Euro Daily Trader

This is a discussion on Euro Daily Trader within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by ggjr61 I tend to agree. If the indicators are worthwhile, then we should see better than 50% ...

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Old Oct 20, 2011, 5:50pm   #21
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by ggjr61 View Post
I tend to agree. If the indicators are worthwhile, then we should see better than 50% winning trades. Preferably better than 60%... It seems like the 50/50 win/loss rate with a 2:1 profit/loss ratio will barely break even and even lose when commissions, slippage, etc. are taken into consideration...
It's not my system, I only use it, but I detect a little bit of ignorance here in what you say, so I'll tell you where your concerns may be wrong.

In the example of trading at 4 per cent risk per trade.

After 10 moves, where there were 5 wins and 5 losses (that's a 50pc win rate, and I'm ignoring days when the thing only breaks even as they make no significant difference).


BUT: 3 more losses in a row between 2 wins preceded by 3 more losses. It's not doing so well right now

If you'd traded with £1000 or $1000 you would in theory have grown your account by 20.9pc

If there had been slippage of 1 every time, in other words instead of getting 39 TP you only achieved 38, and instead of stopping out with a loss of 19 you suffered 20, then you'd still have grown your account 18.4 pc

If there was slippage of 2 every time, then with 37tp and 21sl, you'd still have made 16.0 pc

Commission shouldn't come into it if you have a half decent broker. And the bid-offer spread is contained in the TP and the SL anyway.

At 50pc win rate the system is capable of giving you fantastic roll up of your account.

Even if you didn't compound your growth you'd still do very well, and the people who sell the system show their results both with and without "money management" and at 2 and 4 pc risk.

I do agree however that it would be lovely if the thing got more than 50% wins. I guess it would if the TP was reduced, but if Mike happens to read this he might share his thoughts with us on the total number of pips the method would produce with a lower TP and higher win rate. He might for example say that testing showed it was worth losing the occasional day a week in order to get 39 on an optimum number of trading sessions


Shame however again that it has lost 3 in a row, after 2 wins, preceded by 3 more losses. 2 wins in 8 goes is only 25% win rate! Does not inspire me with great confidence, and it will go into quarantine if it doesnt do better Friday, trading conditions are just too choppy

Last edited by wiseambitions; Oct 21, 2011 at 8:40am.
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Old Oct 21, 2011, 11:19am   #22
 
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Joined Oct 2011
Re: Euro Daily Trader

So where is Mike? Would like a response to my initial mail (Wise Ambitions - thanks, but would like to hear a response from Mike) but I'm guessing now we'd all like to know what logic behind the EA made it punt the wrong way three times in succession. 50:50 success rates at the moment are starting to seem like a pipe dream. Even if it had punted the right way three times in succession, I'd personally like to know why it had worked - maybe I'm just kinky that way. For the most part I'm guessing the consensus on this forum will be mostly wanting to know why it didn't. Mike? This is your cue....
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Old Oct 21, 2011, 7:39pm   #23
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread Friday night
4th SL in a row, 2 wins in 2 weeks. (1 was forced early close not at full TP either). 6 losses. 2 no trades.

While preservation of capital is the main thing when trading forex, there is no compelling reason for me to go down the plug hole with the euro either and blow away 5 pips every day by doing this and following a method which I don't understand (Megadroid and FapTurbo have done enough of that to me!). I have a pretty good idea now what indicators it uses all the same

Time to give this a system a miss, conditions just don't favour it at the moment

Why do new EAs often go down in flames soon after coming onto the market?????

Shame really because the claims were modest and the service good, but the experience is more scary than riding a tiger, the moment of truth comes very quickly, you can tell very quickly if you're liable to bite the dust, things happen in the first few minutes after the trade opens to indicate that.

Last edited by wiseambitions; Oct 22, 2011 at 11:03am.
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Old Oct 25, 2011, 9:56pm   #24
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread TUESDAY UPDATE
As is unfortunately the pattern lately this system produced BE-1 on Monday, and SL (-19) Tuesday

October is just below break even due to slippage

Impossible to endorse as a good system when this is the way it treats you.

It's had 9 SLs this month which is worse than in any other month in the statistics declared for June to September if they are what we would have all experienced with our different brokers


Wednesday

It's getting too predictable. Another losing trade. Impossible to say anything nice about the performance, although the risk-reward ratio is good (if only there were wins!). Like most of the other EAs it goes wrong within a short while of being published. Great pity really

Last edited by wiseambitions; Oct 26, 2011 at 7:55pm.
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Old Oct 26, 2011, 10:58pm   #25
 
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Joined Oct 2011
Re: Euro Daily Trader

Wow. Another loss today (Weds 26th). Methinks this EA is toast. Either that or some canny broker has figured out how to wash'n'rinse any trades to flush out the 19pips on every trade that is made like clockwork around the same time each day. Time to change the algorithm, or go get a job flipping burgers guys....
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Old Oct 29, 2011, 8:06am   #26
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread Friday: Forced closure before 10pm UK time, let's call that a break even.... depends whether you bagged a couple of pips or lost a few...

It makes the week 2 break evens, 2 losses and 1 no trade. No winners

There's one day left to possibly trade in October, and it is interesting to say that the 5 wins of the month, (that's all there were), so far, in spite of at least 10 losses, are enough to bring the total to not many pips below zero. I'd say in a range -5 to -25 depending on luck and slippage.

