying to turn 1k into a living. I am committing to this for the long haul. I will be adding capital injections when I can too. I am trying to get a few things going also.

I am after buying a few domain names and plan to try gain revenue for my trading account from the ads on those. Even if it's only a trickle, it better than nothing. At the very least it's a hobby and with the following bit, I gain some presentation skills/experience. One this sites is a trading site too which is basically an educational site such as investopedia (not published yet as I need to gain more experience). I got myself a budget green screen, recording setup, marker board etc for going through the basics with beginners (videos on youtube too). Eventually building it up to advanced. I also like to play darts. I have a board up and can trade from the same room. So it's basically a distraction from staring at the screen but also allows me to be close by if I need to intervene in an ongoing trade and also offers a possibility of additional income, maybe.

I am quite fond of darts and I would like to enter a few local competitions and maybe if I become good enough I can enter the lower competitions internationally. This fits hand in hand with trading. Both complement each other and both can be done on the road. I am probably not good enough to win money at it yet but hypothetically, if I did make very small money from it, as long as my travel costs are covered then I can feed the rest into my account.

Also, didn't Charlie Burton turn 10k into 100k in 2 years and 9 months? I may be a little off but wasn't his whole selling point that his account was there for everyone to see? Verifying that he did in fact do it? He set out to do it in 2 years but it took almost another year. I am not basing my hopes on that of course. That's just an additional bit for my view of things.
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