Early Morning Range Breakouts using time and sales

This is a discussion on Early Morning Range Breakouts using time and sales within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Daysummary Normally I don't trade thursdaymorning, but I was at home and looked at some charts. Probably I didn't make ...

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Old May 24, 2012, 10:32pm   #201
 
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Re: Early Morning Range Breakouts using time and sales

robocop started this thread Daysummary

trades-05-24.jpg

onxx2.jpg

crus2.jpg

Normally I don't trade thursdaymorning, but I was at home and looked at some charts.

Probably I didn't make these trades in practice if I am not able to stay with my pc constantly for the time needed.
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Old May 28, 2012, 12:07am   #202
 
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Re: Early Morning Range Breakouts using time and sales

Had on nice trade on PAY on Friday morning, picked up $1

Click the image to open in full size.

Guess the US is on Holiday on Monday, and I've got a lot of work on the rest of the week so, wont have much time. its difficult to fit daytrading around other businesses. Seems to get you out of the rhythm of it. Anyways its just another challenge that need to be overcome. I'm looking forward to the next time I can trade.
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Old May 28, 2012, 1:46pm   #203
 
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Re: Early Morning Range Breakouts using time and sales

robocop started this thread
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Originally Posted by WinAtTrading View Post
Had on nice trade on PAY on Friday morning, picked up $1

Click the image to open in full size.

Guess the US is on Holiday on Monday, and I've got a lot of work on the rest of the week so, wont have much time. its difficult to fit daytrading around other businesses. Seems to get you out of the rhythm of it. Anyways its just another challenge that need to be overcome. I'm looking forward to the next time I can trade.
Nice trade, good low risk entry and nice exit at the Low of the day. You didn't used the ema as an exit, what did you decide to get in/out the trade?

Cheers,
Robocop
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Old May 29, 2012, 11:14am   #204
 
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Re: Early Morning Range Breakouts using time and sales

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Originally Posted by robocop View Post
Nice trade, good low risk entry and nice exit at the Low of the day. You didn't used the ema as an exit, what did you decide to get in/out the trade?

Cheers,
Robocop
Hi Robocop

I closed the trade based on 2 reasons.

Firstly, there was a big Bar down, larger than all the other bars in the chart. This normally leads to a reversal or at least a pullback. Secondly, I had hit a nice profit on the trade, and wanted to keep it, it was also coming close to lunch time and I dont keep trades after 12noon. When the price moves far away from the moving average, a lot of the time it will be pulled back.

This one worked out well.

Winattrading
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Old May 29, 2012, 9:32pm   #205
 
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Re: Early Morning Range Breakouts using time and sales

robocop started this thread CELG Short 1200 @ 68.75
Stop @ 68.90

Last edited by robocop; May 29, 2012 at 10:13pm. Reason: 66.90 should be 68.90
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Old May 29, 2012, 9:52pm   #206
 
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Re: Early Morning Range Breakouts using time and sales

robocop started this thread SCSS Long 1000 @ 28.45
Stop @ 28.25
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Old May 29, 2012, 9:58pm   #207
 
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Re: Early Morning Range Breakouts using time and sales

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SCSS Long 1000 @ 28.45
Stop @ 28.25
Out @ 28.46 (risk of return in one bar red)
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Old May 29, 2012, 10:00pm   #208
 
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Re: Early Morning Range Breakouts using time and sales

robocop started this thread
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Originally Posted by robocop View Post
CELG Short 1200 @ 68.75
Stop @ 68.90
Out @ 68.77 (few seconds before close market)

Last edited by robocop; May 29, 2012 at 10:13pm. Reason: Stop should be 68.90 not 66.90
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Old May 29, 2012, 11:52pm   #209
 
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Re: Early Morning Range Breakouts using time and sales

robocop started this thread Daysummary

trades-05-29.jpg

celg.jpg

scss.jpg

I had some time to trade the last hour of the Tuesday afternoon.

CELG - Bad entry, should have waited until confirmation. It did go in profit, but reversed due the general market was continue to go higher.
SCSS - Good entry, It did got in profit the second I entered the trade, but it didn't showed any continuation. I got out for no good reason than the fear of a three bars trending up, and one bar giving it all way back. It didn't happen now, but I have seen it before.

I did have TROW on my watchlist for the afternoon. This was the only one that should give a moderate profit of ca. 20ct.

trow.jpg

Month summary

Near the end of the month I am wondering if I am doing well. I have plotted my P&L in an Excel graph. I have drawn two lines, one including commisions and one without.

equity-curve.jpg

I started using a money management technique of risking $200 risk per trade at trade 35, and adjusting position size accordingly. This was the point where I have started to become consistently profitable. I did scale out from the start already (which is another type of money management technique), so the drawdowns were already somewhat flattened out.

Scaling out of a trade does cost more in commissions, but is a trade off between a smoothed equity curve by letting profits run as far as possible and commission costs.

As you can see on the graph the commisions are really eating more than half of my profits! Everything that I can do to lower commissions will raise my profits immediately.

I have also made a scatter plot. A scatter plot plots the P&L of every trade.

scatter-plot.jpg

As you can see the maximum losses are kept at around $ 200 (when starting to use mm at trade 35), while the profits are not limited.

The maximum drawdown including commission costs is $ 857.

Cheers and wish you goodluck!

Robocop
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Old May 30, 2012, 12:03pm   #210
 
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Re: Early Morning Range Breakouts using time and sales

In reviewing this strategy, I believe that one of the fundamental factors for profitability is the watch list you use to select the shares to trade.

From previous experience and educational resources, I have a choice of watch list from the following sources...

News announcements
Earnings misses / increases
Scanning

I am in the process of testing which source is the most profitable. Until this month earnings releases where providing the best moves. However since may they have been less effective. So this strategy using earnings releases may be cyclical.

This last month a indicator on tc2000.com has identified all the major morning market moves. Called Volume Buzz. I need to test this indicator for this strategy over the next 3 months to see how it performs under more time.

Other factors that make this strategy profitable include..

Time of the day
The movement of futures
The volume of the share at the time of breakout as indicated by time and sales.
The impact of whole numbers and other major minor resistance support areas

Once you have mastered these skills. The main factor in your success will be the watchlist you are using.

Your watchlist needs to have a finite number of stocks at around 20 stocks. This is enough to not overwhelm you with choice when the trades are setting up. You need to have stocks in this watchlist that have the most chance of making a major move.

Winattrading
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