journal of trader formally known as wasp

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Old Jul 28, 2006, 2:58pm   #25
 
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Hi Wasp

If I can add my thoughts.

I have a system which does produce good results if I follow it.
But fear often takes over and corrupts the system.

But I know take into account other systems to get my exit points.
Today I had an entry at 1.8630 and under normal condition I would be looking for 1.8720 to exit.
But
R1 using Pivot point comes in at 1.8661
and
Fib 61.8% form the May high at 8660-70.
I don't use either but lots of people do so exit on this trade was 1.8655.
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Old Jul 28, 2006, 3:52pm   #26
 
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wasp started this thread Big pippin in the Alba thread. Whilst I don't really know his system, his pure unbiased determination to stick by his rules and acceptance that regardless of what happens, will be profitable in the long run is an inspiration. Sometimes there has been such kick in the teeth days that most would give up, he doesn't in which I find commendable.

Today I shall stick by my rules and this weekend I shall spend alot of time testing, comparing and checking until I am 200% convinced the current plan is the best action and so next week will see more discipline than I have ever managed before.
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Old Jul 28, 2006, 3:57pm   #27
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wasp
Morning DB,

I don't think my win rate % is a problem really. The ratio is fine as long as I don't jump ship too early as the size of the winners vs the losers enables for a good overall performance in profitability, month end.

I agree I should be constantly noting everything at the time and I do jot notes on the chart during the day as things progress, the end result at 8pm this evening will be all my notes summed up.

My problem is right NOW... I am long cable from 592 and its currently bouncing its head at 655. Now my system says stay in till 8pm or if it signals a reversal, exit and either finish or reverse depending if its before 3:30. My desire is to move the stop nice and tight to lock in profits regardless. Overall through tests, 8/10 will work out best if I stay in till the end (see 3 original charts) but as soon as this starts pulling back, paranoia will set in and I'll expect it to drop back to 600 area...
wasp

In these situations why not feed your fear a snack and close up the stop on half your position (as db suggested earlier I think) letting the rest run in accordance with your system. If your trading log shows the overall £ outcome from what you did and what the overall £ outcome would have been had you stuck to your system you will soon build up a history to tell you if your "off system" interventions are worth it or not. I doubt you would be able to do this via back-testing since you won't feel the fear.

Hope this is helpful.

good trading

jon
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Old Jul 28, 2006, 6:24pm   #28
 
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Discipline

wasp started this thread Prevailed over all....

A decent day in all. I followed my rules to the letter and it worked out just fine and I can relax (a bit anyhow!)...

Pip amounts per side, discipline was followed and I'm happy...


Add- There were a couple of trades in the morning which both reveresd to breakeven-ish so not really important re: my issues.
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Last edited by wasp; Jul 28, 2006 at 6:30pm. Reason: Addition
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Old Jul 28, 2006, 6:35pm   #29
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dbphoenix
All of which is another way of saying that you don't trust your plan. And the most likely reason for that is insufficient testing. There may also be problems with the plan itself, but since I don't know what it is, I can't speak to that.

In any case, if you're in this condition "now", and you're in a trade, I suggest that you exit immediately and regroup. Throwing money against the wall and hoping that it sticks will not likely accomplish much that is productive.
Ahh, it does work and I know it does but, I know there will be occasions where it will stop and drop (or rise) against me much quicker than my system can adjust to and its those trades I try (too hard) to protect.

Nothing works all the time and I am now trying to install in my mind that the good beat the bad which, a backtet of 20 years can prove in theory, its in practise thats the problem.

Next week I shall be trading the current plan to the letter and if the % is not in my favour, then I shall re study the plan, if it does work out better, hopefully I will keep to it from then on. In essence it is akin to throwing money against the wall but unless I try these things, how will I ever know?!
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Old Jul 28, 2006, 6:43pm   #30
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wasp
Ahh, it does work and I know it does but, I know there will be occasions where it will stop and drop (or rise) against me much quicker than my system can adjust to and its those trades I try (too hard) to protect.

Nothing works all the time and I am now trying to install in my mind that the good beat the bad which, a backtet of 20 years can prove in theory, its in practise thats the problem.

Next week I shall be trading the current plan to the letter and if the % is not in my favour, then I shall re study the plan, if it does work out better, hopefully I will keep to it from then on. In essence it is akin to throwing money against the wall but unless I try these things, how will I ever know?!
Whether the 20 years' backtest is of value to your realtime trading is debatable. As to "unless I try these things, how will I ever know?", that's what the testing is all about. You should know by now, for example, what your biggest loss was and what your longest uninterrupted string of losers was. Without that, you are likely to lean too heavily on hope and, consequently, be vulnerable to doubt, anxiety, and fear.

All you should be "feeling" after entering a trade is curiosity.
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Old Jul 28, 2006, 6:55pm   #31
 
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wasp started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by dbphoenix
All you should be "feeling" after entering a trade is curiosity.

And that, is just where I'm trying to get to.

I know all the stats, they are next to me at my desk. Despite that, until I have time actually trading real time with these rules and proving them with money on the line, I won't be at that stage. Hence the journal to help me keep on track, follow the rules and stick to them till the point that all I do "feel" is curious.

Thanks db...

Good weekend all...
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Old Jul 28, 2006, 8:09pm   #32
 
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pivot indicator

wasp started this thread Something I've been loosely looking at has been the pivots and have downloaded an indicator via the metatrader forum to automatically plot and place them on my chart. Its not for the system just as curiousity to watch the reactions at these levels.

For some reason Monday doesn't work. anyone know how I can solve this?
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