Just as much as we all desperately wanted the system to do better, I have watched other systems have a terrible time too, like down over 150 points. (for similar % risk and TP). It would be nice if Monday offered a win too

Hope for everyone's benefit - the promoters and the users (how many are still patient I would not know) - that November turns a corner for the better. It would be nice of Monday offered a winning trade too
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Old Nov 1, 2011, 12:34pm   #27
Joined Sep 2011
Re: Euro Daily Trader

And so....

The roller coaster ride that was October finished with a profit of 33 pips representing just 3.47% growth at 2% flat risk. Rather disappointing after the bumper September, but then still a profit after all.

It is worth pointing out of course that because of the advantageous SL/TP ratio that the system has, 33 pips on EDT is worth quite a bit more in terms of profit to the trader than on most other systems. You would need to win 78 pips on FMT for example to acheive the same profit.

This means that since starting live trading on June 1st, we have had only one losing month which was August which ended with a loss of 4 pips. The stats (full details on the website) now show that since June 1st:

Euro Daily Trader has won 767 pips representing 80.73% growth at 2% flat risk (average of over 16% per month)

Using EDT's built in MM system to maximise profit:

At 2% risk this has more than doubled a starting bank of $10,000 to $21,513.

At 3% risk the same $10,000 bank has trebled to $30,637.

And at 4% risk your $10,000 is now worth $42,819

Is there more to come? We certainly hope so. And although we are always very cautious about using past history to predict the future, guess which were by far the best two months of 2010 in our back tests? Take a look at the results page on the website for the answer to that one.

Apologies to those on this thread for an absence, I got caught up in a rather complicated daylight saving time problem which resulted in EDT EA v3.0 being released and I also took a long ago booked holiday in half term week. I will read back through the proceeding posts and try and answer any outstanding questions.

Mike
The Forex Club
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Old Nov 1, 2011, 12:42pm   #28
Joined Sep 2011
Re: Euro Daily Trader

[QUOTE=ggjr61;1705978]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Forex View Post

Mike:

If you strongly recommend this setting, you might consider changing the default to "True".
Thank you for this suggestion ggjr61, it was so obvious that it was overlooked!

Now been rectified and all new EA's going out have "true" as default.

Thanks again.

Mike
The Forex Club
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Old Nov 1, 2011, 12:54pm   #29
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Forex View Post
And so....

The roller coaster ride that was October finished with a profit of 33 pips representing just 3.47% growth at 2% flat risk. Rather disappointing after the bumper September, but then still a profit after all.

It is worth pointing out of course that because of the advantageous SL/TP ratio that the system has, 33 pips on EDT is worth quite a bit more in terms of profit to the trader than on most other systems. You would need to win 78 pips on FMT for example to acheive the same profit..

Mike
The Forex Club
Yes and FMT might have lost a person 275 pips in the month (at standard settings!)


Let's hope a bit of normality is being restored

Last edited by wiseambitions; Nov 1, 2011 at 1:11pm.
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Old Nov 1, 2011, 1:45pm   #30
Joined Sep 2011
Re: Euro Daily Trader

Quote:
Originally Posted by humbyhumb View Post
Have been following this for a while now and I have an unease in that we're in some kind of heads or tails - 39 pips if you win, 19 pips if you lose kind of set up. .
I can see from the posts that this really was a bad time to go AWOL and again apologies for that.

Firstly, let me address this 50:50 coin toss theory. EDT has been developed not only to try and read the direction of the market, but also the strength of that direction. Please realise that in order to have a winning trade, the market has to travel more than twice as far in the desired direction for that to be achieved. Please feel free to experiment yourself. Pick a currency pair, pick a time and just set a trade with a TP twice the size of the SL. Believe me this is no coin toss!

EDT has had a very rough ride in the last two weeks. In all previous tests the maximum number of losses in a row was 9. But this is actually misleading because having a BE of -1 pip, the backtest also records these "BE" trades as a loss. In actual fact, the most full losses (-19 pips) hit on the run in all our tests was 6. This was almost equalled the last two weeks, given that between the 18th and the 26th, there were 6 losses punctuated by just one BE trade. I do not want this to sound like an excuse, but with what was happening in Europe and in particular the Euro crises during October, the market has been extremely difficult for anyone to predict.

So is EDT dead? Well, errr... hang on a minute. Even after that extremely rough ride it did actually make a profit in October didn't it? And reading around other forums, there are in fact very few systems that did make a profit last month and quite a few that made a pretty heavy loss.

So why all these strange numbers? Why a TP of 39 and not 40? Why a SL of 19 and not a nice round figure of 20? And in particular, why the hell would we choose a BE value of -1 pip? Especially when that records as a loss on all the tests?

The answer to that is easy. Those are the optimum values that will produce the maximum profits for EDT users. Are we going to explain exactly what lies behind the EA's trading decisions? I will give you a very straight (although I know this will not be the most popular) answer. I'm sorry but no we are not. Just in the same way that Coca Cola would not give you their ingredient list.

We have more plans for EDT. EDT v4.0 is being forward tested as we speak and looks like adding about 19% to the profit figures. Members of The Forex Club will receive that version as a free upgrade.

.....

Just read back through the posts to see if I missed anything and the most apparent thing is your frustrations at that run of losses. I get that. I am a trader too and my own personal live account (on EDT at 4% risk) had to go through that as well.

A possible statistic to try and balance that bad news? As already mentioned, the longest recorded run of losses on all tests was 6. The longest recorded run of wins, was 8.

Mike
The Forex Club
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