Euro Daily Trader

This is a discussion on Euro Daily Trader within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Monday : No trade. There's a filter! Tuesday: Bad trade (SL) Better luck today please! Average of the last 10 ...

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Old Oct 12, 2011, 1:33pm   #11
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread Monday : No trade. There's a filter!

Tuesday: Bad trade (SL)

Better luck today please!

Average of the last 10 days up to Tuesday : 7.9 pips a day (79 pips in 9 actual trades)

I could live with that
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Old Oct 13, 2011, 7:30pm   #12
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread Wednesday no trade

Thursday SL. The 3rd in a row !!!!!!!!
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Old Oct 13, 2011, 9:01pm   #13
Joined Sep 2011
Re: Euro Daily Trader

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Originally Posted by wiseambitions View Post
Wednesday no trade

Thursday SL. The 3rd in a row !!!!!!!!
I think the most important thing about Forex Trading is being comfortable with what you are trading and that is 95% of the battle.

So let me try and move you all into a more comfortable zone. Up to yesterday, we have had 86 live trades since our website stats began on June 1st 2011. Of those 86 trades:

33 - 38% were winners (+39 pips)
28 - 33% were losers (-19 pips)
25 - 29% broke even (-1 pip)

How much more boring can you get? For those of you who haven't figured it out yet, out of every 4 trades (that's almost a week! ), we could have 2 losers, 1 BE and only 1 winner and we still wouldn’t be losing.

What is most interesting is that the live trades are now coming into line with the back testing, where figures go back to the beginning of 2010. Would you like those stats? Is anyone still awake? There were 336 trades:

135 - 40.18% were winners (+39 pips)
137 - 40.77% were losers (-19 pips)
64 - 19.05% broke even (-1 pip)

So what are we expecting from EDT? I can tell you precisely. We are expecting 4/10 trades to win, 4/10 trades to lose and 2/10 trades to break even. Now, does that mean that in the next 10 trades we are going to have 4 wins / 4 losses / 2 BE's? Probably not. We might have 5 or 6 wins in a row, which will have some of you inviting me for dinner and telling everyone this is the best thing since sliced bread. We might have 5 or 6 losses in a row (really???), by which time there will be some broken keyboards and a fatwa issued.

So now you know what's expected, get yourself into a comfort zone. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. If you’re grinding your teeth after two losses, your lot size is probably too high. If you get three wins in a row, don't order that new car just yet.

Piece of advice? Don't stress yourself out by watching the trades on screen and update your stats once a week instead of every day. Sit back, chill out and let EDT will do its thing.

Mike
The Forex Club
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Old Oct 14, 2011, 3:31pm   #14
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread Yes of course what I said was a bit tongue in cheek

Normally I'd give an EA about 4 chances but in the case of something with this R/R I suppose it has to be more like 8!

And the long term of course is what matters i.e. the rolling production over say 28 days, and the only sticky patch would have been the last week or two of August, which was known to be abnormal in any market

Of course every one is a bit worried that market conditions change, and change permanently and that therefore some methods might cease to work as well as they did. So long as this one produces shall we say on average 120 pips a month, that's 30 a week then it is capable of delivering real riches.


And if the last 19 months could be repeated (135w/137l) then it is possible that at just 2pc risk per trade you could turn £1000 into £13000, and at 4pc into rather more than £100,000. Now that would be so nice!


Comment from fellow trader to Mike's reply: "I find that, sensible, restrained, informative and confidence inspiring"


10 pm: After 4 hours, on a long trade, which generally went the right direction, I manually shut down the trade with approx 30 pips of profit. It might have been within 4 or 5 of TP at one stage, but never quite had enough push to get there, and bearing in mind the weekend shut down, G20 meeting in Paris, and possibility of all sorts of other things going on before the Asian opening (Sunday night in the western world) I decided to pull the trigger on that deal in the last few minutes before metatrader went offline. (And the spreads were getting rather wide!) I think that subsequent to a case 3 weeks ago when there was a Friday night trade which did not close (but which shot to tremendous profit 48 hours later) an option was written into the EA (upgraded version issued) in order to automatically close trades before Friday night session finishes, however I have not yet invoked that option


2 losses and 1 win this week. Technically about 10 pips down. Not bad in the circumstances. Just over 100 real pips - allowing for a bit of slippage - gained in 3 weeks (15 potential trades -- but not every day saw action) since installing the system. Quite an acceptable outcome. Hope it keeps on like so because it would indicate about 1500 pips per annum which is steady progress by any accounts.

