Euro Daily Trader

This is a discussion on Euro Daily Trader within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Trade time after UK clock change: Today, many Broker platforms will have a different time relative to London time than ...

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Old Mar 26, 2012, 11:57am   #151
Joined Sep 2011
Re: Euro Daily Trader

Trade time after UK clock change:

Today, many Broker platforms will have a different time relative to London time than they did last week. A few Brokers, e.g. Alpari UK and GKFX (Smart Live Markets) adjust their platforms to follow the UK adjustment for summertime, but most Brokers do not. So how does this affect EDT?

As you know, the EDT EA has an auto adjustment setting which will set the trade time for you correctly, and your trade time will already have been adjusted for you. For example, for those of you using Pepperstone, IBFX and ThinkForex (and others) you may have noticed that the onscreen "London Offset" is showing one hour different than it was last week. This is correct and despite what the indicator "time to next trade" may say, your trade will start at the correct time today. However, obviously it is better if the indicator is correctly set as well.

So what you need to do now, is adjust the EDT indicator to match (as described in the manual). So open the indicator box, and if necessary change the LondonBrokerOffset to match the London Offset on your screen. This will move the blue line to show the correct time to the next trade.

In the next EA upgrade, we will try and change this indicator function so there will be no confusion next year.

Mike
The Forex Club
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Old Mar 28, 2012, 5:29pm   #152
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread We all need a win guys

However the remarkable thing to say is that since the last TP (nearly 5 weeks ago - yikes!) there have been the occasional mercies of +9s on BE resets and in theory one is only 35 pips down - which the next TP will restore.

If we were using older versions of the software the picture would be much worse, so well done for the improvement, we just hope the market will do what it used to do, and give us a boost.


----

Update. 20:40pm. Sorry, words fail, another bad day. down 54pips since the last win which was 5 weeks ago. (The +9s have partly redeemed the situation). The market is still behaving like a drunken lunatic. I wonder if this is the worst period not only since the daily log started (1 June) but maybe in months before that detail was recorded. And it would have been worse with v1.

Last edited by wiseambitions; Mar 28, 2012 at 8:43pm.
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Old Mar 30, 2012, 11:40am   #153
Joined Dec 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

Still waiting for my first full TP but the markets do seem somewhat erratic at the moment. Let's hope April brings a shower of pips!
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Old Mar 30, 2012, 8:14pm   #154
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread I wish I could understand why the market was so unfavourable, and wish I had the confidence that this is only a temporary thing. We are at a stage where a lot of people have decided to switch it off, and yet part of me says they will miss a recovery, this thing can surely never go into terminal decline? However the reality is that it has still given up growth it got up to 3 months ago. - 3 or 4 wins would make a world of difference.
Also I still think a slightly better result (fewer losses) for the midde two weeks March might have been had for trading 1 hour sooner because of the NY clocks not then having changed.
It feels like a critical time for the future of the system, I just hope it soon improves.
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Old Apr 1, 2012, 4:47pm   #155
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread 50day MA, since 1/Jan. Don't we wish it would go north again


I wonder if Mike has any enlightening comments for everyones benefit as to what was going on in the markets in March?


-------

EDT was about 120 pips down in March, sadly its worst month in all my back tests

By comparison, FMT, which is a morning GBPUSD momentum system which once had a lot going for it has lost about 170 pips using current recommended settings.
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Last edited by wiseambitions; Apr 1, 2012 at 8:15pm.
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Old Apr 2, 2012, 2:08pm   #156
 
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Joined Oct 2011
Re: Euro Daily Trader

Yep Wise, some motivational words from Mike might be appropriate. I must be a Jonah. March was the month I waded in at 4% risk and guess what - the EA tanks big time. Mike, I guess/hope you must be conducting some kind of autopsy? Have market conditions changed such that a) the EA doesn't work any more?; and/or b) you have been/are back testing an updated version that would weather these kind of storms..?
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Old Apr 2, 2012, 5:48pm   #157
Joined Sep 2011
Re: Euro Daily Trader

I would like to address the questions and theories that have been made concerning the March results. I know that I am on risky ground here, as I'm quite sure that someone will read this and realising that it's coming from the system vendors, will make a comment along the lines that this is just a bunch of excuses. There are also the commercial considerations in that although we want to try and be as frank as possible, we don't want to give away all our secrets. But here we go anyway.

Firstly I would like to say that having closely examined the past 12 months, we are absolutely convinced that there was a big change in the Forex market around the beginning of October 2011. Much larger swings in currency prices have been evident since October, in particular affecting currency pairs linked to the Euro of which EURUSD is the biggest. We are convinced that the Euro crises in the EEC, heightened by the Greek crises was the main factor in this.

At the time that we went live with EDT in the summer of last year, we were also testing another system that was showing similar promise. However, we had only tested 2 months forward data on that system and decided to give it another 2 or 3 months of live tests before releasing it. That system, which is connected to a completely different currency pair to EDT took a complete dive from mid-October onwards and we have now abandoned it altogether.

