Euro Daily Trader

This is a discussion on Euro Daily Trader within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by wiseambitions Tuesday night. Such a shame, I think I was stopped out at -19 with less than ...

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old Apr 27, 2012, 9:30pm   #166
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by wiseambitions View Post
Tuesday night. Such a shame, I think I was stopped out at -19 with less than 1/2 a pip more movement before it turned back around again and would have got +9.

There are consequences to trading forex which you have to live with!
Not all of which seem fair at the time.

1800hrs Wednesday: No trade.
I wish the feeling of a couple TPs in a row wasn't such a distant memory
wiseambitions is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 1, 2012, 6:24am   #167
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread v5.0 isn't so much of a DAILY trader, 1st night with the new version and it didn't signal a trade. The previous versionwould have gone short and incurred a loss nearly 12 hours later.

The new version not only amends the exit rules but it also filters out more trades starting, inevitably causing a few wins as well as losses to be eliminated, hopefully improving the overall profit

If anyone wants to share research on this with me, I've tried to backtest for several months, please PM
====

Tuesday: Looks like v5.0 didn't trade againtoday and saved us another disaster. V4.0 would have gone short and lost, but after the drop seen around 15:00 uk time it was rather likely for the price to have retraced

Last edited by wiseambitions; May 1, 2012 at 8:23pm.
wiseambitions is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 3, 2012, 2:26pm   #168
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread Wednesday night;
v5.0 TP 25pips. v4.0 BE +9pips
So far this week v4.0 2SL, 1BE -29 pips v5.0 2NT, 1TP + 25.

This opens up a lead of 54 pips for the new version. Hopefully the improvement will hold good.

Thursday: v5 opened a long trade which closed a few minutes later with minimal loss i.e 2 pips; this might have been a software issue, (I mean the closing), and is being investigated. Just as well actually because if left to run it would have gone to stop loss after more than 15 hours. (The market was definitely stuck in a narrow channel after 16:00 GMT Thursday and didn't break out of it until after 07:00 Friday. ) A wierd thing to say is that in spite of a real trade opening at 18:00 UK time Thursday, a back test this morning indicated NT. Says a lot about the shortcomings of back testing, there seem to be blips like this occasionally.

Last edited by wiseambitions; May 4, 2012 at 11:27am.
wiseambitions is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 4, 2012, 3:27pm   #169
Joined Dec 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

Mon - NT
Tue - NT
Wed - BE
Thu - SL
Fri - ?
Hmm...
Blackstick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 4, 2012, 7:14pm   #170
Joined Sep 2011
Re: Euro Daily Trader

Quote:
Originally Posted by wiseambitions View Post
Wednesday night;
v5.0 TP 25pips. v4.0 BE +9pips
So far this week v4.0 2SL, 1BE -29 pips v5.0 2NT, 1TP + 25.

This opens up a lead of 54 pips for the new version. Hopefully the improvement will hold good.

Thursday: v5 opened a long trade which closed a few minutes later with minimal loss i.e 2 pips; this might have been a software issue, (I mean the closing), and is being investigated. Just as well actually because if left to run it would have gone to stop loss after more than 15 hours. (The market was definitely stuck in a narrow channel after 16:00 GMT Thursday and didn't break out of it until after 07:00 Friday. ) A wierd thing to say is that in spite of a real trade opening at 18:00 UK time Thursday, a back test this morning indicated NT. Says a lot about the shortcomings of back testing, there seem to be blips like this occasionally.
We got a No Trade signal Thursday on our live GKFX account which is the one we run as "official" and publish the results from on the website. That said, it was a very close call and a couple of the demo accounts we run for comparison got a long signal. This has happened a couple of times before and cannot be avoided. There has to be a cut-off point somewhere!

Friday: We are in on a short trade at 1.30881.

Mike
The Forex Club
Mike Forex is offline Trading system vendor   Reply With Quote
Old May 5, 2012, 9:46am   #171
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread Ok, the point I was making is we can forward test live accounts with a broker, then subsequently run a back test on exactly the same platform which for a long period (say 100 days) could well come up with slightly different results every time you run it - even if you do it minutes apart.

My understanding is that with most mt4 brokers the spreads between buy and sell price fluctuate all the time, and the strategy tester would probably be using spreads current at the present time, not those which applied at the time the trade might have happened. Therefore the backtest on some runs might pick up or miss individual trades, or allow varying number of pips for some of the sessions. Slightly worrying, the backtests seem to always show losses of either exactly 19 pips or seldom more than 19.5, yet I think real life would throw up plenty occasions where there's a bit more slippage than that (and I mean in an unfavourable direction).

Also we accept sometimes there are indicators which are right on the border (Thursday being the example), and some live charts would trade them and others would not, subject to the sensitive price movements logged by some brokers and not others. Incidentially there would now seem to be a new filter in v5.0 if not in v4 as well which stops trading completely in a middle zone because I haven't seen cases lately of some charts going short when others go long, which I have remembered seeing in the past.

General impressions of v5 from the first week are that it is an improvement. We may get a better overall result from trading 20% fewer occasions than v4 and hopefully missing more losing than winning trades. But we've lost the 1:2 risk reward ratio and live in the hope that the TS kicks in and takes us in and rides the wave for a few extra pips as often as possible.