Last edited by wiseambitions; Oct 15, 2011 at 8:57am.
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Old Oct 17, 2011, 6:42pm   #15
Joined Sep 2011
Re: Euro Daily Trader

[QUOTE=wiseambitions;1701610]Yes of course what I said was a bit tongue in cheek

Actually Wiseambitions, that was a general comment and not aimed at you.

But thank you for your (and your fellow trader's) comments.

FRIDAY'S TRADE!

Lots of different results Friday. The reason being that some have you have set the Friday Early Close function on the EA and some of you haven't. In addition, there was a big flicker on the opening candle, which meant that between us there seems to be up to 5 pips difference on the entry price.

If you had the Friday Early Close function set to "true" and the correct figure in your offset, the trade would have closed Friday night with a gain around 25 - 29 pips. This was the result I got on the live account (+25) and recorded on the website.

If you didn't, and you let the trade run over the weekend, the results were even wider. The highest candle after the reopening on Sunday night came very close to the tp of +39 and I know of at least two that hit the tp (you must have got a very good entry price) but for others (Donna for instance on her MT4i stats) this wasn't hit and the end result as the price fell back was a -1 pip BE result.

All members currently have EDT v2.0 with the Friday function available and we strongly recommend that you set this function. Full details are in the manual.

Cheers,

Mike
The Forex Club
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Old Oct 18, 2011, 8:33am   #16
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread Monday night

An emphatic win. After more than 3 hours. It very nearly closed out much sooner if it had moved a pip more

Since 3 weeks ago Monday (16 days including non-events), up by nearly 150 pips

The pattern in that timeframe included 6 losses and 7 wins which does not seem far adrift from the long term average Mike illuded to earlier

Keep it like this and we'll do fine
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Old Oct 19, 2011, 9:03pm   #17
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread Wednesday: Sadly we've had 2 losses after 1 win.

I can't say I liked the look of today''s before it started. Yesterday's either. Most of the proprietary indicators I am familiar with pointed the opposite direction.

13 pips of profit in the last 10 trades. Slightly below longer term averages.

Surely we'll get another win before the week end?
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Old Oct 20, 2011, 12:15am   #18
 
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Joined Oct 2011
Re: Euro Daily Trader

Have been following this for a while now and I have an unease in that we're in some kind of heads or tails - 39 pips if you win, 19 pips if you lose kind of set up. I'd like to have more confidence that the EA is reading some kind of of trend analysis before making a trade. Mike, can you provide some background detail of how the EA makes its trades and under what circumstances? The Forex Club website isn't overly forthcoming as to how it works and what lies behind its trading decisions. The track record of 4/10 wins, 4/10 losses 2/10 no trades isn't far removed from a 50:50 heads you win tails you lose result. If the EA is truly doing it's job and reading the market, it should surely be doing better than these odds? Not being critical, just trying to understand the EA better and how it works.
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Old Oct 20, 2011, 1:54pm   #19
Joined Feb 2011
Re: Euro Daily Trader

[QUOTE=Mike Forex;1703746]
Quote:
Originally Posted by wiseambitions View Post
All members currently have EDT v2.0 with the Friday function available and we strongly recommend that you set this function. Full details are in the manual.

Cheers,

Mike
The Forex Club
Mike:

If you strongly recommend this setting, you might consider changing the default to "True".
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Old Oct 20, 2011, 2:00pm   #20
Joined Feb 2011
Re: Euro Daily Trader

Quote:
Originally Posted by humbyhumb View Post
Have been following this for a while now and I have an unease in that we're in some kind of heads or tails - 39 pips if you win, 19 pips if you lose kind of set up. I'd like to have more confidence that the EA is reading some kind of of trend analysis before making a trade. Mike, can you provide some background detail of how the EA makes its trades and under what circumstances? The Forex Club website isn't overly forthcoming as to how it works and what lies behind its trading decisions. The track record of 4/10 wins, 4/10 losses 2/10 no trades isn't far removed from a 50:50 heads you win tails you lose result. If the EA is truly doing it's job and reading the market, it should surely be doing better than these odds? Not being critical, just trying to understand the EA better and how it works.
I tend to agree. If the indicators are worthwhile, then we should see better than 50% winning trades. Preferably better than 60%... It seems like the 50/50 win/loss rate with a 2:1 profit/loss ratio will barely break even and even lose when commissions, slippage, etc. are taken into consideration...
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