Supply & Demand

This is a discussion on Supply & Demand within the Technical Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; I recently read an article on Elite Trader by a regular contributor there, and found it such a great read ...

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Old Apr 13, 2004, 4:22pm   #1
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Supply & Demand

I recently read an article on Elite Trader by a regular contributor there, and found it such a great read I've decided it ought to be posted here.

All credit for the article must however go to DBPheonix, from www.elitetrader.com

Makes for some entertaining and informative reading.
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Old Apr 13, 2004, 4:38pm   #2
 
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One I did earlier

http://www.trade2win.co.uk/boards/sh...5&pagenumber=2

The above post is a few days old but refers to same thing.

Hope this helps'
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Old Apr 13, 2004, 5:20pm   #3
 
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Your readers might also be interested in the Trendlines file at my Yahoo site (a pain in the ass, but the only place I can make these files available to anyone who wants them) since trend is a function of supply and demand:

http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/DbPhoenix/
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Old Apr 13, 2004, 5:28pm   #4
 
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And there are -- so far -- five weeks' worth of charts to illustrate the subject at my PV thread:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showth...threadid=29005

(sorry -- as you were)
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Old Apr 13, 2004, 7:33pm   #5
 
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Its good to see you posting as a number of members are following your supply and demand thread on ET.
The contents of this thread may be of interest
http://www.trade2win.co.uk/boards/sh...&threadid=7751
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Old Apr 13, 2004, 7:51pm   #6
 
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Yes, it is interesting (try running a thread like that at ET . . . ). It's going to take a while to get thru it, tho.

Thx.
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Old Apr 20, 2004, 10:04am   #7
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Something funny in original Elite Trader thread

It appears that in original thread posts by people the author doesn't like are being deleted. I haven't posted there, but anybody who questions the validity of the method gets the censure in his thread.

People following the thread may have noticed that total number of posts have become less than they were a few days ago. Posts which have disppappeared had common theme. All of them questioned whether the author had any comments before the fact. It is very easy to draw trendlines after the market is closed. I have benefitted from these posts by the author but it appears he doesn't want to demonstrate that he can actually make these observations when it really counts. ie before the fact.

Just my humble observation

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Old Apr 22, 2004, 2:32pm   #8
 
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"The author" has explained this over and over again, but he will explain it one more time.

The point of the thread is not to show what a great trader I am and what great calls I make. The point of the thread is to show how one can trade using only price and volume. If I were to venture into my particular strategy, that would defeat the purpose of the thread, which is to enable anyone, regardless of individual strategy or tactics, to apply these principles to his own trading.

As for the deletions, most of them have to do with "great thread", "thanks", etc. While I appreciate those posts, I make it a point to thank people via PM, then I ask that these posts be deleted after a time so that newcomers don't have to slog through a lot of off-topic posts.

As for deleting "disagreements", yes, I ask that posts which are off-topic, e.g., posts that focus on indicators, be deleted. Since they are off-topic, they are irrelevant. If whoever is making the posts wants to start his own journal, he's welcome to do so. But this rarely occurs because it's so much easier to disrupt somebody else's journal than to find and maintain the discipline to create a journal of one's own. As for drawing TLs ahead of time, if you can find anyone who can do so (which necessitates determining where price will be at several points in the future), forget about trading; give this person all of your money plus whatever you can borrow besides.

It's unfortunate that you find the information to be of no value. I assume that you don't find books of any value either. Since the thread has over 50,000 views, I assume that somebody is benefitting from it, tho not everyone will.
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Old Apr 22, 2004, 4:19pm   #9
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dbphoenix,

I have found your posts of value and I read a review you did on Amazon on Techniques of Tape Reading which was enough to make me buy the book. I did want to send you a PM but you dont have that option enabled so I wasnt able to.


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Old Apr 22, 2004, 5:03pm   #10
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Originally posted by dbphoenix
"The author" has explained this over and over again, but he will explain it one more time.

The point of the thread is not to show what a great trader I am and what great calls I make. The point of the thread is to show how one can trade using only price and volume..................

As for the deletions, most of them have to do with "great thread", "thanks", etc............

As for deleting "disagreements", yes, I ask that posts which are off-topic, e.g., posts that focus on indicators, be deleted. Since they are off-topic, they are irrelevant. If whoever is making the posts wants to start his own journal, he's welcome to do so. But this rarely occurs because it's so much easier to disrupt somebody else's journal than to find and maintain the discipline to create a journal of one's own.......

As for drawing TLs ahead of time, if you can find anyone who can do so (which necessitates determining where price will be at several points in the future), forget about trading; give this person all of your money plus whatever you can borrow besides.

It's unfortunate that you find the information to be of no value. I assume that you don't find books of any value either. Since the thread has over 50,000 views, I assume that somebody is benefitting from it, tho not everyone will.
Dear DBPhoenix

I think is it is a great effort by you to put that thread on the forums & , contrary to what you you mentioned, I have benefitted from the posts. Having internalized Wyckoff, Neill & Graifer, I very well understand the importance of price volume. They, alongside fibonacci & trendlines, form the mainstay of my trading.

To be honest, I personally wouldn't have the drive to sustain the thread with all trading related activeties as well. So congratulations.

However, I don't fully agree with deleting posts on the thread which seem to question, not te strategy, but maybe how you would apply these to real-time trading. I understand your view that you want to keep specific techniques out of it, but usefulness of any teaching is if it helps make money. If you just delete posts which criticise you, new readers will never know that there other viewpoints by other traders. And I don't think there any offensive posts at all.