Last edited by wiseambitions; May 5, 2012 at 1:21pm.
wiseambitions is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 8, 2012, 8:59am   #172
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread Oh dear, I made a post and shared a few PMs lately saying there was a link between Bank holidays and bad trades. And last night was another of such. Bearing in mind May Day holiday on Monday is not a global observation, I couldn't see any connection and logic to it, but it was just another loss. The session opened long on a high point, languished about 0 to 10 pips under the open for 4 or 5 hours then looked like it was going to go our way, but it didn't hold. Don't know where our luck has gone?
With this being the first London session after the defeat of Sarkozy I suppose the euro could test new lows again today.

6pm, Tuesday: I think v4 would have traded and gone to SL, v5.0 doesn't seem to have traded. Presumably a change of indicators or a new filter again. Anyway it saved the day.

Last edited by wiseambitions; May 9, 2012 at 6:56am.
wiseambitions is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 9, 2012, 6:13pm   #173
Joined Sep 2011
Re: Euro Daily Trader

Wednesday:

We have another "No Trading" signal this evening. As you will be aware, there is considerable upset in the Euro market at the moment and EDT v5.0 is protecting us against this. So although this is rather like watching paint dry, the new indicator and filter settings on EDT v5.0 are doing their job. We shall just have to be patient.

Mike
The Forex Club
Mike Forex is offline Trading system vendor   Reply With Quote
Old May 9, 2012, 6:46pm   #174
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread oh right. Well it saved us another disaster. I guess v4 would have traded and stopped out within 45 mins. It opens up a difference of about 75 pips between the old version and the new, in less than 2 weeks.
wiseambitions is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 11, 2012, 9:21am   #175
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread Another SL Thurs

I'm of the opinion this market is controlled by his majesty the devil.

Nothing which used to follow a pattern i.e. the behaviour of the market with EDT over the last year or two seems to follow that pattern any more.

Everyone's getting a bit tired of this. Let alone seeing their accounts fade away.

If there's a glimmer of hope, it is to say that the latest modification has the capability to reduce the losses, hopefully it will also have the ability to trap a few profits too...
Since 1 March, to 10th May, 50 days, I think v4.0 could have lost 316 pips, whereas v5.0 might have lost 119. That's nearly 200 better or less bad, however you want to look at it. That's a backtest, E&OE.

Last edited by wiseambitions; May 11, 2012 at 5:01pm.
wiseambitions is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 15, 2012, 8:08am   #176
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread I think v4.0 would have traded and hit +9 reset Monday night, but v5.0 abstained. There's still a difference of somewhere around 60-70 pips (backtested) in favour of v5, since the start of the month. So 'less bad' kind of means better, but we'd like to see some more wins. Need to recover from this drawdown

Tuesday evening: A win at last! edt v5.0, about 28-9 pips. v4.0 might have invoked the TS and got more than 38. The gap between them narrows slightly. Let's have some more of these

Last edited by wiseambitions; May 16, 2012 at 7:46am.
wiseambitions is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 18, 2012, 8:06pm   #177
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread I think profit taking (a long after a week of deep decline) will be our redemption this week....
wiseambitions is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 19, 2012, 12:08am   #178
Joined Sep 2011
Re: Euro Daily Trader

Not a great believer in luck although the last couple of months have strained that belief in that if there is such a thing; we have had our fair share of the bad kind.

When you consider that spikes should be random events (random in terms of the direction they go) most of these went against us and when you have a 2:1 ratio that makes a massive difference to the pip total.

However, one went our way tonight (Friday) and we took the lion's share of it due to the trailing stop function on the EA.

Long signal this evening and our entry on the live GKFX account is spot at 1.27317 given that the candle opened at 1.27302 and the spread is 1.5 pips. A very nice spike around 20:10 (London) hit the 25 pip target and the best trailing stop so far took the trade way up to close at 1.27796 - a win of 47.9 pips. This will show as a rounded 48 pips on the website results page.

Nice one!

Have a good weekend all.

Mike
The Forex Club
Mike Forex is offline Trading system vendor   Reply With Quote
Old May 19, 2012, 8:31am   #179
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread Yes fortunately it went our way but I wonder if one or two members got stopped out at a time when it looked at the stop loss devil eyeball to eyeball

I have heard an expression 'The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent' and seeing we have had 2 months of this nonsense now I'm not alone in wondering whether and when the technical conditions which favour the system, including all its upgrades, will return.
wiseambitions is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 23, 2012, 8:54am   #180
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread What a lottery......
v5.0 wins 10 pips, v4.0 wins 70 pips Tuesday night (in theory anyway!).

This means that my tally for the month is now
v5 +16 pips, v4 -21 pips (gap is closing!) v3.0 -35 pips.

Still possible to claim the new version is best, going on the last 3 weeks.
wiseambitions is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Euro-Bobl, Euro-Schatz, Euro-Bund or Euro-Stoxx 50? Maximus Tradius General Trading Chat 2 Sep 14, 2011 10:45pm
My thoughts on the Euro on daily chart homeforex Forex 10 May 21, 2010 8:48am
daily euro/usd sarathbabu First Steps 0 Jan 27, 2009 8:43am
EURO/USD daily chart. Neurobroker Forex 6 Apr 6, 2005 11:06am

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)