I want to be, the very best, like no one ever was

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Old Sep 11, 2016, 6:27pm   #1
Joined Mar 2015
I want to be, the very best, like no one ever was

Hello everyone.

I wrote a journal on this site over a year ago, however my trading was quite a mess and my analysis lacked follow through. Since then I have not given up and have been studying the charts every day, determined to become one of the best.

ABOUT ME

- Unemployed economics graduate
- lost £2,200 to the monster that is the market (so far)
- trade purely on technical analysis
- top down analysis from weekly down to daily, 4hr and hourly timeframes
- only 'indicator' used is 10 period EMA
- instruments traded: FOREX and major commodities (oil, gold, platinum)
- account size £500

STRATEGY

- entering breakouts/trend changes/contractions and expansions in volatility on one time frame in confluence with the time frame above.
- taking profits at 3,2 and even 1 RR

some of you might think i'm crazy for taking trades at 1:1 risk-to-reward however my studies of charts show me that these trades have extremely high success rates.

will be posting technical analysis, trade ideas, statements and general thoughts on the markets.

let the games commence.
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Old Sep 11, 2016, 6:37pm   #2
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Trading on pure technical analysis is the reason you are losing in fx.
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Old Sep 11, 2016, 6:38pm   #3
Joined Mar 2015
dgtrading started this thread we'll see.

i've analysed every single losing trade and found technical reasons behind the loss.

I know plenty of successful traders who trade technicals alone
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Old Sep 11, 2016, 6:46pm   #4
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Originally Posted by dgtrading View Post
we'll see.

i've analysed every single losing trade and found technical reasons behind the loss.

and as you keep on losing, your list will grow of technical reasons for each loss.

I know plenty of successful traders who trade technicals alone
No you don't, otherwise you would not be here doing this experimental trading.
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Those are my principles and if you don't like them, well..... I have others.

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Old Sep 11, 2016, 6:58pm   #5
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Over analysing technicals is just going to to make it worse for you.
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Old Sep 11, 2016, 7:15pm   #6
Joined Mar 2015
Platinum short 2pm Friday 9th September (UK time)

dgtrading started this thread 4hr chart

nice bearish hammer candle with solid close in confluence with previous low and 10EMA

1hr chart

zooming into 1hr chart we can see the whip up followed by a large bearish engulfing candle

Daily chart

in the short term we can see the upward snap in price creating a new high in the very short term, however this high is very minor, the price action on lower time frames shows how price came down to the high (the grey level) before whipping up and the hammer bar closing below the grey level

[Uzoomed out daily chart [/U]

zooming out on the daily chart we can see a short term lower low produced.

weekly chart

yes the trend appears to be bullish, however weakness is starting to appear in the form of lengthy upper tails on the candles

RISK £30 REWARD £30

RESULT £30
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Old Sep 11, 2016, 7:16pm   #7
Joined Mar 2015
dgtrading started this thread longer term trend

zooming far out on the weekly chart we can see the overall trend is still bearish, which adds more weight to trades on the short side
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Old Sep 11, 2016, 10:21pm   #8
Joined Mar 2015
Forecast analysis week 12th-16th September

dgtrading started this thread possible AUD weakness and possible GBP strength

- we could see a sharp pop in GBP/AUD if price breaches the previous swing high, this is due to the break in the bearish trend line and inside bar formation this week, it also might be overextended in terms of the major trend and might be forming a swing low. however i'm not betting any money on this.

- we could also see a harsh drop in AUD/USD if price breaches 0.75, this is due to the long upper tails on the candles at major resistance, and price may be ready to continue the bearish trend on a zoomed out weekly chart.

additional dollar strength

- dollar strength could be present on other instruments this week, if Platinum breaks below 1040 we could see a harsh drop in price
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Old Sep 12, 2016, 7:17am   #9
Joined Feb 2002
I wondered if this might help inform your analysis. Only watch half of it myself yet but a neat time-line and rationale for recent currency movements.

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Old Sep 12, 2016, 7:25am   #10
Joined Jan 2014
Quote:
Originally Posted by dgtrading View Post
Hello everyone.

I wrote a journal on this site over a year ago, however my trading was quite a mess and my analysis lacked follow through. Since then I have not given up and have been studying the charts every day, determined to become one of the best.