There have been the usual comments about the dangers of curve fitting when designing a system and I would like to say that we are fully aware of this danger. In order to avoid this, we use a completely different set of data (in terms of dates) when optimising settings for the EA, to the data used when running a profit test. To put this in the simplest terms I can, an example would be to use data from 2010 to optimise the parameter settings (TP, SL, BE, plus filters etc.) and then run a "forward" test on data from 2011 to see if the settings hold up.

With this in mind you can now realise why it would be very foolish to look at the results for March in isolation, change the parameter settings to "fit" those results better and then run that newly adjusted EA for April. That would be ludicrous. It would be a knee jerk reaction to the bad month and would be very unlikely to work in the medium to long term and would be only a matter of luck if it worked in the short term.

As mentioned earlier, study of the data in the second half of 2011 was showing much larger swings in the EURUSD daily prices, especially in the afternoon period when both the UK and US exchanges were open. As you know, in January 2012 we released v4.0 in which apart from the obvious changes that you could see to the system the EA indicators were adjusted and new filters introduced to try and combat these wilder swings. Last month saw a very unusual trend. After 2 months of relative "calm" we saw a return to these much greater daily swings with the price during the "main" trading hours (8am to 6pm) showing large rises or falls but over the month the price has barely changed.

Since November, we have been working on other filters that would try and combat these larger swings, but December and January did not experience these swings and our forward runs over those periods only showed a slight improvement. We now however have March results and we can now run our results from 2011 October/November 2011 results over the March 2012 data. This is happening as I write this and if something shows that would give us an improvement without damaging the long term effect of the EA, it shall be implemented.

EDT has had similar drawdowns in October and November but because of the high profit/loss ratio of more than 2:1 has recovered much more quickly and as a result has had only 2 losing months since going live (August 2011 and now March 2012).

So is EDT broken? Certainly not on that evidence.

Are we working to ensure improvements?

Absolutely!

Mike
The Forex Club
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Old Apr 3, 2012, 8:46pm   #158
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread Monday 7pm UK time. FOMC minutes forced the dollar up and every related currency down

Must have been the most volatile moment for EurUsd since around 16th March and fortunately EDT had traded in the same direction.
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Old Apr 4, 2012, 6:07pm   #159
Joined Dec 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

Short for me today - fingers crossed!

SL

Last edited by Blackstick; Apr 5, 2012 at 8:29am.
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Old Apr 6, 2012, 10:57am   #160
Joined Sep 2011
Re: Euro Daily Trader

Thursday's trade is still on-going this morning (Friday) and as this is a Bank Holiday in a lot of countries, the action will be slow as expected.

PayPal:

It seems a few members have been receiving various notifications from PayPal regarding the original six month memberships. We have no idea why PayPal are doing this (presumably it is an automatic computer generated thing) and we would like to assure all members that our account with PayPal ceased in December 2011 and no payments will be taken from any members account.

Regards,

Mike
The Forex Club
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Old Apr 10, 2012, 5:10pm   #161
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread I have just done a quick exercise to see whether there's a bias towards losing on Bank Holidays.
This has been the outcome on 26,27 December, 2 January, 6 and 9 April, so that's 95 pips given up, whereas 29th August was actually a BE.

Also America has a long list of bank holidays or public observances, and whether or not their markets were closed on all of the following extra days I'm not sure
4th July Loss
5th Sept Win
10th Oct NT
11 Nov NT
24 Nov Win

I don't know if that's enough to prove anything?
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Old Apr 10, 2012, 11:57pm   #162
 
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Joined Apr 2012
Re: Euro Daily Trader

Greetings. I'm new here and I'm keeping my eye on the EURUSD numbers. Generally it looks like the more losses than wins over the past couple of weeks, although I know I need to look at longer timeframes to get a sense of how successful the EA is. I'll keep watching and reading. Best wishes to all the traders out there.
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Old Apr 15, 2012, 5:58pm   #163
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread Donna Forex: Mike says they're working the weekend. I didnt know whether to take this as a general statement or if they were working on the strategy.

He shows great fortitude that this experience of multiple losses will pass, however I'm sure they have the computer power and historical data to simuate whether the indicators or filters can be improved. And we'd all be interested if that's the case, I struggle to understand why it should go into terminal decline, but that can still happen if market behaviour after lunch in the NY session changes forever. It would be really interesting to know what say the 10 years performance of this system might have been, the Euro has been around long enough by now
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Old Apr 23, 2012, 10:17pm   #164
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread Sadly the magic hasn't been working in this method lately, Monday 23, anotherSL.

Somehow there was a sense the Euro was oversold as it had taken a bashing on news (eg French presidential elections) in the Asian, UK and in the start of the NY sessions, and it didn't want to go down any more. Thus there was a gradual drifting for 2 or 3 hours until -19 stopped out. I keep wondering whether there's an indicator or a boundary to one of the usual readings which would stop the system trading in such cases.
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Old Apr 25, 2012, 2:18pm   #165
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread Tuesday night. Such a shame, I think I was stopped out at -19 with less than 1/2 a pip more movement before it turned back around again and would have got +9.

There are consequences to trading forex which you have to live with!
Not all of which seem fair at the time.

1800hrs Wednesday: No trade.

Last edited by wiseambitions; Apr 25, 2012 at 6:30pm.
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