Now you don't 'owe' anybody anything & I know you don't want to be called a great trader, it would have helped to get this issue clear & get the monkey off your back.

Now we all know that it is very easy to 'teach' trading than to actually do it profitably. So cynicism is natural & with so many successful teachers than traders, evrything is to be taken with a pinch of salt. This is especially important for the newbies who read all this stuff on the internet & think that the author has found the holy grail & is now sharing it with them.

As regarding drawing trendlines ahead of time, well thats the purpose of drawing them so we have a map for the market. Whats important, however, is what price does when it reaches a trendline in future. Anybody trying to 'predict' market direction is doomed to fail.

As mentioned, I did find your information useful & I do find books useful as well. If not for books, the journey would have taken a lot longer. And there are books which are written by traders who never could make money, but I still have found at least one bit of information in each of them which has helped me with my trading.

Try to take my comments in a positive way & again well done for continuing with the thread as price & rate of volume are the keys to this kingdom.

Regards
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Old Apr 22, 2004, 5:40pm   #11
 
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It is without doubt that "the author" has much of value to share with people who are capable of benefitting from it. I hope that the members of this site will, on realising this, do nothing that may prevent further valuable insights being generously shared with them.
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Old Apr 22, 2004, 5:47pm   #12
 
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Quote:
Originally posted by FibCouple


Dear DBPhoenix

I think is it is a great effort by you to put that thread on the forums & , contrary to what you you mentioned, I have benefitted from the posts. Having internalized Wyckoff, Neill & Graifer, I very well understand the importance of price volume. They, alongside fibonacci & trendlines, form the mainstay of my trading.

To be honest, I personally wouldn't have the drive to sustain the thread with all trading related activeties as well. So congratulations.

However, I don't fully agree with deleting posts on the thread which seem to question, not te strategy, but maybe how you would apply these to real-time trading. I understand your view that you want to keep specific techniques out of it, but usefulness of any teaching is if it helps make money. If you just delete posts which criticise you, new readers will never know that there other viewpoints by other traders. And I don't think there any offensive posts at all.

Now you don't 'owe' anybody anything & I know you don't want to be called a great trader, it would have helped to get this issue clear & get the monkey off your back.

Now we all know that it is very easy to 'teach' trading than to actually do it profitably. So cynicism is natural & with so many successful teachers than traders, evrything is to be taken with a pinch of salt. This is especially important for the newbies who read all this stuff on the internet & think that the author has found the holy grail & is now sharing it with them.

As regarding drawing trendlines ahead of time, well thats the purpose of drawing them so we have a map for the market. Whats important, however, is what price does when it reaches a trendline in future. Anybody trying to 'predict' market direction is doomed to fail.

As mentioned, I did find your information useful & I do find books useful as well. If not for books, the journey would have taken a lot longer. And there are books which are written by traders who never could make money, but I still have found at least one bit of information in each of them which has helped me with my trading.

Try to take my comments in a positive way & again well done for continuing with the thread as price & rate of volume are the keys to this kingdom.

Regards
Posts which question how I would apply the principles to trading are not deleted simply because they ask the question. However, when I've explained my reasons for not getting into specific strategies (which are infinite), again and again and again, and the questions continue, then either people aren't reading the thread or they are looking for recipes.

I have offered, repeatedly, to contribute to any journal begun by anyone who wants to experiment with applying these principles to their own strategy, their own tactic sets, their own trading. So far, no one has taken me up on it. As for my trading, it really doesn't make any difference whether I apply these principles to my own trading or not. I may be the lousiest trader on the planet. It doesn't matter. What matters is the truth of the principles. Those who don't understand that, assuming that they're interested in the first place, aren't going to benefit. And most people don't and aren't. They prefer to use indicators. That's fine. But that's not what the thread is about. I have made this clear enough to be understood by nearly everyone. Those who continue to "misunderstand" apparently have some other agenda (such as the individual who's ticked off because so few people pay any attention to his thread or his calls).

As for the graille, maybe. But, again, the thread is about truth. One can determine the truth through his own trading. He need not take my word for anything, nor must he take anything on faith. The law of supply and demand is a law, not a hypothesis. If one can't understand it, much less apply it to his own trading, it is a failing all his own and has nothing to do with the law.

As for drawing TLs ahead of time, yes, daily TLs - at least tentative ones - can be drawn ahead of time, and I have done so. Every weekend. Whether anyone applies these TLs to his own charts is beyond my control. As for intraday TLs, no, they can't be drawn until the swing points occur.

Could I talk somebody through all this in real time, pointing out the swing highs and lows and tentative trendlines and potential S/R? Of course I could. And I've offered to do so many times. But nobody shows up. And I have better things to do with my time than read idle chatter during my trading day.

I will offer once more to contribute to any journal begun by someone who wants to apply these principles to a particular strategy, a particular set of tactics. If no one is interested enough to do so, then that's life.
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Old Apr 22, 2004, 7:47pm   #13
 
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Quote:
The point of the thread is to show how one can trade using only price and volume.
Does this imply that you do not need tools like Level II etc, and that a price and volume chart is sufficient for successful trading provided you know how to interpret the data properly ?
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Old Apr 22, 2004, 7:51pm   #14
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Even if you only use price and volume to trade I would say that Level II is still essential if for no other reason than to optimise and reduce risk at entry.


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Old Apr 22, 2004, 8:06pm   #15
 
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Quote:
Originally posted by Salty Gibbon


Does this imply that you do not need tools like Level II etc, and that a price and volume chart is sufficient for successful trading provided you know how to interpret the data properly ?
Yes.
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