ABOUT ME

- Unemployed economics graduate
- lost £2,200 to the monster that is the market (so far)
- trade purely on technical analysis
- top down analysis from weekly down to daily, 4hr and hourly timeframes
- only 'indicator' used is 10 period EMA
- instruments traded: FOREX and major commodities (oil, gold, platinum)
- account size £500

STRATEGY

- entering breakouts/trend changes/contractions and expansions in volatility on one time frame in confluence with the time frame above.
- taking profits at 3,2 and even 1 RR

some of you might think i'm crazy for taking trades at 1:1 risk-to-reward however my studies of charts show me that these trades have extremely high success rates.

will be posting technical analysis, trade ideas, statements and general thoughts on the markets.

let the games commence.



You're going to blow up.
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Old Sep 12, 2016, 2:46pm   #11
Joined Mar 2015
dgtrading started this thread lots of AUD weakness and USD strength across the board so far today, looking to enter on retracements with confirming price action

* all cash at the moment no trades*

Last edited by dgtrading; Sep 12, 2016 at 2:54pm.
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Old Sep 12, 2016, 2:53pm   #12
Joined Mar 2015
dgtrading started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by tomorton View Post
I wondered if this might help inform your analysis. Only watch half of it myself yet but a neat time-line and rationale for recent currency movements.

I watched some of it, the guy just mumbles random hypotheses on the market in conjunction with his technical analysis, and some of his charts are a mess.

I prefer to keep a clear mind and listen to my own brain.

thanks for the input though
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Old Sep 12, 2016, 4:13pm   #13
Joined Mar 2015
dgtrading started this thread watching UER/GBP for a 4hr close below 0.84385 to possibly go short
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Old Sep 12, 2016, 9:54pm   #14
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dgtrading View Post
Hello everyone.

I wrote a journal on this site over a year ago, however my trading was quite a mess and my analysis lacked follow through. Since then I have not given up and have been studying the charts every day, determined to become one of the best.

ABOUT ME

- Unemployed economics graduate
- lost £2,200 to the monster that is the market (so far)
- trade purely on technical analysis
- top down analysis from weekly down to daily, 4hr and hourly timeframes
- only 'indicator' used is 10 period EMA
- instruments traded: FOREX and major commodities (oil, gold, platinum)
- account size £500

STRATEGY

- entering breakouts/trend changes/contractions and expansions in volatility on one time frame in confluence with the time frame above.
- taking profits at 3,2 and even 1 RR

some of you might think i'm crazy for taking trades at 1:1 risk-to-reward however my studies of charts show me that these trades have extremely high success rates.

will be posting technical analysis, trade ideas, statements and general thoughts on the markets.

let the games commence.
you are to be commended for trying..and i would say the chances of you being the very best..like no one ever was..is..very very slim..as you are doing exactly what everyone else does..so..you are going to get the same results as everyone else

tip..which i know you will not take..but here it is anyway

concentrate on 1 market that you can trade at any time..but preferably be available to trade it's key times..trade what you see happening in front of you..forget about what if this and what if that..as that is only a fool's game

if you can not make some money trading what is actually happening..then the chances of you making money trading based on what has already happened..are very very slim indeed

let's see if you prove me wrong..or prove me right?
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Old Sep 12, 2016, 10:48pm   #15
Joined Mar 2015
dgtrading started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lúidín View Post
you are to be commended for trying..and i would say the chances of you being the very best..like no one ever was..is..very very slim..as you are doing exactly what everyone else does..so..you are going to get the same results as everyone else

tip..which i know you will not take..but here it is anyway

concentrate on 1 market that you can trade at any time..but preferably be available to trade it's key times..trade what you see happening in front of you..forget about what if this and what if that..as that is only a fool's game

if you can not make some money trading what is actually happening..then the chances of you making money trading based on what has already happened..are very very slim indeed

let's see if you prove me wrong..or prove me right?
yes I appreciate your advice, I haven't taken any trades based upon my 'what if' ideas for this week and I never will, I always wait for confirmation and specific price action factors that I am looking for.

no trades today as I have become very fussy in regards to the quality of trades taken nowadays, which can't be said about my previous trading history.
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